Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 63%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$802.31

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,769

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down7 traders

Total Value$352.75

Total Shares353

Combined PnL+$222.99

Up — 59%Down — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$148.57	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.3¢	$749.43	$1.7K	+$980.91
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$965.58	$808.98	-$156.6	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$616.71	—	-$616.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$348.86	$808.98	+$460.12
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 45.9¢	$669.01	$740.2	+$71.19	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$329.41	—	-$329.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$339.6	$740.2	+$400.6
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 54.2¢	$488.75	$430.27	-$58.48	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$303.42	—	-$303.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$185.33	$430.27	+$244.94
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 47.7¢	$236.15	—	-$236.15	78% 9098-2615 (11713)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$235.84	$305.96	+$70.12	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$114.84	—	-$114.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$121	$305.96	+$184.96
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$127.29	$227.21	+$99.92	51% 13809-13174 (26983)
└ Up leg	Upavg 10.8¢	$25.31	—	-$25.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$101.98	$227.21	+$125.23
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 30.6¢	$188.95	$405	+$216.05	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.9¢	$65.1	—	-$65.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.6¢	$123.85	$405	+$281.15
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Upavg 63.9¢	$216.51	—	-$216.51	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
SP spartacrayCTR	Upavg 66¢	$190.48	—	-$190.48	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
PB PBot-6CTR	Upavg 46.6¢	$186.13	—	-$186.13	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 70.6¢	$229.33	$244.83	+$15.5	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.6¢	$122.88	—	-$122.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$106.45	$244.83	+$138.38
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 58.1¢	$222.56	$202.26	-$20.3	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.8¢	$104.97	—	-$104.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$117.59	$202.26	+$84.67
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 49¢	$145.7	$122.45	-$23.25	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$83.9	—	-$83.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$61.81	$122.45	+$60.65
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 58.5¢	$134.72	$106.47	-$28.25	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.5¢	$85.4	—	-$85.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$49.32	$106.47	+$57.15
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 58.9¢	$83.1	—	-$83.1	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 31.1¢	$44.09	$141.7	+$97.61	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
pspspsps5	Downavg 35.3¢	$45.23	$128.22	+$82.99	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 61.9¢	$49.49	—	-$49.49	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
31 3123123121313CTR<$100	Upavg 81¢	$24.99	—	-$24.99	55% 652-524 (1176)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 50¢	$21.22	$25.5	+$8.03	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$21	—	-$21	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$12.8	—	-$12.8	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 34¢	$8.84	$26	+$17.16	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 48¢	$9.6	$20	+$10.4	58% 16454-12070 (28524)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,878.91

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$148.57

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$1,129.4857.1¢$-1.1K

Down$749.4343.3¢+$980.91

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$965.58

Value

$808.98

PnL

-$156.6

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$616.7154.4¢-$616.71

Down$348.8643.1¢+$460.12

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$669.01

Value

$740.2

PnL

+$71.19

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$329.4156.1¢-$329.41

Down$339.645.9¢+$400.6

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$488.75

Value

$430.27

PnL

-$58.48

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Up$303.4254.2¢-$303.42

Down$185.3343.1¢+$244.94

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$236.15

Value

—

PnL

-$236.15

Record

78%

9098-2615 (11713)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$235.84

Value

$305.96

PnL

+$70.12

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Both legs:

Up$114.8434.5¢-$114.84

Down$12139.5¢+$184.96

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.29

Value

$227.21

PnL

+$99.92

Record

51%

13809-13174 (26983)

Both legs:

Up$25.3110.8¢-$25.31

Down$101.9844.9¢+$125.23

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.95

Value

$405

PnL

+$216.05

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Up$65.140.9¢-$65.1

Down$123.8530.6¢+$281.15

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Invested

$216.51

Value

—

PnL

-$216.51

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

spartacrayCTR

Invested

$190.48

Value

—

PnL

-$190.48

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

PBot-6CTR

Invested

$186.13

Value

—

PnL

-$186.13

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$229.33

Value

$244.83

PnL

+$15.5

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

Both legs:

Up$122.8870.6¢-$122.88

Down$106.4543.5¢+$138.38

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$222.56

Value

$202.26

PnL

-$20.3

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Up$104.9771.8¢-$104.97

Down$117.5958.1¢+$84.67

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$145.7

Value

$122.45

PnL

-$23.25

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

Both legs:

Up$83.949¢-$83.9

Down$61.8150.5¢+$60.65

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$134.72

Value

$106.47

PnL

-$28.25

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

Both legs:

Up$85.458.5¢-$85.4

Down$49.3246.3¢+$57.15

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$83.1

Value

—

PnL

-$83.1

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$44.09

Value

$141.7

PnL

+$97.61

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$45.23

Value

$128.22

PnL

+$82.99

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$49.49

Value

—

PnL

-$49.49

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

3123123121313CTR<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

—

PnL

-$24.99

Record

55%

652-524 (1176)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$21.22

Value

$25.5

PnL

+$8.03

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$21

Value

—

PnL

-$21

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$12.8

Value

—

PnL

-$12.8

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$8.84

Value

$26

PnL

+$17.16

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$9.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$10.4

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc7976fc8...e86436

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793000700

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $0

spartacray

Up — $0