Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

-$334.24

Smart Money Signal

18 of 27 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,396

Combined PnL-$20.02

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,009

Combined PnL-$314.22

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$3.01	81% 32112-7778 (39890)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61.8¢	$569.3	$605.87	+$36.58	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 92¢	$515	$370.93	-$70.72	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 81.5¢	$404.64	$317.74	-$86.91	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 73.5¢	$197.27	$227.98	+$30.7	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$139.24	$190.67	+$51.43	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.5¢	$92.57	$190.67	+$98.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.7¢	$46.67	—	-$46.67
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 46.8¢	$158.35	$72.92	-$85.43	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$115.1	—	-$115.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$43.25	$72.92	+$29.67
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 92.8¢	$130.59	$139	+$8.41	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 97.9¢	$136.38	$136.13	-$0.25	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 67.1¢	$97.03	$124.95	+$27.92	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 77.1¢	$131.53	$120.36	-$11.18	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 68.8¢	$114.18	$118.52	+$4.34	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 21.9¢	$166.5	—	-$166.5	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 37.5¢	$68.58	—	-$68.58	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 10.3¢	$84.33	$39	-$45.33	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.3¢	$60.6	—	-$60.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.8¢	$23.73	$39	+$15.27
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$60.62	$90.47	+$29.85	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 99.2¢	$44.31	$44.67	+$0.36	58% 16384-12007 (28391)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.7¢	$26.84	—	-$26.84	50% 54008-54171 (108179)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 94.8¢	$32.84	$28.35	-$4.49	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 27.8¢	$37.1	—	-$37.1	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 71.6¢	$22.15	$25.56	+$3.41	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 1.6¢	$5.33	—	-$5.33	59% 15749-10920 (26669)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 92¢	$18.31	$19.9	+$1.59	58% 11317-8292 (19609)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 57¢	$8.55	$15	+$6.45	85% 67119-12101 (79220)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$3	—	-$3	52% 16024-14986 (31010)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$3.01

Record

81%

32112-7778 (39890)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$569.3

Value

$605.87

PnL

+$36.58

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$515

Value

$370.93

PnL

-$70.72

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$404.64

Value

$317.74

PnL

-$86.91

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$197.27

Value

$227.98

PnL

+$30.7

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$139.24

Value

$190.67

PnL

+$51.43

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

Both legs:

Up$92.5748.5¢+$98.1

Down$46.6750.7¢-$46.67

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$158.35

Value

$72.92

PnL

-$85.43

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

Both legs:

Down$115.146.8¢-$115.1

Up$43.2559.3¢+$29.67

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$130.59

Value

$139

PnL

+$8.41

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$136.38

Value

$136.13

PnL

-$0.25

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$97.03

Value

$124.95

PnL

+$27.92

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$131.53

Value

$120.36

PnL

-$11.18

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$114.18

Value

$118.52

PnL

+$4.34

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$166.5

Value

—

PnL

-$166.5

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$68.58

Value

—

PnL

-$68.58

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$84.33

Value

$39

PnL

-$45.33

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

Both legs:

Down$60.610.3¢-$60.6

Up$23.7360.8¢+$15.27

EZTRADENL2<$100

Invested

$60.62

Value

$90.47

PnL

+$29.85

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$44.31

Value

$44.67

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.84

Value

—

PnL

-$26.84

Record

50%

54008-54171 (108179)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$32.84

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$4.49

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.1

Value

—

PnL

-$37.1

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$22.15

Value

$25.56

PnL

+$3.41

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.33

Value

—

PnL

-$5.33

Record

59%

15749-10920 (26669)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$18.31

Value

$19.9

PnL

+$1.59

Record

58%

11317-8292 (19609)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$8.55

Value

$15

PnL

+$6.45

Record

85%

67119-12101 (79220)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

52%

16024-14986 (31010)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 27 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x12c87264...08965c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792983600

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$3.01

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $605.87

+$36.58

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $370.93

-$70.72

CrouchPredictions

Up — $317.74

-$86.91

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $227.98

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $139

+$8.41

dvasdkasodk

Up — $136.13

-$0.25

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $124.95

+$27.92

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