Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$196.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 24 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,437

Combined PnL-$79.47

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$116.77

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 71.4¢	$717.17	$653.3	-$63.87	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 84.9¢	$655.57	$546.99	-$108.58	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 71.8¢	$274.65	$288.64	+$13.99	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 78.4¢	$255.53	$247.04	-$8.49	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
SP spartacray	Downavg 71.2¢	$178.93	$202.19	+$23.27	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 85.7¢	$190.93	$181.54	-$9.4	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 95.4¢	$179.13	$178.63	-$0.5	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 79.3¢	$154.81	$165.66	+$14.2	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 74.7¢	$141.59	$160.85	+$19.26	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 71.4¢	$142.11	$151.11	+$9	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 94.8¢	$136.5	$140.91	+$4.41	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 98¢	$132.3	$135	+$2.7	49% 379-391 (770)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 12.1¢	$179.16	$53.91	-$125.25	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.1¢	$130.56	—	-$130.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.1¢	$48.6	$53.91	+$5.31
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 74.7¢	$115.22	$122.25	+$7.03	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 97¢	$86.62	$89.3	+$2.68	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 88.1¢	$79.23	$86.88	+$7.65	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 41.8¢	$98.62	—	-$98.62	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 93.5¢	$31.19	$31.07	+$0.94	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 95¢	$31.85	$30	-$1.85	78% 9098-2615 (11713)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95.6¢	$20.97	$17	-$3.97	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 87¢	$7.62	$8.76	+$1.14	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 21¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4	52% 16869-15701 (32570)
31 3123123121313<$100	Downavg 62¢	$19.99	$0.02	+$10.91	55% 652-524 (1176)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$717.17

Value

$653.3

PnL

-$63.87

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$655.57

Value

$546.99

PnL

-$108.58

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$274.65

Value

$288.64

PnL

+$13.99

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$255.53

Value

$247.04

PnL

-$8.49

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$178.93

Value

$202.19

PnL

+$23.27

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$190.93

Value

$181.54

PnL

-$9.4

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$179.13

Value

$178.63

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$154.81

Value

$165.66

PnL

+$14.2

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$141.59

Value

$160.85

PnL

+$19.26

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$142.11

Value

$151.11

PnL

+$9

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$136.5

Value

$140.91

PnL

+$4.41

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$132.3

Value

$135

PnL

+$2.7

Record

49%

379-391 (770)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$179.16

Value

$53.91

PnL

-$125.25

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Up$130.5612.1¢-$130.56

Down$48.690.1¢+$5.31

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$115.22

Value

$122.25

PnL

+$7.03

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$86.62

Value

$89.3

PnL

+$2.68

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$79.23

Value

$86.88

PnL

+$7.65

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$98.62

Value

—

PnL

-$98.62

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.19

Value

$31.07

PnL

+$0.94

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$31.85

Value

$30

PnL

-$1.85

Record

78%

9098-2615 (11713)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$20.97

Value

$17

PnL

-$3.97

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$7.62

Value

$8.76

PnL

+$1.14

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

—

PnL

-$13.2

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

—

PnL

-$2.4

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

3123123121313<$100

Down

Invested

$19.99

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$10.91

Record

55%

652-524 (1176)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 24 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5690e700...125124

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793000100

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $653.3

-$63.87

wzbbb

Down — $546.99

-$108.58

GoodFallen

Down — $288.64

+$13.99

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $247.04

-$8.49

spartacray

Down — $202.19

+$23.27

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $181.54

-$9.4

MayorMamdani

Down — $178.63

-$0.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $165.66

+$14.2

FairValueMachine

Down — $160.85

+$19.26

ply-pm0

Down — $151.11

+$9

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