Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$153.53

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 29 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares9,893

Combined PnL+$858.64

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,497

Combined PnL-$705.12

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$26.82	64% 15382-8502 (23884)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$20.04	93% 20604-1665 (22269)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 53¢	$934.1	$1.0K	+$106.16	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 52.7¢	$697.86	$711.75	+$13.88	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 46.2¢	$478.66	—	-$478.66	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 62.6¢	$463.9	$493.92	+$30.02	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 59.2¢	$406.27	$406.4	+$0.13	88% 52847-6938 (59785)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$528.07	$352.87	-$175.2	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$175.7	$352.87	+$177.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$352.37	—	-$352.37
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 54.1¢	$322.23	$384.28	+$62.05	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
machinelearned	Downavg 50¢	$208.83	$363.47	+$154.64	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
SP spartacray	Downavg 57.6¢	$218.83	$322.65	+$103.82	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 18.6¢	$201.4	$227.3	+$25.9	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.5¢	$69.3	$227.3	+$158
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.6¢	$132.1	—	-$132.1
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 57.7¢	$206.08	$356.96	+$150.88	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$267.11	$272.04	+$4.93	54% 9571-8133 (17704)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$171.3	$272.04	+$100.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$95.81	—	-$95.81
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 58.4¢	$172.43	$235.12	+$62.69	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.4¢	$137.33	$235.12	+$97.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 17¢	$35.1	—	-$35.1
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 38.8¢	$122.88	$186.14	+$63.26	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 72.8¢	$234.36	$175.53	-$58.83	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 48.5¢	$117.97	$179.99	+$62.02	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 82.6¢	$146.91	$128.74	-$18.17	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 31.4¢	$86.56	$92.6	+$6.04	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.3¢	$38.27	$92.6	+$54.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.4¢	$48.29	—	-$48.29
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Upavg 61.3¢	$112.81	—	-$112.81	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99¢	$110.88	$112	+$1.12	58% 16384-12007 (28391)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 31.5¢	$45.48	$100	+$54.52	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2.4¢	$15.66	—	-$15.66	81% 32112-7778 (39890)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$78.7	$64.28	-$1.91	61% 14067-8822 (22889)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,655.18

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.82

Record

64%

15382-8502 (23884)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,977.03

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$20.04

Record

93%

20604-1665 (22269)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$934.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$106.16

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$697.86

Value

$711.75

PnL

+$13.88

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$478.66

Value

—

PnL

-$478.66

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$463.9

Value

$493.92

PnL

+$30.02

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$406.27

Value

$406.4

PnL

+$0.13

Record

88%

52847-6938 (59785)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$528.07

Value

$352.87

PnL

-$175.2

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Both legs:

Down$175.749.8¢+$177.17

Up$352.3750.6¢-$352.37

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$322.23

Value

$384.28

PnL

+$62.05

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$208.83

Value

$363.47

PnL

+$154.64

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$218.83

Value

$322.65

PnL

+$103.82

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$201.4

Value

$227.3

PnL

+$25.9

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

Both legs:

Invested

$206.08

Value

$356.96

PnL

+$150.88

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$267.11

Value

$272.04

PnL

+$4.93

Record

54%

9571-8133 (17704)

Both legs:

Down$171.363¢+$100.74

Up$95.8137.3¢-$95.81

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$172.43

Value

$235.12

PnL

+$62.69

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

Both legs:

Down$137.3358.4¢+$97.79

Up$35.117¢-$35.1

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$122.88

Value

$186.14

PnL

+$63.26

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$234.36

Value

$175.53

PnL

-$58.83

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$117.97

Value

$179.99

PnL

+$62.02

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$146.91

Value

$128.74

PnL

-$18.17

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$86.56

Value

$92.6

PnL

+$6.04

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

Both legs:

Down$38.2741.3¢+$54.33

Up$48.2931.4¢-$48.29

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Invested

$112.81

Value

—

PnL

-$112.81

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$110.88

Value

$112

PnL

+$1.12

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$45.48

Value

$100

PnL

+$54.52

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$15.66

Value

—

PnL

-$15.66

Record

81%

32112-7778 (39890)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$78.7

Value

$64.28

PnL

-$1.91

Record

61%

14067-8822 (22889)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 29 top traders (72%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb3b2f3d8...6ab906

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792984500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.7K

+$26.82

hoodquant

Down — $2.0K

+$20.04

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.0K

+$106.16

CrouchPredictions

Down — $711.75

+$13.88

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$478.66

GoodFallen

Down — $493.92

+$30.02

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $406.4

+$0.13

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$175.2

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $384.28

+$62.05

machinelearned

Down — $363.47

+$154.64

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