Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET

Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-6.8K

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 37 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares4,526

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down24 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,812

Combined PnL$-8.4K

Up — 35%Down — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 44.8¢	$1.5K	$2.9K	+$1.4K	71% 20772-8504 (29276)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 58.7¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	56% 14630-11342 (25972)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 45.5¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	56% 6952-5402 (12354)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 61.8¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K	57% 33114-25464 (58578)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Downavg 58.4¢	$899.6	—	-$899.6	55% 13064-10502 (23566)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 53.9¢	$643.1	—	-$643.1	71% 49577-20345 (69922)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 53.8¢	$411.35	—	-$411.35	57% 11627-8940 (20567)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR	Downavg 41¢	$310.43	—	-$310.43	57% 10785-8171 (18956)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 67.6¢	$663.27	—	-$657.18	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
HS HsilverbasherCTR	Downavg 53.9¢	$326.76	—	-$326.76	20% 14234-55616 (69850)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Downavg 46.2¢	$488.04	—	-$488.04	56% 13575-10600 (24175)
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 54.6¢	$287	—	-$287	51% 13594-13017 (26611)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 64.4¢	$278.41	$273.08	-$5.33	62% 17027-10567 (27594)
SP spartacray	Upavg 80.9¢	$369.8	$259.1	-$110.7	56% 18847-14560 (33407)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Upavg 74.7¢	$253.85	$231.88	-$21.96	56% 11678-9228 (20906)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 41.6¢	$222.38	—	-$222.38	49% 4637-4764 (9401)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 34.1¢	$384.4	$174.45	-$209.95	56% 7703-6082 (13785)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$97.83	$174.45	+$76.62
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.1¢	$286.57	—	-$286.57
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 62.2¢	$218.78	$213.15	-$5.64	56% 18736-14987 (33723)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 22.4¢	$54.93	$142.87	+$87.94	50% 52086-52143 (104229)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$145.97	$119.45	-$26.52	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.9¢	$69.17	$119.45	+$50.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.1¢	$76.8	—	-$76.8
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 95.6¢	$86.25	$67.59	-$18.66	63% 19526-11360 (30886)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$75.05	$79.12	+$4.07	56% 15141-12065 (27206)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$45.3	$79.12	+$33.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$29.75	—	-$29.75
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 33¢	$58.32	—	-$5.34	68% 75669-35734 (111403)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$60.23	—	-$60.23	66% 14228-7218 (21446)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 91¢	$71.02	$57.28	-$5.14	67% 13816-6882 (20698)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,459.97

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

71%

20772-8504 (29276)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,595.69

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

56%

14630-11342 (25972)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$1,110.64

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

56%

6952-5402 (12354)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$1,060.5

Value

—

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

33114-25464 (58578)

GoodFallenCTR

Down

Invested

$899.6

Value

—

PnL

-$899.6

Record

55%

13064-10502 (23566)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$643.1

Value

—

PnL

-$643.1

Record

71%

49577-20345 (69922)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$411.35

Value

—

PnL

-$411.35

Record

57%

11627-8940 (20567)

EZTRADENL2CTR

Down

Invested

$310.43

Value

—

PnL

-$310.43

Record

57%

10785-8171 (18956)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$663.27

Value

—

PnL

-$657.18

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

HsilverbasherCTR

Down

Invested

$326.76

Value

—

PnL

-$326.76

Record

20%

14234-55616 (69850)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Down

Invested

$488.04

Value

—

PnL

-$488.04

Record

56%

13575-10600 (24175)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$287

Value

—

PnL

-$287

Record

51%

13594-13017 (26611)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$278.41

Value

$273.08

PnL

-$5.33

Record

62%

17027-10567 (27594)

spartacray

Invested

$369.8

Value

$259.1

PnL

-$110.7

Record

56%

18847-14560 (33407)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Invested

$253.85

Value

$231.88

PnL

-$21.96

Record

56%

11678-9228 (20906)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$222.38

Value

—

PnL

-$222.38

Record

49%

4637-4764 (9401)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$384.4

Value

$174.45

PnL

-$209.95

Record

56%

7703-6082 (13785)

Both legs:

Up$97.8356.1¢+$76.62

Down$286.5734.1¢-$286.57

sir-upalot

Invested

$218.78

Value

$213.15

PnL

-$5.64

Record

56%

18736-14987 (33723)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$54.93

Value

$142.87

PnL

+$87.94

Record

50%

52086-52143 (104229)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$145.97

Value

$119.45

PnL

-$26.52

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Both legs:

Up$69.1757.9¢+$50.28

Down$76.873.1¢-$76.8

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$86.25

Value

$67.59

PnL

-$18.66

Record

63%

19526-11360 (30886)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$75.05

Value

$79.12

PnL

+$4.07

Record

56%

15141-12065 (27206)

Both legs:

Up$45.357.3¢+$33.82

Down$29.7558.8¢-$29.75

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$58.32

Value

—

PnL

-$5.34

Record

68%

75669-35734 (111403)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.23

Value

—

PnL

-$60.23

Record

66%

14228-7218 (21446)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$71.02

Value

$57.28

PnL

-$5.14

Record

67%

13816-6882 (20698)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 37 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xcae502c1...5287c0

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792979100

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.9K

+$1.4K

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $0

wzbbb

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Down — $0

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

EZTRADENL2

Down — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $0

Hsilverbasher

Down — $0