Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$4.38

Smart Money Signal

Down

33 of 39 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down33 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares12,755

Combined PnL+$191.77

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares587

Combined PnL-$187.39

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 97.5¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$66.91	60% 19605-12902 (32507)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 88.7¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$57.08	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 89.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$11.98	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 89.9¢	$966.86	$966.57	-$0.29	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 94.9¢	$758.42	$799	+$40.58	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 80.3¢	$765.22	$714.82	-$50.4	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
machinelearned	Downavg 91.2¢	$595.67	$610	+$14.33	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 92.2¢	$522.22	$504.81	-$17.41	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 80.9¢	$439.57	$391.88	-$47.69	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 87.7¢	$372.11	$403.9	+$31.79	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 85.1¢	$318.28	$336.62	+$18.79	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 87.6¢	$285.93	$326.22	+$40.29	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
SP spartacray	Downavg 80.3¢	$248.38	$269.79	+$21.41	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 86.8¢	$233.29	$232.41	-$0.88	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
NIULAI4	Downavg 90.4¢	$260.99	$229.07	-$31.92	78% 9098-2615 (11713)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$185.2	$177.26	-$7.94	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.2¢	$143.92	$177.26	+$33.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.9¢	$41.28	—	-$41.28
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 85.6¢	$189.27	$181	-$8.27	90% 64816-7021 (71837)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 89.6¢	$205.99	$210.61	+$4.62	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
pspspsps5	Downavg 90.9¢	$154.27	$169.7	+$15.43	59% 16037-10985 (27022)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 28.8¢	$91.89	—	-$91.89	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 81.9¢	$147.24	$134.94	-$12.3	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 84.2¢	$127.67	$129.54	+$1.88	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 81.3¢	$122.85	$150	+$27.15	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 81.2¢	$110.76	$117	+$6.24	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
UpandDownSyndrome	Downavg 94.7¢	$110.48	$116.63	+$6.15	62% 44360-26695 (71055)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,643.09

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$66.91

Record

60%

19605-12902 (32507)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$1,428.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$57.08

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,031

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$11.98

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$966.86

Value

$966.57

PnL

-$0.29

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$758.42

Value

$799

PnL

+$40.58

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$765.22

Value

$714.82

PnL

-$50.4

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$595.67

Value

$610

PnL

+$14.33

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$522.22

Value

$504.81

PnL

-$17.41

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$439.57

Value

$391.88

PnL

-$47.69

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$372.11

Value

$403.9

PnL

+$31.79

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$318.28

Value

$336.62

PnL

+$18.79

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$285.93

Value

$326.22

PnL

+$40.29

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$248.38

Value

$269.79

PnL

+$21.41

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$233.29

Value

$232.41

PnL

-$0.88

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$260.99

Value

$229.07

PnL

-$31.92

Record

78%

9098-2615 (11713)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$185.2

Value

$177.26

PnL

-$7.94

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

Both legs:

Down$143.9281.2¢+$33.34

Up$41.2819.9¢-$41.28

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$189.27

Value

$181

PnL

-$8.27

Record

90%

64816-7021 (71837)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$205.99

Value

$210.61

PnL

+$4.62

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$154.27

Value

$169.7

PnL

+$15.43

Record

59%

16037-10985 (27022)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$91.89

Value

—

PnL

-$91.89

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$147.24

Value

$134.94

PnL

-$12.3

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$127.67

Value

$129.54

PnL

+$1.88

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$122.85

Value

$150

PnL

+$27.15

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$110.76

Value

$117

PnL

+$6.24

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

UpandDownSyndrome

Down

Invested

$110.48

Value

$116.63

PnL

+$6.15

Record

62%

44360-26695 (71055)

Smart Money Signal

Down

33 of 39 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf974fdd0...49720a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792996500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.7K

+$66.91

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $1.5K

+$57.08

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.0K

-$11.98

wzbbb

Down — $966.57

-$0.29

hoodquant

Down — $799

+$40.58

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $714.82

-$50.4

machinelearned

Down — $610

+$14.33

MayorMamdani

Down — $504.81

-$17.41

GoodFallen

Down — $391.88

-$47.69

thesidehustle

Down — $403.9

+$31.79

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