Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

21 of 35 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up21 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,589

Combined PnL+$63.55

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,639

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$20.65	93% 20604-1665 (22269)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 64.4¢	$907.18	$913.05	+$5.87	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 60¢	$431.19	$519.31	+$88.12	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 85.9¢	$610.76	$454.67	-$97.59	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 77¢	$371.91	$438.64	+$66.73	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 81.2¢	$248.04	$294.62	+$46.57	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 34.3¢	$343.78	—	-$343.78	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 40.8¢	$353.08	—	-$353.08	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 79.8¢	$226.76	$249.53	+$22.77	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 64¢	$244	$232.04	-$11.96	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 68.5¢	$267.65	$200	-$67.66	51% 13785-13152 (26937)
ohioism	Upavg 89.2¢	$184.32	$206.73	+$22.4	77% 28993-8555 (37548)
SP spartacray	Upavg 84¢	$209.17	$205	-$4.17	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
PB PBot-6CTR	Downavg 43.2¢	$172.63	—	-$172.63	62% 34047-20694 (54741)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 40.6¢	$136.17	—	-$136.17	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 39.5¢	$787.88	—	-$787.88	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 80.9¢	$177.96	$128.28	-$47.93	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 48.5¢	$116.51	—	-$116.51	20% 14378-58193 (72571)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$129.48	$79.98	-$49.49	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$49.79	$79.98	+$30.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$79.69	—	-$79.69
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 64.4¢	$120.31	$102.84	-$17.47	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 8.2¢	$103.41	—	-$103.41	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$45.62	$59.99	+$14.37	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$78.8	—	-$78.8	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$10.02	—	-$10.02	81% 32112-7778 (39890)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 96¢	$52.87	$45.47	-$7.4	61% 14067-8822 (22889)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,342.34

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$20.65

Record

93%

20604-1665 (22269)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$907.18

Value

$913.05

PnL

+$5.87

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

wzbbb

Invested

$431.19

Value

$519.31

PnL

+$88.12

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$610.76

Value

$454.67

PnL

-$97.59

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$371.91

Value

$438.64

PnL

+$66.73

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$248.04

Value

$294.62

PnL

+$46.57

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$343.78

Value

—

PnL

-$343.78

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$353.08

Value

—

PnL

-$353.08

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$226.76

Value

$249.53

PnL

+$22.77

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$244

Value

$232.04

PnL

-$11.96

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

gansinimen

Invested

$267.65

Value

$200

PnL

-$67.66

Record

51%

13785-13152 (26937)

ohioism

Invested

$184.32

Value

$206.73

PnL

+$22.4

Record

77%

28993-8555 (37548)

spartacray

Invested

$209.17

Value

$205

PnL

-$4.17

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

PBot-6CTR

Down

Invested

$172.63

Value

—

PnL

-$172.63

Record

62%

34047-20694 (54741)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$136.17

Value

—

PnL

-$136.17

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$787.88

Value

—

PnL

-$787.88

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$177.96

Value

$128.28

PnL

-$47.93

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$116.51

Value

—

PnL

-$116.51

Record

20%

14378-58193 (72571)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$129.48

Value

$79.98

PnL

-$49.49

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

Both legs:

Up$49.7962.2¢+$30.19

Down$79.6939¢-$79.69

ply-pm0

Invested

$120.31

Value

$102.84

PnL

-$17.47

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$103.41

Value

—

PnL

-$103.41

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$45.62

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$14.37

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.8

Value

—

PnL

-$78.8

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.02

Value

—

PnL

-$10.02

Record

81%

32112-7778 (39890)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$52.87

Value

$45.47

PnL

-$7.4

Record

61%

14067-8822 (22889)

Smart Money Signal

21 of 35 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7c1269cc...60be04

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792982100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

+$20.65

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $913.05

+$5.87

wzbbb

Up — $519.31

+$88.12

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $454.67

-$97.59

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $438.64

+$66.73

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $294.62

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Down — $0

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $249.53

+$22.77

FairValueMachine

Up — $232.04

-$11.96

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