Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 86%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$185.18

Smart Money Signal

20 of 24 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares2,551

Combined PnL+$210.8

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares203

Combined PnL-$25.62

Up — 83%Down — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 92.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$52.91	56% 7008-5446 (12454)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$138.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.3¢	$85.4	—	-$85.4
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$379.1	$538.37	+$159.27	58% 35008-25112 (60120)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$265.74	$538.37	+$272.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.1¢	$113.35	—	-$113.35
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 87¢	$460.49	$395	-$65.49	56% 13639-10672 (24311)
machinelearned	Upavg 62.3¢	$195.56	$288.43	+$92.87	56% 7872-6275 (14147)
TH thesidehustle	Upavg 94¢	$254.01	$264.44	+$10.43	54% 9622-8161 (17783)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.5¢	$254.37	$261	+$6.63	93% 20886-1673 (22559)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 90.6¢	$244.23	$240	-$4.23	84% 31418-5931 (37349)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$221.45	$296.06	+$74.61	56% 14709-11382 (26091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$186.3	$296.06	+$109.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.6¢	$35.15	—	-$35.15
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 96¢	$215.11	$218	+$2.89	50% 68021-68968 (136989)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 74.3¢	$166.17	$181.4	+$15.23	60% 11574-7558 (19132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.3¢	$134.82	$181.4	+$46.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.8¢	$31.35	—	-$31.35
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 80.1¢	$183.79	$209.15	+$25.36	56% 11714-9251 (20965)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 86¢	$52.8	$44	-$8.8	55% 6790-5568 (12358)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.3¢	$14.96	—	-$14.96
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$37.84	$44	+$6.16
SP spartacray	Upavg 72.1¢	$109.77	$139	+$29.23	53% 26492-23689 (50181)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 59.2¢	$53.21	$67.56	+$14.35	55% 13093-10519 (23612)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.7¢	$13.2	—	-$13.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.2¢	$40.01	$67.56	+$27.55
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 60¢	$67.39	$112.34	+$44.95	62% 27876-17330 (45206)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 88.5¢	$88.5	$100	+$11.5	55% 22971-18570 (41541)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Upavg 91.7¢	$49.69	$49.45	-$0.23	49% 4659-4793 (9452)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$41.17	$46.76	+$5.59	53% 70410-63019 (133429)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 84.2¢	$57.66	$68.51	+$10.85	58% 16454-12070 (28524)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$25.88	$48.7	+$22.82	56% 11840-9145 (20985)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$22.79	—	-$22.79	57% 11146-8378 (19524)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$33.15	$40.45	+$7.3	79% 29830-7781 (37611)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$35.06	$40.1	+$5.04	62% 14221-8902 (23123)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$10.25	$10	-$0.25	56% 15511-12385 (27896)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 66¢	$9.9	$15	+$5.1	68% 94633-44122 (138755)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$1,847.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$52.91

Record

56%

7008-5446 (12454)

Both legs:

Up$1,762.1592.7¢+$138.31

Down$85.416.3¢-$85.4

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$379.1

Value

$538.37

PnL

+$159.27

Record

58%

35008-25112 (60120)

Both legs:

Up$265.7449.4¢+$272.62

Down$113.3523.1¢-$113.35

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$460.49

Value

$395

PnL

-$65.49

Record

56%

13639-10672 (24311)

machinelearned

Invested

$195.56

Value

$288.43

PnL

+$92.87

Record

56%

7872-6275 (14147)

thesidehustle

Invested

$254.01

Value

$264.44

PnL

+$10.43

Record

54%

9622-8161 (17783)

hoodquant

Invested

$254.37

Value

$261

PnL

+$6.63

Record

93%

20886-1673 (22559)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$244.23

Value

$240

PnL

-$4.23

Record

84%

31418-5931 (37349)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$221.45

Value

$296.06

PnL

+$74.61

Record

56%

14709-11382 (26091)

Both legs:

Up$186.362.9¢+$109.76

Down$35.1518.6¢-$35.15

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$215.11

Value

$218

PnL

+$2.89

Record

50%

68021-68968 (136989)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$166.17

Value

$181.4

PnL

+$15.23

Record

60%

11574-7558 (19132)

Both legs:

Up$134.8274.3¢+$46.58

Down$31.3553.8¢-$31.35

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$183.79

Value

$209.15

PnL

+$25.36

Record

56%

11714-9251 (20965)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$52.8

Value

$44

PnL

-$8.8

Record

55%

6790-5568 (12358)

Both legs:

Down$14.9611.3¢-$14.96

Up$37.8486¢+$6.16

spartacray

Invested

$109.77

Value

$139

PnL

+$29.23

Record

53%

26492-23689 (50181)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$53.21

Value

$67.56

PnL

+$14.35

Record

55%

13093-10519 (23612)

Both legs:

Down$13.214.7¢-$13.2

Up$40.0159.2¢+$27.55

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$67.39

Value

$112.34

PnL

+$44.95

Record

62%

27876-17330 (45206)

sir-upalot

Invested

$88.5

Value

$100

PnL

+$11.5

Record

55%

22971-18570 (41541)

ply-pm0<$100

Invested

$49.69

Value

$49.45

PnL

-$0.23

Record

49%

4659-4793 (9452)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$41.17

Value

$46.76

PnL

+$5.59

Record

53%

70410-63019 (133429)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$57.66

Value

$68.51

PnL

+$10.85

Record

58%

16454-12070 (28524)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$25.88

Value

$48.7

PnL

+$22.82

Record

56%

11840-9145 (20985)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.79

Value

—

PnL

-$22.79

Record

57%

11146-8378 (19524)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$33.15

Value

$40.45

PnL

+$7.3

Record

79%

29830-7781 (37611)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$35.06

Value

$40.1

PnL

+$5.04

Record

62%

14221-8902 (23123)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

15511-12385 (27896)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$15

PnL

+$5.1

Record

68%

94633-44122 (138755)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 24 top traders (83%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9ec542b8...10c38b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792995300

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$52.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$159.27

CrouchPredictions

Up — $395

-$65.49

machinelearned

Up — $288.43

+$92.87

thesidehustle

Up — $264.44

+$10.43

hoodquant

Up — $261

+$6.63

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $240

-$4.23

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$74.61

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $218

+$2.89

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$15.23

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