Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

-$65.84

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares532

Combined PnL-$221.45

Down9 traders

Total Value$444.63

Total Shares445

Combined PnL+$155.6

Up — 47%Down — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$173.78	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$751.54	$1.3K	+$569.72
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.3¢	$395.93	—	-$395.93
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 32.9¢	$352.18	$321.08	-$31.1	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.9¢	$221.53	—	-$221.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$130.65	$321.08	+$190.43
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$479.25	$469.69	-$9.56	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.9¢	$161.25	—	-$161.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$317.99	$469.69	+$151.69
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$463.58	$387.2	-$76.39	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.1¢	$196.92	—	-$196.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.9¢	$266.66	$387.2	+$120.53
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$451.05	$575.74	+$124.69	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$338.68	$575.74	+$237.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$112.37	—	-$112.37
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$365.05	$514.67	+$149.62	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$285.89	$514.67	+$228.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$79.16	—	-$79.16
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$165.6	$159.1	-$6.5	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$78.87	—	-$78.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$86.73	$159.1	+$72.37
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$188.67	$239.11	+$50.43	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$140.68	$239.11	+$98.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.5¢	$47.99	—	-$47.99
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$177.93	$174.78	-$3.15	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.5¢	$71.11	—	-$71.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$106.82	$174.78	+$67.97
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 35.3¢	$96.51	$82.6	-$13.91	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.3¢	$56.96	—	-$56.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$39.55	$82.6	+$43.05
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 11.7¢	$43.5	—	-$43.5	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 62.5¢	$117.57	$118.17	+$0.6	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.5¢	$73.89	$118.17	+$44.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$43.68	—	-$43.68
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$98.45	$102.86	+$4.41	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$61.75	$102.86	+$41.11
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$36.7	—	-$36.7
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$113.52	$123.91	+$10.39	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.4¢	$98.33	$123.91	+$25.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.3¢	$15.19	—	-$15.19
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Upavg 37.4¢	$61.09	—	-$61.09	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$67.39	$50	-$17.39	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$38.39	—	-$38.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$29	$50	+$21
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 59.5¢	$67.52	$113.53	+$46.01	68% 94633-44122 (138755)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$40.69	—	-$40.69	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
ohioism	Downavg 69¢	$69.03	$100.04	+$31.01	64% 37926-21432 (59358)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$49.9	—	-$49.9	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 44.5¢	$28.95	$65	+$36.05	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 85.1¢	$52.2	$61.33	+$9.13	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 42.6¢	$16.41	$36.86	+$20.45	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 96.1¢	$36.1	$37.55	+$1.45	62% 44360-26695 (71055)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 36.6¢	$17.21	—	-$15.51	67% 14190-7009 (21199)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,147.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$173.78

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$751.5456.9¢+$569.72

Up$395.9340.3¢-$395.93

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$352.18

Value

$321.08

PnL

-$31.1

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Up$221.5332.9¢-$221.53

Down$130.6540.7¢+$190.43

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$479.25

Value

$469.69

PnL

-$9.56

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

Both legs:

Up$161.2534.9¢-$161.25

Down$317.9967.7¢+$151.69

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$463.58

Value

$387.2

PnL

-$76.39

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$196.9238.1¢-$196.92

Down$266.6668.9¢+$120.53

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$451.05

Value

$575.74

PnL

+$124.69

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$338.6858.8¢+$237.06

Up$112.3737.4¢-$112.37

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$365.05

Value

$514.67

PnL

+$149.62

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Down$285.8955.5¢+$228.78

Up$79.1646.8¢-$79.16

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$165.6

Value

$159.1

PnL

-$6.5

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Both legs:

Up$78.8736¢-$78.87

Down$86.7354.5¢+$72.37

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$188.67

Value

$239.11

PnL

+$50.43

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Both legs:

Down$140.6858.8¢+$98.42

Up$47.9934.5¢-$47.99

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$177.93

Value

$174.78

PnL

-$3.15

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

Both legs:

Up$71.1140.5¢-$71.11

Down$106.8261.1¢+$67.97

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$96.51

Value

$82.6

PnL

-$13.91

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

Both legs:

Up$56.9635.3¢-$56.96

Down$39.5547.9¢+$43.05

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$43.5

Value

—

PnL

-$43.5

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.57

Value

$118.17

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Both legs:

Down$73.8962.5¢+$44.28

Up$43.6841.5¢-$43.68

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$98.45

Value

$102.86

PnL

+$4.41

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

Both legs:

Down$61.7560¢+$41.11

Up$36.753.9¢-$36.7

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.52

Value

$123.91

PnL

+$10.39

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Down$98.3379.4¢+$25.58

Up$15.1933.3¢-$15.19

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$61.09

Value

—

PnL

-$61.09

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$67.39

Value

$50

PnL

-$17.39

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

Both legs:

Invested

$67.52

Value

$113.53

PnL

+$46.01

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$40.69

Value

—

PnL

-$40.69

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$69.03

Value

$100.04

PnL

+$31.01

Record

64%

37926-21432 (59358)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$49.9

Value

—

PnL

-$49.9

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$28.95

Value

$65

PnL

+$36.05

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$52.2

Value

$61.33

PnL

+$9.13

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$16.41

Value

$36.86

PnL

+$20.45

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$36.1

Value

$37.55

PnL

+$1.45

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$17.21

Value

—

PnL

-$15.51

Record

67%

14190-7009 (21199)

Smart Money Signal

8 of 17 top traders (47%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x66d01de9...868813

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792996800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded