Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,503

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Down5 traders

Total Value$529.98

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$274.31

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$390.76	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$834.9	$1.8K	+$942.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$552.13	—	-$552.13
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.4¢	$948.85	$809.06	-$139.78	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$428.21	—	-$428.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.4¢	$520.64	$809.06	+$288.43
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 40.7¢	$623.67	$696.51	+$72.84	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$335.08	—	-$335.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$288.59	$696.51	+$407.92
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$823.52	$617.31	-$206.21	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.7¢	$584.27	—	-$584.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$239.25	$617.31	+$378.07
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$743.1	$748.29	+$5.19	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$395.45	$748.29	+$352.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.9¢	$347.64	—	-$347.64
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 23.3¢	$210.12	—	-$210.12	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$472.59	$487.11	+$14.52	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.6¢	$300.07	$487.11	+$187.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$172.52	—	-$172.52
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$291.36	$260.33	-$31.03	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.3¢	$178.97	—	-$178.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$112.38	$260.33	+$147.94
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR	Upavg 71.9¢	$294.74	—	-$294.74	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$361.27	$342.62	-$18.65	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.4¢	$186.33	$342.62	+$156.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.9¢	$174.94	—	-$174.94
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$302.26	$331.1	+$28.84	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$156.62	$331.1	+$174.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$145.64	—	-$145.64
NIULAI4CTR	Upavg 34.3¢	$171.81	—	-$171.81	78% 9018-2585 (11603)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 49.6¢	$221.86	$311.84	+$89.97	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.6¢	$154.77	$311.84	+$157.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 62¢	$67.1	—	-$67.1
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$193.95	$295.22	+$101.27	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$147.61	$295.22	+$147.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$46.34	—	-$46.34
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$183.76	$160.49	-$23.27	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.9¢	$66.23	—	-$66.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.2¢	$117.52	$160.49	+$42.96
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 65.5¢	$146.77	—	-$146.77	51% 13785-13152 (26937)
Bossgirl	Downavg 35.6¢	$87.69	$246	+$158.31	54% 3930-3299 (7229)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 62¢	$120.46	—	-$120.46	52% 16024-14986 (31010)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 23.4¢	$50.13	$60	+$20.08	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.4¢	$28	—	-$29.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$10.2	$60	+$49.8
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Downavg 83.9¢	$129.21	$104	-$25.21	58% 16384-12007 (28391)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.9¢	$87.24	$104	+$16.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.7¢	$41.97	—	-$41.97
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 49.8¢	$81.18	$155.73	+$74.56	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 69.4¢	$77.93	—	-$77.93	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$47.71	—	-$47.71	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 51.8¢	$34.49	—	-$34.49	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$70.72	$70.75	+$15.37	67% 13858-6900 (20758)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,387.03

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$390.76

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

Both legs:

Down$834.947¢+$942.89

Up$552.1351.1¢-$552.13

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$948.85

Value

$809.06

PnL

-$139.78

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Both legs:

Up$428.2148.8¢-$428.21

Down$520.6464.4¢+$288.43

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$623.67

Value

$696.51

PnL

+$72.84

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Both legs:

Up$335.0840.7¢-$335.08

Down$288.5941.4¢+$407.92

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$823.52

Value

$617.31

PnL

-$206.21

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

Both legs:

Up$584.2765.7¢-$584.27

Down$239.2538.8¢+$378.07

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$743.1

Value

$748.29

PnL

+$5.19

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

Both legs:

Down$395.4552.8¢+$352.83

Up$347.6450.9¢-$347.64

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$210.12

Value

—

PnL

-$210.12

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$472.59

Value

$487.11

PnL

+$14.52

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

Both legs:

Down$300.0761.6¢+$187.04

Up$172.5258.4¢-$172.52

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$291.36

Value

$260.33

PnL

-$31.03

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

Both legs:

Up$178.9739.3¢-$178.97

Down$112.3843.2¢+$147.94

Kathod-Shi-14CTR

Invested

$294.74

Value

—

PnL

-$294.74

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$361.27

Value

$342.62

PnL

-$18.65

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

Both legs:

Down$186.3354.4¢+$156.29

Up$174.9463.9¢-$174.94

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$302.26

Value

$331.1

PnL

+$28.84

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

Both legs:

Down$156.6247.3¢+$174.48

Up$145.6455.7¢-$145.64

NIULAI4CTR

Invested

$171.81

Value

—

PnL

-$171.81

Record

78%

9018-2585 (11603)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.86

Value

$311.84

PnL

+$89.97

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

Both legs:

Down$154.7749.6¢+$157.07

Up$67.162¢-$67.1

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.95

Value

$295.22

PnL

+$101.27

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

Both legs:

Down$147.6150¢+$147.61

Up$46.3452.5¢-$46.34

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$183.76

Value

$160.49

PnL

-$23.27

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

Both legs:

Up$66.2330.9¢-$66.23

Down$117.5273.2¢+$42.96

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$146.77

Value

—

PnL

-$146.77

Record

51%

13785-13152 (26937)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$87.69

Value

$246

PnL

+$158.31

Record

54%

3930-3299 (7229)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$120.46

Value

—

PnL

-$120.46

Record

52%

16024-14986 (31010)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$50.13

Value

$60

PnL

+$20.08

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

Both legs:

Invested

$129.21

Value

$104

PnL

-$25.21

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

Both legs:

Down$87.2483.9¢+$16.76

Up$41.9766.7¢-$41.97

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$81.18

Value

$155.73

PnL

+$74.56

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$77.93

Value

—

PnL

-$77.93

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Invested

$47.71

Value

—

PnL

-$47.71

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$34.49

Value

—

PnL

-$34.49

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$70.72

Value

$70.75

PnL

+$15.37

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa3fdbb25...7c407b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792983900

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $0

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded