Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 81%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
$269.15
Smart Money Signal
17 of 22 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$0.34 | 83% 39878-8374 (48252) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 97.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$45 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 63.1¢ | $503.8 | $669.16 | +$165.36 | 56% 14709-11382 (26091) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 95.8¢ | $397.43 | $414.7 | +$17.26 | 50% 68021-68968 (136989) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 67¢ | $309.97 | $350 | +$40.03 | 56% 7872-6275 (14147) |
 MayorMamdani | Upavg 98.2¢ | $252.34 | $257 | +$4.66 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 84¢ | $236.8 | $253.38 | +$16.58 | 53% 26492-23689 (50181) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 90.9¢ | $177.61 | $195.14 | +$17.53 | 62% 27876-17330 (45206) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 57.9¢ | $168.49 | $253.69 | +$85.2 | 55% 13093-10519 (23612) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Upavg 93.7¢ | $153.94 | $133.2 | -$20.73 | 56% 11714-9251 (20965) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 68.8¢ | $109.91 | $119.71 | +$9.8 | 56% 11840-9145 (20985) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 68.8¢ | $82.3 | $119.71 | +$37.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $27.61 | — | -$27.61 | |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $53.41 | $64.65 | +$11.24 | 55% 22971-18570 (41541) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $41.76 | $62.04 | +$20.29 | 55% 6790-5568 (12358) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $33 | $60 | +$27 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100 | Downavg 38.2¢ | $43.53 | — | -$43.53 | 49% 4659-4793 (9452) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $33.6 | — | -$33.6 | 56% 34391-26783 (61174) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.7¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 60% 11574-7558 (19132) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $20.79 | $14 | -$6.79 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 45.8¢ | $11.97 | $26.14 | +$14.17 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $8.96 | $24 | +$15.04 | 14% 16230-96920 (113150) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.6¢ | $7.9 | — | -$7.9 | 58% 11584-8476 (20060) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $5.16 | $12 | +$6.84 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $9 | — | -$8.82 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
Invested
$3,007.67
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$0.34
Record
83%
39878-8374 (48252)
Invested
$1,499.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$45
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Invested
$503.8
Value
$669.16
PnL
+$165.36
Record
56%
14709-11382 (26091)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$397.43
Value
$414.7
PnL
+$17.26
Record
50%
68021-68968 (136989)
machinelearnedInvested
$309.97
Value
$350
PnL
+$40.03
Record
56%
7872-6275 (14147)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$252.34
Value
$257
PnL
+$4.66
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
Invested
$236.8
Value
$253.38
PnL
+$16.58
Record
53%
26492-23689 (50181)
Invested
$177.61
Value
$195.14
PnL
+$17.53
Record
62%
27876-17330 (45206)
Invested
$168.49
Value
$253.69
PnL
+$85.2
Record
55%
13093-10519 (23612)
Invested
$153.94
Value
$133.2
PnL
-$20.73
Record
56%
11714-9251 (20965)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$109.91
Value
$119.71
PnL
+$9.8
Record
56%
11840-9145 (20985)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.41
Value
$64.65
PnL
+$11.24
Record
55%
22971-18570 (41541)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$62.04
PnL
+$20.29
Record
55%
6790-5568 (12358)
Invested
$33
Value
$60
PnL
+$27
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$43.53
Value
—
PnL
-$43.53
Record
49%
4659-4793 (9452)
Invested
$33.6
Value
—
PnL
-$33.6
Record
56%
34391-26783 (61174)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
60%
11574-7558 (19132)
Invested
$20.79
Value
$14
PnL
-$6.79
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
Invested
$11.97
Value
$26.14
PnL
+$14.17
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$24
PnL
+$15.04
Record
14%
16230-96920 (113150)
Invested
$7.9
Value
—
PnL
-$7.9
Record
58%
11584-8476 (20060)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.84
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$8.82
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $3.0K
wzbbb
Up — $1.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $669.16
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $414.7
machinelearned
Up — $350
MayorMamdani
Up — $257
spartacray
Up — $253.38
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Up — $195.14
GoodFallen
Up — $253.69
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Up — $133.2