Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.6K

Combined PnL

$562.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,426

Combined PnL-$793.37

Down17 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,118

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up — 23%Down — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$52.04	56% 14630-11342 (25972)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$903.85	$1.7K	+$793.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$741.7	—	-$741.7
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$761.84	$889.26	+$127.42	56% 13575-10600 (24175)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.5¢	$324.45	—	-$324.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$437.39	$889.26	+$451.87
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$784.29	$1.1K	+$323.85	56% 6952-5402 (12354)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$524.21	$1.1K	+$583.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.8¢	$260.08	—	-$260.08
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$690.68	$720.37	+$29.69	55% 13064-10502 (23566)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$401.74	$720.37	+$318.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$288.94	—	-$288.94
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 51.7¢	$754.05	—	-$754.05	71% 20772-8504 (29276)
MO mo-money	Downavg 64.5¢	$365.42	$564.11	+$198.7	55% 42809-34660 (77469)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 46.9¢	$524.82	$1.1K	+$593.18	71% 49577-20345 (69922)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 50.3¢	$374.4	$566.01	+$191.61	57% 33114-25464 (58578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.3¢	$284.8	$566.01	+$281.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.2¢	$89.6	—	-$89.6
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$342.46	$446.4	+$103.94	56% 40908-32497 (73405)
└ Up leg	Upavg 10¢	$48.49	—	-$48.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$293.96	$446.4	+$152.43
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$328.41	$389.05	+$60.64	49% 4637-4764 (9401)
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.1¢	$136.55	—	-$136.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$191.85	$389.05	+$197.2
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 66¢	$412.54	$412.41	-$0.13	51% 13594-13017 (26611)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.4¢	$140.48	—	-$140.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$272.06	$412.41	+$140.34
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$373.16	$387.1	+$70.36	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.1¢	$151.79	—	-$151.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$192.96	$387.1	+$222.16
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$440.01	$401.08	-$35.88	60% 11544-7540 (19084)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.4¢	$266.37	$401.08	+$134.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$170.32	—	-$170.32
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$346.76	$374.45	+$27.69	57% 11627-8940 (20567)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$190.26	$374.45	+$184.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$156.5	—	-$156.5
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$307.35	$380.7	+$73.35	55% 6768-5539 (12307)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$216.28	$380.7	+$164.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.3¢	$91.08	—	-$91.08
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 36.1¢	$208.38	$264.2	+$55.82	57% 10785-8171 (18956)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$107.02	—	-$107.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.4¢	$101.35	$264.2	+$162.85
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$182.6	$172.53	-$10.08	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$95.07	$172.53	+$77.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$87.53	—	-$87.53
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 53¢	$159	$300	+$141	53% 15155-13652 (28807)
AL almach	Downavg 64.3¢	$207.66	$322.84	+$115.19	55% 39952-33285 (73237)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 52.4¢	$118.81	$191.35	+$72.54	56% 11678-9228 (20906)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$22.94	$38.55	+$15.61	63% 19526-11360 (30886)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 52¢	$18.99	$33.29	+$14.31	61% 14030-8793 (22823)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$109.48	$125.48	+$16	56% 18736-14987 (33723)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.7¢	$99.98	$125.48	+$25.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 19¢	$9.5	—	-$9.5
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$85.94	$100.29	+$14.35	58% 11123-8150 (19273)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$51.15	$100.29	+$49.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 46¢	$34.79	—	-$34.79
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$16.98	$21.07	+$4.09	76% 24812-7703 (32515)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,645.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$52.04

Record

56%

14630-11342 (25972)

Both legs:

Down$903.8553.2¢+$793.74

Up$741.747.9¢-$741.7

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$761.84

Value

$889.26

PnL

+$127.42

Record

56%

13575-10600 (24175)

Both legs:

Up$324.4525.5¢-$324.45

Down$437.3949.2¢+$451.87

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$784.29

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$323.85

Record

56%

6952-5402 (12354)

Both legs:

Down$524.2147.3¢+$583.93

Up$260.0848.8¢-$260.08

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$690.68

Value

$720.37

PnL

+$29.69

Record

55%

13064-10502 (23566)

Both legs:

Down$401.7455.8¢+$318.63

Up$288.9442.1¢-$288.94

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$754.05

Value

—

PnL

-$754.05

Record

71%

20772-8504 (29276)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$365.42

Value

$564.11

PnL

+$198.7

Record

55%

42809-34660 (77469)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$524.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$593.18

Record

71%

49577-20345 (69922)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$374.4

Value

$566.01

PnL

+$191.61

Record

57%

33114-25464 (58578)

Both legs:

Down$284.850.3¢+$281.21

Up$89.620.2¢-$89.6

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$342.46

Value

$446.4

PnL

+$103.94

Record

56%

40908-32497 (73405)

Both legs:

Up$48.4910¢-$48.49

Down$293.9665.9¢+$152.43

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$328.41

Value

$389.05

PnL

+$60.64

Record

49%

4637-4764 (9401)

Both legs:

Up$136.5527.1¢-$136.55

Down$191.8549.3¢+$197.2

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$412.54

Value

$412.41

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

13594-13017 (26611)

Both legs:

Up$140.4829.4¢-$140.48

Down$272.0666¢+$140.34

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$373.16

Value

$387.1

PnL

+$70.36

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

Both legs:

Up$151.7932.1¢-$151.79

Down$192.9649.8¢+$222.16

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$440.01

Value

$401.08

PnL

-$35.88

Record

60%

11544-7540 (19084)

Both legs:

Down$266.3766.4¢+$134.44

Up$170.3245.5¢-$170.32

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$346.76

Value

$374.45

PnL

+$27.69

Record

57%

11627-8940 (20567)

Both legs:

Down$190.2650.8¢+$184.19

Up$156.543.9¢-$156.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$307.35

Value

$380.7

PnL

+$73.35

Record

55%

6768-5539 (12307)

Both legs:

Down$216.2856.8¢+$164.43

Up$91.0849.3¢-$91.08

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$208.38

Value

$264.2

PnL

+$55.82

Record

57%

10785-8171 (18956)

Both legs:

Up$107.0236.1¢-$107.02

Down$101.3538.4¢+$162.85

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$182.6

Value

$172.53

PnL

-$10.08

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Both legs:

Down$95.0755.1¢+$77.46

Up$87.5352.3¢-$87.53

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$159

Value

$300

PnL

+$141

Record

53%

15155-13652 (28807)

almach

Down

Invested

$207.66

Value

$322.84

PnL

+$115.19

Record

55%

39952-33285 (73237)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$118.81

Value

$191.35

PnL

+$72.54

Record

56%

11678-9228 (20906)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$22.94

Value

$38.55

PnL

+$15.61

Record

63%

19526-11360 (30886)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$18.99

Value

$33.29

PnL

+$14.31

Record

61%

14030-8793 (22823)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$109.48

Value

$125.48

PnL

+$16

Record

56%

18736-14987 (33723)

Both legs:

Down$99.9879.7¢+$25.5

Up$9.519¢-$9.5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$85.94

Value

$100.29

PnL

+$14.35

Record

58%

11123-8150 (19273)

Both legs:

Invested

$16.98

Value

$21.07

PnL

+$4.09

Record

76%

24812-7703 (32515)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 22 top traders (77%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x41598f6d...b55537

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792978800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$754.05

mo-money

Down — $564.11

+$198.7

Bonereaper

Down — $1.1K

uninformedfloww

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded