Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 78%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$102.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 25 top traders (76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,245

Combined PnL+$362.84

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,344

Combined PnL-$260.71

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 95.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$18.22	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 46.2¢	$484.9	$616.34	+$131.44	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$284.59	$616.34	+$331.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.2¢	$200.32	—	-$200.32
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 54.6¢	$622.46	$632.75	+$10.29	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$345.35	$632.75	+$287.41
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$277.12	—	-$277.12
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 58.9¢	$359.45	$431.02	+$71.57	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$209.83	$203.4	-$6.43	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.7¢	$139.84	$203.4	+$63.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.8¢	$69.99	—	-$69.99
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.5¢	$35.07	—	-$35.07	83% 39878-8374 (48252)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 77¢	$212.6	$262.66	+$50.05	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
SP spartacray	Downavg 73.7¢	$204.69	$253.78	+$49.09	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 66.2¢	$183.42	$192.59	+$11.97	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 73.1¢	$171.54	$228.97	+$57.43	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Upavg 51.4¢	$132.39	—	-$132.39	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 45.6¢	$108.14	$125.06	+$16.92	59% 44281-30660 (74941)
machinelearned	Downavg 73.8¢	$127.6	$129.99	+$2.39	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 92.9¢	$139.11	$135	-$4.11	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 48.8¢	$140.23	$79.62	-$60.61	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72¢	$57.31	$79.62	+$22.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$82.92	—	-$82.92
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 39.7¢	$86.71	$67	-$19.72	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$29.24	$67	+$37.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.7¢	$57.48	—	-$57.48
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$83.99	$95.37	+$11.38	68% 94633-44122 (138755)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Upavg 25.2¢	$80.1	$39.02	-$41.07	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.2¢	$49.83	—	-$49.83
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.6¢	$30.27	$39.02	+$8.75
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 66¢	$58.07	$87.99	+$29.92	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
HS HsilverbasherCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$42.11	—	-$42.11	14% 16230-96920 (113150)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 94.1¢	$69.15	$70	+$0.85	66% 98923-50543 (149466)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 72.5¢	$62.43	$50.15	-$12.28	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 99¢	$49.22	$48	-$1.22	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 72.1¢	$33.16	—	-$33.16	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$30.2	$60.33	+$30.13	58% 35008-25112 (60120)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,922.98

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.22

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$484.9

Value

$616.34

PnL

+$131.44

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

Both legs:

Down$284.5946.2¢+$331.75

Up$200.3219.2¢-$200.32

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$622.46

Value

$632.75

PnL

+$10.29

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Down$345.3554.6¢+$287.41

Up$277.1239.3¢-$277.12

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$359.45

Value

$431.02

PnL

+$71.57

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.83

Value

$203.4

PnL

-$6.43

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

Both legs:

Down$139.8468.7¢+$63.56

Up$69.9916.8¢-$69.99

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$35.07

Value

—

PnL

-$35.07

Record

83%

39878-8374 (48252)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$212.6

Value

$262.66

PnL

+$50.05

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$204.69

Value

$253.78

PnL

+$49.09

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$183.42

Value

$192.59

PnL

+$11.97

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$171.54

Value

$228.97

PnL

+$57.43

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Invested

$132.39

Value

—

PnL

-$132.39

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$108.14

Value

$125.06

PnL

+$16.92

Record

59%

44281-30660 (74941)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$127.6

Value

$129.99

PnL

+$2.39

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$139.11

Value

$135

PnL

-$4.11

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$140.23

Value

$79.62

PnL

-$60.61

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

Both legs:

Down$57.3172¢+$22.31

Up$82.9248.8¢-$82.92

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$86.71

Value

$67

PnL

-$19.72

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

Both legs:

Down$29.2443.6¢+$37.76

Up$57.4839.7¢-$57.48

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$83.99

Value

$95.37

PnL

+$11.38

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Invested

$80.1

Value

$39.02

PnL

-$41.07

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

Both legs:

Up$49.8325.2¢-$49.83

Down$30.2777.6¢+$8.75

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$58.07

Value

$87.99

PnL

+$29.92

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

HsilverbasherCTR<$100

Invested

$42.11

Value

—

PnL

-$42.11

Record

14%

16230-96920 (113150)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$69.15

Value

$70

PnL

+$0.85

Record

66%

98923-50543 (149466)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$62.43

Value

$50.15

PnL

-$12.28

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$49.22

Value

$48

PnL

-$1.22

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$33.16

Value

—

PnL

-$33.16

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$30.2

Value

$60.33

PnL

+$30.13

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 25 top traders (76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x70925fc3...030f36

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792995600

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $1.9K

+$18.22

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$131.44

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$10.29

GoodFallen

Down — $431.02

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $0

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $262.66

+$50.05

spartacray

Down — $253.78

+$49.09

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $192.59

+$11.97

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $228.97

+$57.43

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