Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$795.93

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 35 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down27 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares13,842

Combined PnL+$930.4

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares703

Combined PnL-$134.46

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Down	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$35.16	56% 3511-2708 (6219)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$26.77	64% 15382-8502 (23884)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.2¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$220.87	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 90.6¢	$1.1K	$947.48	-$122.95	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.3¢	$510.48	$703.83	+$193.35	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 67.9¢	$358.58	$487.04	+$128.46	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.4¢	$398.53	$405.82	+$7.29	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 61.1¢	$326.35	$375.53	+$49.18	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 69.2¢	$230.12	$276.64	+$46.52	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 50.1¢	$150.4	$221.5	+$71.09	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 73.3¢	$187.04	$207.54	+$20.5	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 67.5¢	$176.03	$206.08	+$33.2	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
SP spartacray	Downavg 71.5¢	$182.19	$172.47	-$9.72	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
machinelearned	Downavg 71.2¢	$134.16	$139.29	+$5.13	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 61.7¢	$77.1	$123.33	+$46.23	51% 13785-13152 (26937)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.3¢	$84.74	$165.15	+$80.41	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 65.4¢	$92.85	$96.19	+$3.34	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 28.8¢	$263.87	$70	-$193.87	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$34.5	$70	+$35.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.8¢	$229.37	—	-$229.37
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 61.8¢	$80.12	$107	+$26.88	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 79.8¢	$61.81	$69.62	+$7.81	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$41.44	$50.6	+$9.16	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$31.39	$34.07	+$7.23	61% 14067-8822 (22889)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 90¢	$27	$30	+$3	67% 14977-7366 (22343)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$30	—	-$30	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$22.41	$41	+$18.59	58% 16384-12007 (28391)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$4,995

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$35.16

Record

56%

3511-2708 (6219)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,650.23

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.77

Record

64%

15382-8502 (23884)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,041.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$220.87

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,070.42

Value

$947.48

PnL

-$122.95

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$510.48

Value

$703.83

PnL

+$193.35

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$358.58

Value

$487.04

PnL

+$128.46

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$398.53

Value

$405.82

PnL

+$7.29

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$326.35

Value

$375.53

PnL

+$49.18

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$230.12

Value

$276.64

PnL

+$46.52

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$150.4

Value

$221.5

PnL

+$71.09

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$187.04

Value

$207.54

PnL

+$20.5

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$176.03

Value

$206.08

PnL

+$33.2

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$182.19

Value

$172.47

PnL

-$9.72

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$134.16

Value

$139.29

PnL

+$5.13

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$77.1

Value

$123.33

PnL

+$46.23

Record

51%

13785-13152 (26937)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$84.74

Value

$165.15

PnL

+$80.41

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$92.85

Value

$96.19

PnL

+$3.34

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$263.87

Value

$70

PnL

-$193.87

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

Both legs:

Down$34.549.3¢+$35.5

Up$229.3728.8¢-$229.37

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$80.12

Value

$107

PnL

+$26.88

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$61.81

Value

$69.62

PnL

+$7.81

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$41.44

Value

$50.6

PnL

+$9.16

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$31.39

Value

$34.07

PnL

+$7.23

Record

61%

14067-8822 (22889)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$27

Value

$30

PnL

+$3

Record

67%

14977-7366 (22343)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$30

Value

—

PnL

-$30

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$22.41

Value

$41

PnL

+$18.59

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

Smart Money Signal

Down

27 of 35 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2f91f879...6aad4c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792981800

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$35.16

THG.

Down — $2.7K

+$26.77

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.3K

+$220.87

wzbbb

Down — $947.48

-$122.95

CrouchPredictions

Down — $703.83

+$193.35

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $487.04

+$128.46

GoodFallen

Down — $405.82

+$7.29

FairValueMachine

Down — $375.53

+$49.18

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $276.64

+$46.52

EZTRADENL2

Down — $221.5

+$71.09

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