Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$95.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares4,883

Combined PnL+$80.87

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$176.25

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 96.8¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$47.31	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 90.2¢	$525.87	$454.21	-$71.67	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 74.2¢	$256.13	$295.13	+$38.99	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87.7¢	$194.33	$208.33	+$14	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 95.5¢	$193.78	$198	+$4.22	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
machinelearned	Downavg 90¢	$171.53	$167.68	-$3.85	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 82.8¢	$159.28	$176	+$16.72	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 81.1¢	$140.84	$140	-$0.83	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 78.9¢	$128.85	$163.26	+$34.41	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$97.2	$78.64	-$18.56	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.8¢	$58.83	$78.64	+$19.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 22¢	$38.37	—	-$38.37
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 86.2¢	$102.23	$85.91	-$16.32	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$73.13	—	-$73.13	74% 61575-21102 (82677)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$92.09	$84.38	-$7.71	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 94.5¢	$85.06	$90	+$4.94	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 85¢	$85.25	$100.29	+$15.04	58% 11584-8476 (20060)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 77.3¢	$54.27	$56.64	+$2.37	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89¢	$53.4	$60	+$6.6	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$49.51	$50.01	+$0.5	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$38.5	$26.67	-$7.94	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$27.25	—	-$27.25	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$31.58	—	-$31.58	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 97.2¢	$27.58	$27	-$0.58	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Upavg 25.5¢	$11.74	—	-$11.74	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$15.66	—	-$15.66	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$12.25	—	-$12.25	59% 44281-30660 (74941)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$2,432.69

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$47.31

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$525.87

Value

$454.21

PnL

-$71.67

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$256.13

Value

$295.13

PnL

+$38.99

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$194.33

Value

$208.33

PnL

+$14

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$193.78

Value

$198

PnL

+$4.22

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$171.53

Value

$167.68

PnL

-$3.85

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$159.28

Value

$176

PnL

+$16.72

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$140.84

Value

$140

PnL

-$0.83

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$128.85

Value

$163.26

PnL

+$34.41

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.2

Value

$78.64

PnL

-$18.56

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$58.8374.8¢+$19.81

Up$38.3722¢-$38.37

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$102.23

Value

$85.91

PnL

-$16.32

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$73.13

Value

—

PnL

-$73.13

Record

74%

61575-21102 (82677)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$92.09

Value

$84.38

PnL

-$7.71

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$85.06

Value

$90

PnL

+$4.94

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$85.25

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$15.04

Record

58%

11584-8476 (20060)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$54.27

Value

$56.64

PnL

+$2.37

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$53.4

Value

$60

PnL

+$6.6

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$49.51

Value

$50.01

PnL

+$0.5

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$38.5

Value

$26.67

PnL

-$7.94

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$27.25

Value

—

PnL

-$27.25

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$31.58

Value

—

PnL

-$31.58

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$27.58

Value

$27

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Invested

$11.74

Value

—

PnL

-$11.74

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

—

PnL

-$15.66

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

—

PnL

-$12.25

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2c4917a7...120ba0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792995900

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $2.5K

+$47.31

CrouchPredictions

Down — $454.21

-$71.67

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $295.13

+$38.99

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $208.33

+$14

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $198

+$4.22

machinelearned

Down — $167.68

-$3.85

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $176

+$16.72

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $140

-$0.83

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $163.26

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded