Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Up. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$798.93

Smart Money Signal

26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares7,112

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares727

Combined PnL-$445.69

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.35	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 46.4¢	$794.66	$1.4K	+$613.18	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 47.9¢	$460.12	$960.5	+$500.38	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 65.1¢	$454.12	$417.33	-$36.8	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 58.4¢	$400.36	$376.58	-$23.78	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.3¢	$311.02	$381.16	+$70.14	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 96.1¢	$326.56	$323	-$3.56	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 81.3¢	$244.94	$273.92	+$28.98	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60¢	$198	$263.09	+$65.1	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 84.7¢	$221.23	$235.01	+$13.78	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 58.4¢	$233.85	—	-$233.85	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 92.7¢	$215.46	$182.76	-$32.7	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
SP spartacray	Upavg 90.3¢	$165.4	$162.12	-$3.28	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
machinelearned	Upavg 82.1¢	$145.32	$141.75	-$3.57	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 71.5¢	$130.67	$122.43	+$20.86	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.7¢	$117.04	$132	+$14.96	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 53¢	$102.76	—	-$102.76	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 40.1¢	$76.54	$60	-$16.54	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54¢	$32.4	$60	+$27.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$44.14	—	-$44.14
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 91.5¢	$67.72	$74	+$6.28	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 94.3¢	$56.55	$60	+$3.45	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 67.6¢	$61.43	$47.8	-$13.64	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 80¢	$48	$60	+$12	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 87.8¢	$46.41	$51.76	+$5.36	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 53¢	$60.06	—	-$58.61	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 32.8¢	$36.67	—	-$36.67	49% 4659-4793 (9452)

0x50f7

Invested

$1,347.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.35

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$794.66

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$613.18

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

PBot-6

Invested

$460.12

Value

$960.5

PnL

+$500.38

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$454.12

Value

$417.33

PnL

-$36.8

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$400.36

Value

$376.58

PnL

-$23.78

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

wzbbb

Invested

$311.02

Value

$381.16

PnL

+$70.14

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$326.56

Value

$323

PnL

-$3.56

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$244.94

Value

$273.92

PnL

+$28.98

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

GoodFallen

Invested

$198

Value

$263.09

PnL

+$65.1

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$221.23

Value

$235.01

PnL

+$13.78

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$233.85

Value

—

PnL

-$233.85

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

thesidehustle

Invested

$215.46

Value

$182.76

PnL

-$32.7

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

spartacray

Invested

$165.4

Value

$162.12

PnL

-$3.28

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

machinelearned

Invested

$145.32

Value

$141.75

PnL

-$3.57

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$130.67

Value

$122.43

PnL

+$20.86

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$117.04

Value

$132

PnL

+$14.96

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$102.76

Value

—

PnL

-$102.76

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$76.54

Value

$60

PnL

-$16.54

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Up$32.454¢+$27.6

Down$44.1440.1¢-$44.14

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$67.72

Value

$74

PnL

+$6.28

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$56.55

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.45

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$61.43

Value

$47.8

PnL

-$13.64

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$60

PnL

+$12

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$46.41

Value

$51.76

PnL

+$5.36

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.06

Value

—

PnL

-$58.61

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.67

Value

—

PnL

-$36.67

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Smart Money Signal

26 of 32 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x01dee7e5...d2cb5b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792996200

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $1.3K

+$1.35

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.4K

+$613.18

PBot-6

Up — $960.5

+$500.38

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $417.33

-$36.8

CrouchPredictions

Up — $376.58

-$23.78

wzbbb

Up — $381.16

+$70.14

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $323

-$3.56

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $273.92

+$28.98

GoodFallen

Up — $263.09

+$65.1

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $235.01

+$13.78

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