Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 54%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$72.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 29 top traders (52%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down15 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,108

Combined PnL+$580.48

Up14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,538

Combined PnL-$508.33

Down — 52%Up — 48%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 61.6¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$106.04	56% 13588-10613 (24201)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.6¢	$820.48	$1.3K	+$512.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.7¢	$618.2	—	-$618.2
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$172.54	56% 14683-11373 (26056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$797.65	$1.5K	+$721.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$549.3	—	-$549.3
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.9¢	$773.15	$852.81	+$79.67	55% 13073-10507 (23580)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 61.1¢	$782.58	$860.32	+$77.74	56% 6960-5414 (12374)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$774.44	$656.84	-$117.6	83% 29237-5890 (35127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$259.76	$656.84	+$397.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.8¢	$514.68	—	-$514.68
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 69.5¢	$412.99	$372.61	-$40.37	49% 4640-4775 (9415)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.5¢	$259.14	$372.61	+$113.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.4¢	$153.85	—	-$153.85
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 53.3¢	$388.76	$427.66	+$38.9	56% 11691-9236 (20927)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$249.77	$399.4	+$149.63	56% 7708-6091 (13799)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$172.02	$399.4	+$227.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.2¢	$77.74	—	-$77.74
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 81.2¢	$319.87	$347.77	+$27.9	78% 9018-2585 (11603)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.2¢	$282.4	$347.77	+$65.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 8.1¢	$37.47	—	-$37.47
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$414.49	$387.09	-$27.4	55% 6775-5546 (12321)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.7¢	$312.36	$387.09	+$74.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$102.13	—	-$102.13
FairValueMachine	Downavg 69¢	$363.37	$419.28	+$55.91	56% 11758-9077 (20835)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 83.2¢	$388.79	$418.34	+$29.55	56% 19501-15631 (35132)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 56¢	$197.67	$252.22	+$54.55	57% 10925-8302 (19227)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$141.25	$252.22	+$110.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.5¢	$56.42	—	-$56.42
SP spartacray	Downavg 59.6¢	$193.07	$245.37	+$52.3	56% 18861-14567 (33428)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48.4¢	$106.04	$217.49	+$111.45	71% 21334-8554 (29888)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 83.5¢	$155.95	$163.2	+$7.25	60% 11551-7546 (19097)
ohioism	Downavg 72.8¢	$111.12	$152.68	+$41.56	77% 28993-8555 (37548)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 54.6¢	$110.99	$113.26	+$2.26	62% 17037-10576 (27613)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 42¢	$42.34	$61.43	+$19.09	68% 77726-36976 (114702)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42¢	$25.8	$61.43	+$35.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.2¢	$16.54	—	-$16.54
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Upavg 72¢	$108.05	—	-$108.05	67% 14977-7366 (22343)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 3.3¢	$11.39	—	-$11.39	64% 20058-11389 (31447)
OhioRiskManagementCTR	Upavg 76.1¢	$108.91	—	-$108.91	50% 54008-54171 (108179)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 19.5¢	$70.25	—	-$70.25	57% 33225-25562 (58787)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 66.8¢	$51.34	$60	+$12.87	67% 13858-6900 (20758)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 50¢	$27.03	$34	+$6.97	58% 11317-8292 (19609)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,438.69

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$106.04

Record

56%

13588-10613 (24201)

Both legs:

Down$820.4861.6¢+$512.16

Up$618.236.7¢-$618.2

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,346.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$172.54

Record

56%

14683-11373 (26056)

Both legs:

Down$797.6552.5¢+$721.84

Up$549.348.3¢-$549.3

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$773.15

Value

$852.81

PnL

+$79.67

Record

55%

13073-10507 (23580)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$782.58

Value

$860.32

PnL

+$77.74

Record

56%

6960-5414 (12374)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$774.44

Value

$656.84

PnL

-$117.6

Record

83%

29237-5890 (35127)

Both legs:

Down$259.7639.5¢+$397.08

Up$514.6856.8¢-$514.68

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$412.99

Value

$372.61

PnL

-$40.37

Record

49%

4640-4775 (9415)

Both legs:

Down$259.1469.5¢+$113.47

Up$153.8530.4¢-$153.85

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$388.76

Value

$427.66

PnL

+$38.9

Record

56%

11691-9236 (20927)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$249.77

Value

$399.4

PnL

+$149.63

Record

56%

7708-6091 (13799)

Both legs:

Down$172.0243.1¢+$227.38

Up$77.7424.2¢-$77.74

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$319.87

Value

$347.77

PnL

+$27.9

Record

78%

9018-2585 (11603)

Both legs:

Down$282.481.2¢+$65.37

Up$37.478.1¢-$37.47

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$414.49

Value

$387.09

PnL

-$27.4

Record

55%

6775-5546 (12321)

Both legs:

Down$312.3680.7¢+$74.73

Up$102.1334¢-$102.13

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$363.37

Value

$419.28

PnL

+$55.91

Record

56%

11758-9077 (20835)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$388.79

Value

$418.34

PnL

+$29.55

Record

56%

19501-15631 (35132)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$197.67

Value

$252.22

PnL

+$54.55

Record

57%

10925-8302 (19227)

Both legs:

Down$141.2556¢+$110.97

Up$56.4223.5¢-$56.42

spartacray

Down

Invested

$193.07

Value

$245.37

PnL

+$52.3

Record

56%

18861-14567 (33428)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$106.04

Value

$217.49

PnL

+$111.45

Record

71%

21334-8554 (29888)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$155.95

Value

$163.2

PnL

+$7.25

Record

60%

11551-7546 (19097)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$111.12

Value

$152.68

PnL

+$41.56

Record

77%

28993-8555 (37548)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$110.99

Value

$113.26

PnL

+$2.26

Record

62%

17037-10576 (27613)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$42.34

Value

$61.43

PnL

+$19.09

Record

68%

77726-36976 (114702)

Both legs:

Down$25.842¢+$35.63

Up$16.5412.2¢-$16.54

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Invested

$108.05

Value

—

PnL

-$108.05

Record

67%

14977-7366 (22343)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$11.39

Value

—

PnL

-$11.39

Record

64%

20058-11389 (31447)

OhioRiskManagementCTR

Invested

$108.91

Value

—

PnL

-$108.91

Record

50%

54008-54171 (108179)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$70.25

Value

—

PnL

-$70.25

Record

57%

33225-25562 (58787)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$51.34

Value

$60

PnL

+$12.87

Record

67%

13858-6900 (20758)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$27.03

Value

$34

PnL

+$6.97

Record

58%

11317-8292 (19609)

Smart Money Signal

Down

15 of 29 top traders (52%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x52406015...9d46cc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792979700

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$106.04

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$172.54

GoodFallen

Down — $852.81

+$79.67

wzbbb

Down — $860.32

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $427.66

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$27.4

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