Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
11
Up 45%
7 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$177.58
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NIULAI4ARB<$100 | Downavg 47.7¢ | $566.51 | $795.51 | +$229 | 78% 9098-2615 (11713) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.5¢ | $186.66 | — | -$186.66 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47.7¢ | $379.85 | $795.51 | +$415.66 | |
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $280.35 | $267.56 | -$12.79 | 49% 4659-4793 (9452) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.4¢ | $174.48 | — | -$174.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.6¢ | $105.87 | $267.56 | +$161.69 | |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Upavg 60.8¢ | $306.17 | $193 | -$113.17 | 62% 27876-17330 (45206) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.8¢ | $242.56 | — | -$242.56 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $63.6 | $193 | +$129.4 | |
SP spartacrayCTR | Upavg 60.4¢ | $273.34 | — | -$273.34 | 53% 26492-23689 (50181) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $278.38 | $287.04 | +$8.66 | 55% 6790-5568 (12358) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.6¢ | $110.32 | — | -$110.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.5¢ | $168.06 | $287.04 | +$118.98 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Downavg 44.9¢ | $231.6 | $323.76 | +$92.16 | 60% 11574-7558 (19132) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.3¢ | $86.21 | — | -$86.21 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.9¢ | $145.39 | $323.76 | +$178.38 | |
SI sir-upalotARB<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $226.52 | $140 | -$86.52 | 55% 22971-18570 (41541) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.5¢ | $171.52 | — | -$171.52 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.3¢ | $55 | $140 | +$85 | |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 56¢ | $168 | $300 | +$132 | 51% 17725-17052 (34777) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Downavg 39.1¢ | $116.14 | $227.01 | +$110.87 | 58% 35008-25112 (60120) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.1¢ | $88.69 | $227.01 | +$138.31 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.5¢ | $27.44 | — | -$27.44 | |
 ohioismCTR | Upavg 85¢ | $127.57 | — | -$127.57 | 64% 37926-21432 (59358) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $86.13 | — | -$86.13 | 64% 19321-10933 (30254) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 22¢ | $34.55 | $157.05 | +$122.5 | 58% 55142-40208 (95350) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $40.05 | $66.64 | +$26.59 | 66% 98923-50543 (149466) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $23.52 | $42 | +$18.48 | 74% 61575-21102 (82677) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 21.5¢ | $6.83 | $22 | +$15.17 | 53% 70410-63019 (133429) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 56.5¢ | $15.04 | $26.62 | +$11.58 | 62% 44360-26695 (71055) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $8.3 | — | -$8.3 | 62% 14221-8902 (23123) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $8.55 | — | -$8.55 | 52% 16869-15701 (32570) |
NIULAI4ARB<$100Invested
$566.51
Value
$795.51
PnL
+$229
Record
78%
9098-2615 (11713)
Both legs:
Invested
$280.35
Value
$267.56
PnL
-$12.79
Record
49%
4659-4793 (9452)
Both legs:
Invested
$306.17
Value
$193
PnL
-$113.17
Record
62%
27876-17330 (45206)
Both legs:
Invested
$273.34
Value
—
PnL
-$273.34
Record
53%
26492-23689 (50181)
Invested
$278.38
Value
$287.04
PnL
+$8.66
Record
55%
6790-5568 (12358)
Both legs:
Invested
$231.6
Value
$323.76
PnL
+$92.16
Record
60%
11574-7558 (19132)
Both legs:
Invested
$226.52
Value
$140
PnL
-$86.52
Record
55%
22971-18570 (41541)
Both legs:
Invested
$168
Value
$300
PnL
+$132
Record
51%
17725-17052 (34777)
Invested
$116.14
Value
$227.01
PnL
+$110.87
Record
58%
35008-25112 (60120)
Both legs:
ohioismCTRInvested
$127.57
Value
—
PnL
-$127.57
Record
64%
37926-21432 (59358)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$86.13
Value
—
PnL
-$86.13
Record
64%
19321-10933 (30254)
Invested
$34.55
Value
$157.05
PnL
+$122.5
Record
58%
55142-40208 (95350)
Invested
$40.05
Value
$66.64
PnL
+$26.59
Record
66%
98923-50543 (149466)
Invested
$23.52
Value
$42
PnL
+$18.48
Record
74%
61575-21102 (82677)
Invested
$6.83
Value
$22
PnL
+$15.17
Record
53%
70410-63019 (133429)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$15.04
Value
$26.62
PnL
+$11.58
Record
62%
44360-26695 (71055)
Invested
$8.3
Value
—
PnL
-$8.3
Record
62%
14221-8902 (23123)
Invested
$8.55
Value
—
PnL
-$8.55
Record
52%
16869-15701 (32570)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
NIULAI4
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
spartacray
CTRUp — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sir-upalot
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507
Down — $300
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
CTRUp — $0