Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$162.21

Smart Money Signal

22 of 28 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,412

Combined PnL+$397.16

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares614

Combined PnL-$234.96

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.94	93% 20604-1665 (22269)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 85.6¢	$803	$875.99	+$73	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
machinelearned	Upavg 89.9¢	$512.74	$570.5	+$57.76	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$329.94	$276.02	-$53.92	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.3¢	$227.17	$276.02	+$48.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.6¢	$102.77	—	-$102.77
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 79.2¢	$276.39	$247.15	-$29.25	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.2¢	$195.72	$247.15	+$51.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.7¢	$80.68	—	-$80.68
MayorMamdani	Upavg 97.6¢	$154.26	$158	+$3.74	58% 16384-12007 (28391)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 51.9¢	$161.68	—	-$161.68	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 78.2¢	$127.68	$152.54	+$24.85	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 93.3¢	$120.74	$120	-$0.74	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 47¢	$112.8	$240	+$127.2	72% 51435-20417 (71852)
SP spartacray	Upavg 80.3¢	$117.84	$128.08	+$10.23	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.3¢	$107.3	$127.93	+$20.63	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 80.5¢	$106.12	$131.89	+$25.77	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 83.4¢	$92.87	$108.53	+$15.66	56% 15191-12099 (27290)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$86.07	$74.78	-$11.29	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 82.8¢	$71.19	$83.03	+$11.85	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 95¢	$56.51	$48	-$8.51	50% 54008-54171 (108179)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 76¢	$47.12	$62	+$14.88	55% 40843-33937 (74780)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.4¢	$41.5	$41	-$0.5	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 26.4¢	$40.21	—	-$40.21	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 85.7¢	$23.73	$27.69	+$3.96	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 76¢	$22.8	$30	+$7.2	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 85.5¢	$21.04	$24.61	+$3.58	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
BossgirlCTR<$100	Downavg 21¢	$20.16	—	-$20.16	54% 3930-3299 (7229)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 71¢	$9.65	$13.59	+$3.94	68% 77726-36976 (114702)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,380.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.94

Record

93%

20604-1665 (22269)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$803

Value

$875.99

PnL

+$73

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

machinelearned

Invested

$512.74

Value

$570.5

PnL

+$57.76

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$329.94

Value

$276.02

PnL

-$53.92

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Both legs:

Up$227.1782.3¢+$48.85

Down$102.7724.6¢-$102.77

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$276.39

Value

$247.15

PnL

-$29.25

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

Both legs:

Up$195.7279.2¢+$51.43

Down$80.6820.7¢-$80.68

MayorMamdani

Invested

$154.26

Value

$158

PnL

+$3.74

Record

58%

16384-12007 (28391)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$161.68

Value

—

PnL

-$161.68

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$127.68

Value

$152.54

PnL

+$24.85

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$120.74

Value

$120

PnL

-$0.74

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

Bonereaper

Invested

$112.8

Value

$240

PnL

+$127.2

Record

72%

51435-20417 (71852)

spartacray

Invested

$117.84

Value

$128.08

PnL

+$10.23

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

GoodFallen

Invested

$107.3

Value

$127.93

PnL

+$20.63

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$106.12

Value

$131.89

PnL

+$25.77

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$92.87

Value

$108.53

PnL

+$15.66

Record

56%

15191-12099 (27290)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$86.07

Value

$74.78

PnL

-$11.29

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$71.19

Value

$83.03

PnL

+$11.85

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$56.51

Value

$48

PnL

-$8.51

Record

50%

54008-54171 (108179)

almach<$100

Invested

$47.12

Value

$62

PnL

+$14.88

Record

55%

40843-33937 (74780)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$41.5

Value

$41

PnL

-$0.5

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$40.21

Value

—

PnL

-$40.21

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$23.73

Value

$27.69

PnL

+$3.96

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$30

PnL

+$7.2

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$21.04

Value

$24.61

PnL

+$3.58

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

BossgirlCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.16

Value

—

PnL

-$20.16

Record

54%

3930-3299 (7229)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$9.65

Value

$13.59

PnL

+$3.94

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 28 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0b031cc9...eaead9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792980300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

+$13.94

CrouchPredictions

Up — $875.99

+$73

machinelearned

Up — $570.5

+$57.76

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$53.92

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$29.25

MayorMamdani

Up — $158

+$3.74

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$161.68

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $152.54

+$24.85

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $120

-$0.74

Bonereaper

Up — $240

+$127.2

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