Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 63%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

-$531.24

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 29 top traders (62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,298

Combined PnL$-2.7K

Down18 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,112

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 51.4¢	$2.0K	—	$-2.0K	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 51.7¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$513.8	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 48.4¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$311.08	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 40.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$86.35	78% 9018-2585 (11603)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$537.49	$1.3K	+$727.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$814.29	—	-$814.29
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 54.1¢	$997.56	$1.2K	+$181.96	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
machinelearned	Downavg 61.1¢	$916.73	$1.1K	+$219.88	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 48.6¢	$857.51	$963.75	+$108.49	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$952.53	$703.4	-$249.13	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$345.22	$703.4	+$358.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.9¢	$607.31	—	-$607.31
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 43.7¢	$684.9	$667.14	-$17.76	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$327.4	$667.14	+$339.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.7¢	$357.5	—	-$357.5
FairValueMachine	Downavg 58.1¢	$626.44	$640.74	+$14.31	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$524.67	$368.59	-$156.09	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$263.95	$368.59	+$104.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$260.73	—	-$260.73
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 30.9¢	$211.6	$414.5	+$202.9	85% 67119-12101 (79220)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 45.8¢	$302.57	—	-$302.57	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$346.01	$296.09	-$49.92	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.6¢	$197.29	—	-$197.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$148.72	$296.09	+$147.38
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$252.94	$273.16	+$20.22	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$160.55	—	-$160.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.8¢	$92.39	$273.16	+$180.77
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$290.8	$203.6	-$87.2	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.6¢	$174.67	—	-$174.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 57¢	$116.13	$203.6	+$87.48
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 67.1¢	$164.63	$222.86	+$58.23	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 18.2¢	$62.21	—	-$62.21	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 24¢	$78.04	$203.11	+$125.07	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100	Upavg 53.9¢	$63.92	—	-$63.92	62% 42888-25869 (68757)
AS asidjasiodja	Downavg 18.4¢	$41.62	$160.29	+$123.08	61% 14067-8822 (22889)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 24.8¢	$52.47	$148.56	+$96.09	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
TH thesidehustleARB<$100	Downavg 68.9¢	$146.91	$186.11	+$39.2	54% 9571-8133 (17704)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.9¢	$128.23	$186.11	+$57.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.1¢	$18.68	—	-$18.68
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 73.1¢	$106.2	—	-$106.2	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$88.22	$92.93	+$22.43	68% 77726-36976 (114702)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$2,026.79

Value

—

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,301.97

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$513.8

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$1,362.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$311.08

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$1,351.78

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$86.35

Record

78%

9018-2585 (11603)

Both legs:

Down$537.4942.5¢+$727.94

Up$814.2940.4¢-$814.29

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$997.56

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$181.96

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$916.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$219.88

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$857.51

Value

$963.75

PnL

+$108.49

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$952.53

Value

$703.4

PnL

-$249.13

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Both legs:

Down$345.2249.1¢+$358.19

Up$607.3170.9¢-$607.31

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$684.9

Value

$667.14

PnL

-$17.76

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

Both legs:

Down$327.449.1¢+$339.74

Up$357.543.7¢-$357.5

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$626.44

Value

$640.74

PnL

+$14.31

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$524.67

Value

$368.59

PnL

-$156.09

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

Both legs:

Down$263.9571.6¢+$104.64

Up$260.7350.8¢-$260.73

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$211.6

Value

$414.5

PnL

+$202.9

Record

85%

67119-12101 (79220)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$302.57

Value

—

PnL

-$302.57

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$346.01

Value

$296.09

PnL

-$49.92

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

Both legs:

Up$197.2958.6¢-$197.29

Down$148.7250.2¢+$147.38

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$252.94

Value

$273.16

PnL

+$20.22

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

Both legs:

Up$160.5554.7¢-$160.55

Down$92.3933.8¢+$180.77

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$290.8

Value

$203.6

PnL

-$87.2

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

Both legs:

Up$174.6758.6¢-$174.67

Down$116.1357¢+$87.48

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$164.63

Value

$222.86

PnL

+$58.23

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$62.21

Value

—

PnL

-$62.21

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$78.04

Value

$203.11

PnL

+$125.07

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100

Invested

$63.92

Value

—

PnL

-$63.92

Record

62%

42888-25869 (68757)

asidjasiodja

Down

Invested

$41.62

Value

$160.29

PnL

+$123.08

Record

61%

14067-8822 (22889)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$52.47

Value

$148.56

PnL

+$96.09

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

thesidehustleARB<$100

Down

Invested

$146.91

Value

$186.11

PnL

+$39.2

Record

54%

9571-8133 (17704)

Both legs:

Down$128.2368.9¢+$57.88

Up$18.6825.1¢-$18.68

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$106.2

Value

—

PnL

-$106.2

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$88.22

Value

$92.93

PnL

+$22.43

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 29 top traders (62%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x530fb933...4971a3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792984200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-2.0K

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.8K

+$513.8

ply-pm0

Down — $1.7K

+$311.08

NIULAI4

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$86.35

GoodFallen

Down — $1.2K

+$181.96

machinelearned

Down — $1.1K

+$219.88

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $963.75

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Down — $640.74

+$14.31

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