Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
29
Down 57%
4 arb excluded
$3.9K
$-4.3K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 29 top traders (55%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 48.5¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 56% 14683-11373 (26056) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$68.52 | 55% 13073-10507 (23580) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.2¢ | $482.5 | — | -$482.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $563.89 | $1.1K | +$551.02 | |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 39.1¢ | $770.16 | — | -$770.16 | 56% 13588-10613 (24201) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 60.1¢ | $707.22 | $870.41 | +$163.19 | 56% 6960-5414 (12374) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 46.2¢ | $444.3 | — | -$444.3 | 56% 11758-9077 (20835) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 49¢ | $364.7 | — | -$364.7 | 57% 33225-25562 (58787) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 76.1¢ | $428.07 | $318.66 | -$109.41 | 78% 9018-2585 (11603) |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 34.5¢ | $276.38 | — | -$276.38 | 49% 4640-4775 (9415) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $226.09 | — | -$226.09 | 57% 10925-8302 (19227) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Downavg 50.8¢ | $150.23 | — | -$150.23 | 56% 7708-6091 (13799) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 65.7¢ | $290.45 | $290.41 | -$0.04 | 56% 11691-9236 (20927) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 65.7¢ | $150.24 | — | -$150.24 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.3¢ | $140.21 | $290.41 | +$150.2 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $297.22 | $299.98 | +$2.76 | 51% 13785-13152 (26937) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $123.23 | — | -$123.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58¢ | $173.99 | $299.98 | +$125.99 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 23.9¢ | $155.11 | — | -$55.36 | 83% 29237-5890 (35127) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 54.1¢ | $200.32 | $207.38 | +$7.06 | 60% 11551-7546 (19097) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 80.9¢ | $280.16 | $179.2 | -$98.31 | 55% 6775-5546 (12321) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $216.55 | $217.74 | +$1.19 | 62% 17037-10576 (27613) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72.5¢ | $103.19 | — | -$103.19 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.1¢ | $113.36 | $217.74 | +$104.38 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Upavg 98¢ | $147.08 | $150.08 | +$3 | 67% 14977-7366 (22343) |
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $47.38 | — | -$47.38 | 56% 19501-15631 (35132) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $58.8 | $61.25 | +$2.45 | 68% 77726-36976 (114702) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $65.18 | — | -$65.18 | 78% 63103-17885 (80988) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.7¢ | $41.03 | — | -$41.03 | 58% 16384-12007 (28391) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $61.42 | — | -$59.42 | 67% 13858-6900 (20758) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $42.19 | $83.03 | +$40.84 | 56% 15191-12099 (27290) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $31.97 | — | -$31.97 | 50% 54008-54171 (108179) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $20.07 | $26.2 | +$6.13 | 77% 25565-7723 (33288) |
Invested
$1,700.14
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
56%
14683-11373 (26056)
Invested
$1,046.39
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$68.52
Record
55%
13073-10507 (23580)
Both legs:
Invested
$770.16
Value
—
PnL
-$770.16
Record
56%
13588-10613 (24201)
Invested
$707.22
Value
$870.41
PnL
+$163.19
Record
56%
6960-5414 (12374)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$444.3
Value
—
PnL
-$444.3
Record
56%
11758-9077 (20835)
Invested
$364.7
Value
—
PnL
-$364.7
Record
57%
33225-25562 (58787)
NIULAI4Invested
$428.07
Value
$318.66
PnL
-$109.41
Record
78%
9018-2585 (11603)
Invested
$276.38
Value
—
PnL
-$276.38
Record
49%
4640-4775 (9415)
Invested
$226.09
Value
—
PnL
-$226.09
Record
57%
10925-8302 (19227)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$150.23
Value
—
PnL
-$150.23
Record
56%
7708-6091 (13799)
Invested
$290.45
Value
$290.41
PnL
-$0.04
Record
56%
11691-9236 (20927)
Both legs:
Invested
$297.22
Value
$299.98
PnL
+$2.76
Record
51%
13785-13152 (26937)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$155.11
Value
—
PnL
-$55.36
Record
83%
29237-5890 (35127)
Invested
$200.32
Value
$207.38
PnL
+$7.06
Record
60%
11551-7546 (19097)
Invested
$280.16
Value
$179.2
PnL
-$98.31
Record
55%
6775-5546 (12321)
Invested
$216.55
Value
$217.74
PnL
+$1.19
Record
62%
17037-10576 (27613)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.08
Value
$150.08
PnL
+$3
Record
67%
14977-7366 (22343)
Invested
$47.38
Value
—
PnL
-$47.38
Record
56%
19501-15631 (35132)
Invested
$58.8
Value
$61.25
PnL
+$2.45
Record
68%
77726-36976 (114702)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$65.18
Value
—
PnL
-$65.18
Record
78%
63103-17885 (80988)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$41.03
Value
—
PnL
-$41.03
Record
58%
16384-12007 (28391)
Invested
$61.42
Value
—
PnL
-$59.42
Record
67%
13858-6900 (20758)
Invested
$42.19
Value
$83.03
PnL
+$40.84
Record
56%
15191-12099 (27290)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$31.97
Value
—
PnL
-$31.97
Record
50%
54008-54171 (108179)
Invested
$20.07
Value
$26.2
PnL
+$6.13
Record
77%
25565-7723 (33288)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
wzbbb
Up — $870.41
FairValueMachine
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $318.66
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0
EZTRADENL2
CTRDown — $0
machinelearned
CTRDown — $0