Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Down 64%
7 arb excluded
$3.7K
-$372.36
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$69.72 | 56% 14709-11382 (26091) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $595.76 | $1.3K | +$658.18 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.3¢ | $588.46 | — | -$588.46 | |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $673.26 | $605.33 | -$67.94 | 55% 13093-10519 (23612) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $303.16 | $605.33 | +$302.16 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $370.1 | — | -$370.1 | |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $330.12 | $370.75 | +$40.63 | 56% 7008-5446 (12454) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.9¢ | $155.52 | $370.75 | +$215.23 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55¢ | $174.6 | — | -$174.6 | |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $336.95 | $201.39 | -$135.56 | 56% 7872-6275 (14147) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66.1¢ | $241.09 | — | -$241.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.6¢ | $95.86 | $201.39 | +$105.53 | |
SP spartacrayARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $296.03 | $296.62 | +$0.59 | 53% 26492-23689 (50181) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.9¢ | $145.13 | $296.62 | +$151.49 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $150.9 | — | -$150.9 | |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $269.54 | $278.37 | +$8.83 | 62% 27876-17330 (45206) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.7¢ | $155.09 | $278.37 | +$123.29 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64¢ | $114.46 | — | -$114.46 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $252.89 | $307.9 | +$55.01 | 56% 11714-9251 (20965) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.6¢ | $161.82 | $307.9 | +$146.08 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.2¢ | $91.08 | — | -$91.08 | |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 25.6¢ | $164.38 | — | -$164.38 | 49% 4659-4793 (9452) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR | Downavg 59.8¢ | $221.65 | — | -$221.65 | 60% 11574-7558 (19132) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 55.3¢ | $101.59 | $144.17 | +$42.58 | 55% 6790-5568 (12358) |
GA gansinimenCTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $42 | — | -$42 | 51% 13809-13174 (26983) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 36¢ | $48.27 | $127 | +$78.73 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $90.32 | — | -$90.32 | 55% 22971-18570 (41541) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $30 | $60 | +$30 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $12 | — | -$12 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $8 | $20 | +$12 | 58% 16454-12070 (28524) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $3.89 | — | -$3.89 | 59% 16037-10985 (27022) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $1.41 | — | -$1.41 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
 NIULAI4CTR<$100 | Downavg 9¢ | $0 | — | -$0.02 | 78% 9098-2615 (11713) |
Invested
$1,184.22
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$69.72
Record
56%
14709-11382 (26091)
Both legs:
Invested
$673.26
Value
$605.33
PnL
-$67.94
Record
55%
13093-10519 (23612)
Both legs:
Invested
$330.12
Value
$370.75
PnL
+$40.63
Record
56%
7008-5446 (12454)
Both legs:
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$336.95
Value
$201.39
PnL
-$135.56
Record
56%
7872-6275 (14147)
Both legs:
Invested
$296.03
Value
$296.62
PnL
+$0.59
Record
53%
26492-23689 (50181)
Both legs:
Invested
$269.54
Value
$278.37
PnL
+$8.83
Record
62%
27876-17330 (45206)
Both legs:
Invested
$252.89
Value
$307.9
PnL
+$55.01
Record
56%
11714-9251 (20965)
Both legs:
Invested
$164.38
Value
—
PnL
-$164.38
Record
49%
4659-4793 (9452)
Invested
$221.65
Value
—
PnL
-$221.65
Record
60%
11574-7558 (19132)
Invested
$101.59
Value
$144.17
PnL
+$42.58
Record
55%
6790-5568 (12358)
Invested
$42
Value
—
PnL
-$42
Record
51%
13809-13174 (26983)
Invested
$48.27
Value
$127
PnL
+$78.73
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$90.32
Value
—
PnL
-$90.32
Record
55%
22971-18570 (41541)
Invested
$30
Value
$60
PnL
+$30
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$12
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8
Value
$20
PnL
+$12
Record
58%
16454-12070 (28524)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.89
Value
—
PnL
-$3.89
Record
59%
16037-10985 (27022)
Invested
$1.41
Value
—
PnL
-$1.41
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
NIULAI4CTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
78%
9098-2615 (11713)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
CTRDown — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $144.17