Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 54%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$229.64

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares8,522

Combined PnL+$551.59

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,589

Combined PnL-$781.22

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$26.69	64% 15382-8502 (23884)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 55.6¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$98.31	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 65.4¢	$918.14	$971.49	+$53.36	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 55.6¢	$807.92	$789.99	-$17.93	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.6¢	$336.67	$789.99	+$453.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$471.25	—	-$471.25
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.8¢	$735.16	$875.44	+$140.28	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 66.9¢	$464.25	$479.25	+$15	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
machinelearned	Upavg 75.8¢	$418.46	$516.1	+$97.64	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 57.9¢	$382.27	—	-$382.27	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 70.2¢	$375.15	$397.42	+$22.27	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58.8¢	$308.51	$299.35	-$9.16	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 65¢	$337.26	$239.39	-$97.87	51% 13785-13152 (26937)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$194.99	—	-$194.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.4¢	$142.27	$239.39	+$97.12
SP spartacray	Upavg 76.7¢	$288.21	$324.49	+$36.28	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 26.1¢	$104.69	—	-$104.69	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 75.8¢	$252.74	$265.39	+$12.65	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 41.9¢	$131.73	$77.88	-$53.85	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$33.45	$77.88	+$44.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.9¢	$98.27	—	-$98.27
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$106.69	$79.88	-$23.61	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$64.7	$79.88	+$15.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 23.5¢	$32.61	—	-$38.79
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 95.5¢	$83.47	$68.08	-$15.39	77% 25565-7723 (33288)
└ Up leg	Upavg 95.5¢	$65.04	$68.08	+$3.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 10.3¢	$18.43	—	-$18.43
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 15.4¢	$49.84	$49.6	-$0.24	50% 54008-54171 (108179)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.4¢	$36.68	—	-$36.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.5¢	$13.16	$49.6	+$36.44
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$134.41	$50.89	-$83.52	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.5¢	$109.44	—	-$109.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$24.98	$50.89	+$25.92
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$60.98	—	-$60.98	58% 11317-8292 (19609)
PL ply-pm0CTR<$100	Downavg 58.5¢	$75.04	—	-$75.04	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$36.72	$60.35	+$23.63	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 30.7¢	$20.63	—	-$20.63	55% 40843-33937 (74780)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 57¢	$49.87	—	-$49.87	77% 28993-8555 (37548)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$37.89	$44.81	+$6.92	67% 13858-6900 (20758)

THG.

Invested

$2,642.31

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$26.69

Record

64%

15382-8502 (23884)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,464.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$98.31

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

wzbbb

Invested

$918.14

Value

$971.49

PnL

+$53.36

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$807.92

Value

$789.99

PnL

-$17.93

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

Both legs:

Up$336.6742.6¢+$453.32

Down$471.2555.6¢-$471.25

GoodFallen

Invested

$735.16

Value

$875.44

PnL

+$140.28

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$464.25

Value

$479.25

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

machinelearned

Invested

$418.46

Value

$516.1

PnL

+$97.64

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$382.27

Value

—

PnL

-$382.27

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$375.15

Value

$397.42

PnL

+$22.27

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$308.51

Value

$299.35

PnL

-$9.16

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$337.26

Value

$239.39

PnL

-$97.87

Record

51%

13785-13152 (26937)

Both legs:

Down$194.9965¢-$194.99

Up$142.2759.4¢+$97.12

spartacray

Invested

$288.21

Value

$324.49

PnL

+$36.28

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$104.69

Value

—

PnL

-$104.69

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$252.74

Value

$265.39

PnL

+$12.65

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$131.73

Value

$77.88

PnL

-$53.85

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

Both legs:

Up$33.4543¢+$44.42

Down$98.2741.9¢-$98.27

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$106.69

Value

$79.88

PnL

-$23.61

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

Both legs:

Up$64.781¢+$15.18

Down$32.6123.5¢-$38.79

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$83.47

Value

$68.08

PnL

-$15.39

Record

77%

25565-7723 (33288)

Both legs:

Up$65.0495.5¢+$3.04

Down$18.4310.3¢-$18.43

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$49.84

Value

$49.6

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

54008-54171 (108179)

Both legs:

Down$36.6815.4¢-$36.68

Up$13.1626.5¢+$36.44

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$134.41

Value

$50.89

PnL

-$83.52

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

Both legs:

Down$109.4460.5¢-$109.44

Up$24.9849.1¢+$25.92

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.98

Value

—

PnL

-$60.98

Record

58%

11317-8292 (19609)

ply-pm0CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$75.04

Value

—

PnL

-$75.04

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$36.72

Value

$60.35

PnL

+$23.63

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.63

Value

—

PnL

-$20.63

Record

55%

40843-33937 (74780)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.87

Value

—

PnL

-$49.87

Record

77%

28993-8555 (37548)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$37.89

Value

$44.81

PnL

+$6.92

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 28 top traders (57%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x65ceb081...4e3fb8

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792980000

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.7K

+$26.69

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.6K

+$98.31

wzbbb

Up — $971.49

+$53.36

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$17.93

GoodFallen

Up — $875.44

+$140.28

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $479.25

+$15

machinelearned

Up — $516.1

+$97.64

CrouchPredictions

CTR

Down — $0

-$382.27

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Up — $397.42

+$22.27

FairValueMachine

Up — $299.35

-$9.16

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