Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$177.11

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 30 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares6,548

Combined PnL-$20.41

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares647

Combined PnL-$156.7

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 78.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$79.13	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 66.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$53.27	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 62¢	$728.72	$782.13	+$53.4	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 74.4¢	$438.02	$429.65	-$8.37	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 64.6¢	$385.92	$404.71	+$18.79	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
machinelearned	Downavg 73.5¢	$378.34	$383.1	+$4.75	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 65¢	$291.73	$373.98	+$82.25	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
SP spartacray	Downavg 65.3¢	$258.29	$253.96	-$4.33	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 76.9¢	$194.09	$230.38	+$36.29	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 72.1¢	$233.85	$204.37	-$29.48	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.2¢	$169.61	$169.15	-$0.46	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 77.4¢	$163.24	$171.55	+$8.31	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 84.6¢	$199.04	$151.09	-$47.95	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 96.9¢	$132.45	$120	-$12.45	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 93.2¢	$74.27	$71	-$3.27	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 31.8¢	$43.82	—	-$43.82	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 85.6¢	$65.17	$52.17	-$13	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 42¢	$121.46	$25.37	-$96.1	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42¢	$103.91	—	-$103.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.2¢	$17.55	$25.37	+$7.82
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$27.18	$23	-$4.18	50% 54008-54171 (108179)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$42.89	—	-$42.89	85% 67119-12101 (79220)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$35.46	$51.51	+$16.05	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 4.6¢	$12.01	—	-$12.01	78% 9018-2585 (11603)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$30.38	—	-$30.38	55% 40843-33937 (74780)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Downavg 50¢	$15.85	$22	+$6.15	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50¢	$9.48	$18.96	+$9.48	71% 21334-8554 (29888)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,705.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$79.13

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,062.4

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$53.27

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$728.72

Value

$782.13

PnL

+$53.4

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$438.02

Value

$429.65

PnL

-$8.37

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$385.92

Value

$404.71

PnL

+$18.79

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$378.34

Value

$383.1

PnL

+$4.75

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$291.73

Value

$373.98

PnL

+$82.25

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$258.29

Value

$253.96

PnL

-$4.33

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$194.09

Value

$230.38

PnL

+$36.29

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$233.85

Value

$204.37

PnL

-$29.48

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$169.61

Value

$169.15

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$163.24

Value

$171.55

PnL

+$8.31

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$199.04

Value

$151.09

PnL

-$47.95

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$132.45

Value

$120

PnL

-$12.45

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$74.27

Value

$71

PnL

-$3.27

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$43.82

Value

—

PnL

-$43.82

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$65.17

Value

$52.17

PnL

-$13

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$121.46

Value

$25.37

PnL

-$96.1

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

Both legs:

Up$103.9142¢-$103.91

Down$17.5569.2¢+$7.82

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$27.18

Value

$23

PnL

-$4.18

Record

50%

54008-54171 (108179)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$42.89

Value

—

PnL

-$42.89

Record

85%

67119-12101 (79220)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$35.46

Value

$51.51

PnL

+$16.05

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$12.01

Value

—

PnL

-$12.01

Record

78%

9018-2585 (11603)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$30.38

Value

—

PnL

-$30.38

Record

55%

40843-33937 (74780)

Bonereaper<$100

Down

Invested

$15.85

Value

$22

PnL

+$6.15

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$9.48

Value

$18.96

PnL

+$9.48

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 30 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xad5c71b6...8cce7a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792980600

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.6K

-$79.13

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.0K

-$53.27

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $782.13

+$53.4

wzbbb

Down — $429.65

-$8.37

GoodFallen

Down — $404.71

+$18.79

machinelearned

Down — $383.1

+$4.75

FairValueMachine

Down — $373.98

+$82.25

spartacray

Down — $253.96

-$4.33

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $230.38

+$36.29

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $204.37

-$29.48

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