Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 57%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$548.65

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,880

Combined PnL-$904.51

Down6 traders

Total Value$953.96

Total Shares954

Combined PnL+$355.87

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$54.69	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.2¢	$930.92	—	-$930.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.9¢	$983.13	$2.0K	+$985.62
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$791.45	$797.97	+$6.52	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.9¢	$444.14	—	-$444.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$347.31	$797.97	+$450.66
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 28.5¢	$233.03	—	-$233.03	78% 9098-2615 (11713)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 34.2¢	$304.47	—	-$304.47	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$301.98	$278	-$23.98	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.5¢	$84.92	$278	+$193.09
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$217.06	—	-$217.06
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 49.6¢	$272.79	$304.81	+$32.02	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.1¢	$275.42	$528.3	+$252.88	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 50.8¢	$221.5	—	-$221.5	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 66.1¢	$181.5	$158.84	-$22.66	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.9¢	$42.8	$158.84	+$116.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.1¢	$138.7	—	-$138.7
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 69.9¢	$151.9	$175.95	+$24.05	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.1¢	$61.76	$175.95	+$114.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.9¢	$90.14	—	-$90.14
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 34.2¢	$127.2	$304.69	+$177.49	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.3¢	$22.85	—	-$22.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$104.36	$304.69	+$200.33
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 70.9¢	$219	$174.24	-$44.75	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
└ Up leg	Upavg 91.7¢	$95.52	—	-$95.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.9¢	$123.47	$174.24	+$50.77
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 74.7¢	$128.4	$60	-$68.4	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.7¢	$91.2	—	-$91.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$37.2	$60	+$22.8
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$58.34	—	-$58.34	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 42.7¢	$17.3	—	-$17.3	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$29.53	—	-$29.53	64% 19321-10933 (30254)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 49¢	$18.33	$37.41	+$19.08	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$9.4	—	-$9.4	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 48.2¢	$15.75	$32.67	+$16.92	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 79¢	$30.94	—	-$30.94	58% 55142-40208 (95350)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 59¢	$11.8	$20	+$8.2	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 13¢	$4	$30.77	+$26.77	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 72¢	$0.01	—	-$0.01	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	52% 16869-15701 (32570)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,914.05

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$54.69

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$930.9254.2¢-$930.92

Down$983.1349.9¢+$985.62

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$791.45

Value

$797.97

PnL

+$6.52

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Up$444.1460.9¢-$444.14

Down$347.3143.5¢+$450.66

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$233.03

Value

—

PnL

-$233.03

Record

78%

9098-2615 (11713)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$304.47

Value

—

PnL

-$304.47

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$301.98

Value

$278

PnL

-$23.98

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

Both legs:

Down$84.9230.5¢+$193.09

Up$217.0658.8¢-$217.06

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$272.79

Value

$304.81

PnL

+$32.02

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$275.42

Value

$528.3

PnL

+$252.88

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$221.5

Value

—

PnL

-$221.5

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$181.5

Value

$158.84

PnL

-$22.66

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Both legs:

Down$42.826.9¢+$116.04

Up$138.766.1¢-$138.7

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$151.9

Value

$175.95

PnL

+$24.05

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

Both legs:

Down$61.7635.1¢+$114.19

Up$90.1469.9¢-$90.14

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$127.2

Value

$304.69

PnL

+$177.49

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Up$22.8520.3¢-$22.85

Down$104.3634.2¢+$200.33

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$219

Value

$174.24

PnL

-$44.75

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Both legs:

Up$95.5291.7¢-$95.52

Down$123.4770.9¢+$50.77

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$128.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$68.4

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Both legs:

Up$91.274.7¢-$91.2

Down$37.262¢+$22.8

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$58.34

Value

—

PnL

-$58.34

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$17.3

Value

—

PnL

-$17.3

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$29.53

Value

—

PnL

-$29.53

Record

64%

19321-10933 (30254)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$18.33

Value

$37.41

PnL

+$19.08

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

—

PnL

-$9.4

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$15.75

Value

$32.67

PnL

+$16.92

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$30.94

Value

—

PnL

-$30.94

Record

58%

55142-40208 (95350)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$11.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$8.2

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$30.77

PnL

+$26.77

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

—

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

16869-15701 (32570)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x073c32f1...98ca4d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792998900

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Up — $0

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$23.98

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $304.81

+$32.02

Bonereaper

Down — $528.3

+$252.88

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$221.5

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded