Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.8K

Combined PnL

$660.76

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares7,937

Combined PnL+$964.66

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares832

Combined PnL-$303.9

Up — 73%Down — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$15.9	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 50.6¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$213.15	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 67.2¢	$1.2K	$649.4	-$585.13	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$364.2	$649.4	+$285.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.2¢	$870.33	—	-$870.33
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.2¢	$365.71	$725.68	+$359.98	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60¢	$462.44	$484.78	+$22.34	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 46.6¢	$213.17	$360.46	+$147.29	56% 34391-26783 (61174)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 66.2¢	$385.92	$341.37	-$44.56	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
SP spartacray	Upavg 71.3¢	$281.03	$326.66	+$45.64	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 53.4¢	$213.6	$303.22	+$89.62	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 67.4¢	$247.45	$275	+$27.55	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 89.8¢	$188.09	$178.47	-$8.62	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 79.3¢	$189.11	$164.32	-$24.79	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.1¢	$178.15	$147	-$31.15	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 80¢	$149.12	—	-$149.12	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$127.68	$124	-$3.68	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$76.84	—	-$76.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 41¢	$50.84	$124	+$73.16
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 10.1¢	$20.16	$114.68	+$94.52	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 63.7¢	$95.75	$120	+$24.25	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 24.8¢	$88.31	$69.61	-$18.7	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.7¢	$24.19	$69.61	+$45.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.8¢	$64.13	—	-$64.13
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 80¢	$70.53	—	-$70.53	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 50¢	$49.81	$50.09	+$0.28	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 99¢	$45.37	$44.57	-$0.8	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 91¢	$35.06	$36.87	+$1.81	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 8¢	$3.02	$35.29	+$32.27	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Downavg 2.6¢	$9.43	—	-$9.43	78% 9098-2615 (11713)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 17.5¢	$16.23	—	-$16.23	53% 70410-63019 (133429)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,992.11

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$15.9

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,007.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$213.15

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,234.53

Value

$649.4

PnL

-$585.13

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$364.256.1¢+$285.2

Down$870.3367.2¢-$870.33

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$365.71

Value

$725.68

PnL

+$359.98

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

GoodFallen

Invested

$462.44

Value

$484.78

PnL

+$22.34

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$213.17

Value

$360.46

PnL

+$147.29

Record

56%

34391-26783 (61174)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$385.92

Value

$341.37

PnL

-$44.56

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

spartacray

Invested

$281.03

Value

$326.66

PnL

+$45.64

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$213.6

Value

$303.22

PnL

+$89.62

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$247.45

Value

$275

PnL

+$27.55

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$188.09

Value

$178.47

PnL

-$8.62

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

ply-pm0

Invested

$189.11

Value

$164.32

PnL

-$24.79

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$178.15

Value

$147

PnL

-$31.15

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$149.12

Value

—

PnL

-$149.12

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.68

Value

$124

PnL

-$3.68

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

Both legs:

Down$76.8451.8¢-$76.84

Up$50.8441¢+$73.16

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$20.16

Value

$114.68

PnL

+$94.52

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

sir-upalot

Invested

$95.75

Value

$120

PnL

+$24.25

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.31

Value

$69.61

PnL

-$18.7

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Up$24.1934.7¢+$45.43

Down$64.1324.8¢-$64.13

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.53

Value

—

PnL

-$70.53

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$49.81

Value

$50.09

PnL

+$0.28

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$45.37

Value

$44.57

PnL

-$0.8

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$35.06

Value

$36.87

PnL

+$1.81

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$3.02

Value

$35.29

PnL

+$32.27

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.43

Value

—

PnL

-$9.43

Record

78%

9098-2615 (11713)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.23

Value

—

PnL

-$16.23

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 26 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbfde38d7...7a9867

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792999800

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$15.9

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.2K

+$213.15

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$585.13

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $725.68

+$359.98

GoodFallen

Up — $484.78

+$22.34

uninformedfloww

Up — $360.46

+$147.29

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $341.37

-$44.56

spartacray

Up — $326.66

+$45.64

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $303.22

+$89.62

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $275

+$27.55

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