Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 68%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
-$201.15
Smart Money Signal
13 of 19 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$3.01 | 83% 39878-8374 (48252) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 96.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$2.12 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Downavg 68.4¢ | $289.04 | $219.78 | -$69.25 | 56% 14709-11382 (26091) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.4¢ | $150.32 | $219.78 | +$69.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.1¢ | $138.71 | — | -$138.71 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 93.6¢ | $216.1 | $188.5 | -$27.6 | 60% 11574-7558 (19132) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 87.9¢ | $211.89 | $186.63 | -$25.27 | 56% 11714-9251 (20965) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 90.1¢ | $145.75 | $140.74 | -$5.01 | 62% 27876-17330 (45206) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 87¢ | $122.54 | $131.62 | +$9.08 | 53% 26492-23689 (50181) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 45.6¢ | $118.59 | — | -$118.59 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 72.1¢ | $108.76 | $128.25 | +$19.5 | 55% 13093-10519 (23612) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $68.21 | — | -$68.21 | 56% 7872-6275 (14147) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $85.22 | $88 | +$2.78 | 55% 6790-5568 (12358) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 51¢ | $61.2 | $120 | +$58.8 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.7¢ | $52.09 | — | -$52.09 | 53% 855-764 (1619) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $52.2 | $60 | +$7.8 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $49.29 | $47 | -$2.29 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $38.25 | $50 | +$11.75 | 55% 22971-18570 (41541) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 68.2¢ | $26.35 | $22.29 | -$4.07 | 49% 4659-4793 (9452) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $5.17 | — | -$5.17 | 51% 17725-17052 (34777) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.3¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 10.9¢ | $2.89 | — | -$2.89 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
Invested
$3,011.75
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$3.01
Record
83%
39878-8374 (48252)
Invested
$2,182.64
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$2.12
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Invested
$289.04
Value
$219.78
PnL
-$69.25
Record
56%
14709-11382 (26091)
Both legs:
Invested
$216.1
Value
$188.5
PnL
-$27.6
Record
60%
11574-7558 (19132)
Invested
$211.89
Value
$186.63
PnL
-$25.27
Record
56%
11714-9251 (20965)
Invested
$145.75
Value
$140.74
PnL
-$5.01
Record
62%
27876-17330 (45206)
Invested
$122.54
Value
$131.62
PnL
+$9.08
Record
53%
26492-23689 (50181)
Invested
$118.59
Value
—
PnL
-$118.59
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Invested
$108.76
Value
$128.25
PnL
+$19.5
Record
55%
13093-10519 (23612)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$68.21
Value
—
PnL
-$68.21
Record
56%
7872-6275 (14147)
Invested
$85.22
Value
$88
PnL
+$2.78
Record
55%
6790-5568 (12358)
Invested
$61.2
Value
$120
PnL
+$58.8
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$52.09
Value
—
PnL
-$52.09
Record
53%
855-764 (1619)
Invested
$52.2
Value
$60
PnL
+$7.8
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$49.29
Value
$47
PnL
-$2.29
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$38.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$11.75
Record
55%
22971-18570 (41541)
Invested
$26.35
Value
$22.29
PnL
-$4.07
Record
49%
4659-4793 (9452)
Invested
$5.17
Value
—
PnL
-$5.17
Record
51%
17725-17052 (34777)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
Invested
$2.89
Value
—
PnL
-$2.89
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.0K
wzbbb
Down — $2.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $188.5
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
Down — $186.63
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Down — $140.74
spartacray
Down — $131.62
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $128.25
machinelearned
CTRUp — $0