Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

19 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,426

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Down14 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,229

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AD adururuCTR	Upavg 57.5¢	$3.7K	—	$-3.0K	54% 324-275 (599)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$31.53	93% 20604-1665 (22269)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 47.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$267.25	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$823.9	$1.7K	+$901
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$633.75	—	-$633.75
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$373.74	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$687.9	$1.6K	+$908.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$534.82	—	-$534.82
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$26.72	64% 15382-8502 (23884)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 45.4¢	$816.37	$1.1K	+$242.85	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
└ Up leg	Upavg 23¢	$335.54	—	-$335.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.4¢	$480.83	$1.1K	+$578.39
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$68.86	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.9¢	$786	$1.3K	+$464.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.6¢	$395.59	—	-$395.59
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	53% 922-819 (1741)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 48¢	$740.68	$1.5K	+$802.4	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 48.6¢	$624.48	$860.13	+$235.65	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.6¢	$418.32	$860.13	+$441.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$206.16	—	-$206.16
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 41.1¢	$364.42	$671.06	+$306.64	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.1¢	$275.82	$671.06	+$395.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$88.6	—	-$88.6
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$365.97	$449.18	+$83.21	51% 13785-13152 (26937)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$223.08	$449.18	+$226.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.3¢	$142.89	—	-$142.89
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 44.4¢	$394.87	$468.74	+$76.42	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$208.27	$468.74	+$260.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.1¢	$184.19	—	-$184.05
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 84.1¢	$308.73	$367	+$58.27	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
AtomforgeARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$360.48	$173.9	-$186.58	65% 3355-1789 (5144)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$257.3	—	-$257.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$103.18	$173.9	+$70.72
BossgirlCTR	Upavg 56.5¢	$336.44	—	-$336.44	54% 3930-3299 (7229)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 52.7¢	$323.37	$276.15	-$47.22	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.7¢	$169.86	—	-$169.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$153.51	$276.15	+$122.64
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$221.2	$281.56	+$60.36	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$122.58	$281.56	+$158.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$98.62	—	-$98.62
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aCTR	Upavg 57.4¢	$366.91	—	-$280.16	53% 1908-1710 (3618)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 40.9¢	$213.5	$298.54	+$85.04	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.9¢	$122.02	$298.54	+$176.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.3¢	$91.48	—	-$91.48
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 36.6¢	$148.55	$260.93	+$112.38	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$95.54	$260.93	+$165.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.2¢	$53.01	—	-$53.01
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$8.37	—	-$8.37	81% 32112-7778 (39890)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$130.76	$226.98	+$96.22	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$98.76	$226.98	+$128.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$32	—	-$32
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 45.7¢	$111.2	$124	+$12.8	55% 40843-33937 (74780)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$54.56	—	-$54.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$56.65	$124	+$67.35
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 94¢	$206.47	$150.09	-$56.38	77% 28993-8555 (37548)
└ Down leg	Downavg 94¢	$141.08	$150.09	+$9.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 86¢	$65.39	—	-$65.39

adururuCTR

Invested

$3,669

Value

—

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

54%

324-275 (599)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,758.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$31.53

Record

93%

20604-1665 (22269)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,457.65

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$267.25

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

Both legs:

Down$823.947.8¢+$901

Up$633.7550.4¢-$633.75

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,222.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$373.74

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

Both legs:

Down$687.943.1¢+$908.56

Up$534.8240.8¢-$534.82

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,645.28

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.72

Record

64%

15382-8502 (23884)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$816.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$242.85

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Both legs:

Up$335.5423¢-$335.54

Down$480.8345.4¢+$578.39

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,181.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$68.86

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Both legs:

Down$78662.9¢+$464.45

Up$395.5949.6¢-$395.59

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

53%

922-819 (1741)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$740.68

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$802.4

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$624.48

Value

$860.13

PnL

+$235.65

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

Both legs:

Down$418.3248.6¢+$441.81

Up$206.1652.7¢-$206.16

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$364.42

Value

$671.06

PnL

+$306.64

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

Both legs:

Down$275.8241.1¢+$395.24

Up$88.646.1¢-$88.6

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$365.97

Value

$449.18

PnL

+$83.21

Record

51%

13785-13152 (26937)

Both legs:

Down$223.0849.7¢+$226.1

Up$142.8935.3¢-$142.89

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$394.87

Value

$468.74

PnL

+$76.42

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

Both legs:

Down$208.2744.4¢+$260.47

Up$184.1948.1¢-$184.05

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$308.73

Value

$367

PnL

+$58.27

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

AtomforgeARB<$100

Invested

$360.48

Value

$173.9

PnL

-$186.58

Record

65%

3355-1789 (5144)

Both legs:

Up$257.356.3¢-$257.3

Down$103.1859.3¢+$70.72

BossgirlCTR

Invested

$336.44

Value

—

PnL

-$336.44

Record

54%

3930-3299 (7229)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$323.37

Value

$276.15

PnL

-$47.22

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

Both legs:

Up$169.8652.7¢-$169.86

Down$153.5155.6¢+$122.64

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.2

Value

$281.56

PnL

+$60.36

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

Both legs:

Down$122.5843.5¢+$158.99

Up$98.6238.4¢-$98.62

0xdc27...afdd9aCTR

Invested

$366.91

Value

—

PnL

-$280.16

Record

53%

1908-1710 (3618)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$213.5

Value

$298.54

PnL

+$85.04

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

Both legs:

Down$122.0240.9¢+$176.52

Up$91.4855.3¢-$91.48

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$148.55

Value

$260.93

PnL

+$112.38

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

Both legs:

Down$95.5436.6¢+$165.4

Up$53.0143.2¢-$53.01

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$8.37

Value

—

PnL

-$8.37

Record

81%

32112-7778 (39890)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.76

Value

$226.98

PnL

+$96.22

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

Both legs:

Down$98.7643.5¢+$128.22

Up$3264¢-$32

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$111.2

Value

$124

PnL

+$12.8

Record

55%

40843-33937 (74780)

Both legs:

Up$54.5644¢-$54.56

Down$56.6545.7¢+$67.35

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$206.47

Value

$150.09

PnL

-$56.38

Record

77%

28993-8555 (37548)

Both legs:

Down$141.0894¢+$9.01

Up$65.3986¢-$65.39

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 23 top traders (61%)19 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7eb99682...3f0edb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792980900

Traders in this Market

adururu

CTR

Up — $0

$-3.0K

hoodquant

Down — $1.8K

+$31.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Down — $2.7K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

Vega7

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.5K

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded