Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET

Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$229.37

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 34 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down28 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares6,639

Combined PnL+$788.25

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,172

Combined PnL-$558.89

Down — 82%Up — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$14.95	93% 20539-1653 (22192)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.01	80% 29203-7472 (36675)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 74.4¢	$762.59	$873.47	+$110.89	56% 13575-10600 (24175)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 80.5¢	$792.21	$869.18	+$76.97	56% 6952-5402 (12354)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 28.6¢	$509.2	—	-$509.2	71% 20772-8504 (29276)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 62.1¢	$377.05	$426.96	+$49.92	56% 14630-11342 (25972)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 68.3¢	$260.03	$310.01	+$49.98	55% 13064-10502 (23566)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 73.4¢	$147.85	$201.54	+$53.69	56% 15141-12065 (27206)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 89.1¢	$150.51	$169	+$18.49	50% 52086-52143 (104229)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 53.8¢	$109.83	$150	+$40.17	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 47.3¢	$76.89	$153.3	+$76.41	62% 17027-10567 (27594)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 80.6¢	$125.13	$141.82	+$16.68	55% 6768-5539 (12307)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 63.9¢	$100.21	$135.17	+$34.96	56% 11678-9228 (20906)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 58.3¢	$108.36	$126.98	+$22.42	60% 11544-7540 (19084)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.3¢	$74.08	$126.98	+$53.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.9¢	$31.37	—	-$31.37
machinelearned	Downavg 79.8¢	$111.72	$122.44	+$10.72	56% 7703-6082 (13785)
ohioism	Downavg 85¢	$127.64	$150.16	+$22.52	77% 27124-8199 (35323)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.7¢	$88.31	$102.99	+$14.68	58% 16353-11988 (28341)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 59.1¢	$59.1	$80	+$20.9	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$46.4	$72.39	+$25.99	70% 44729-19033 (63762)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 26.1¢	$49.67	$49.71	+$0.04	49% 4637-4764 (9401)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.2¢	$20.95	$49.71	+$28.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.1¢	$28.71	—	-$28.71
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 68.8¢	$72.45	$105.29	+$32.84	58% 11123-8150 (19273)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 53¢	$42.68	$59.2	+$16.52	56% 18847-14560 (33407)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 81.4¢	$36.44	$41.08	+$4.64	63% 19526-11360 (30886)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 41¢	$31.79	$77.53	+$45.74	70% 29557-12549 (42106)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 93.1¢	$34.71	$32.98	-$1.73	76% 24812-7703 (32515)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,239.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.95

Record

93%

20539-1653 (22192)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,009.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.01

Record

80%

29203-7472 (36675)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$762.59

Value

$873.47

PnL

+$110.89

Record

56%

13575-10600 (24175)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$792.21

Value

$869.18

PnL

+$76.97

Record

56%

6952-5402 (12354)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$509.2

Value

—

PnL

-$509.2

Record

71%

20772-8504 (29276)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$377.05

Value

$426.96

PnL

+$49.92

Record

56%

14630-11342 (25972)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$260.03

Value

$310.01

PnL

+$49.98

Record

55%

13064-10502 (23566)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$147.85

Value

$201.54

PnL

+$53.69

Record

56%

15141-12065 (27206)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$150.51

Value

$169

PnL

+$18.49

Record

50%

52086-52143 (104229)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$109.83

Value

$150

PnL

+$40.17

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$76.89

Value

$153.3

PnL

+$76.41

Record

62%

17027-10567 (27594)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$125.13

Value

$141.82

PnL

+$16.68

Record

55%

6768-5539 (12307)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$100.21

Value

$135.17

PnL

+$34.96

Record

56%

11678-9228 (20906)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.36

Value

$126.98

PnL

+$22.42

Record

60%

11544-7540 (19084)

Both legs:

Down$74.0858.3¢+$53.79

Up$31.3728.9¢-$31.37

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$111.72

Value

$122.44

PnL

+$10.72

Record

56%

7703-6082 (13785)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$127.64

Value

$150.16

PnL

+$22.52

Record

77%

27124-8199 (35323)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$88.31

Value

$102.99

PnL

+$14.68

Record

58%

16353-11988 (28341)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$59.1

Value

$80

PnL

+$20.9

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144<$100

Down

Invested

$46.4

Value

$72.39

PnL

+$25.99

Record

70%

44729-19033 (63762)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$49.67

Value

$49.71

PnL

+$0.04

Record

49%

4637-4764 (9401)

Both legs:

Down$20.9542.2¢+$28.76

Up$28.7126.1¢-$28.71

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$72.45

Value

$105.29

PnL

+$32.84

Record

58%

11123-8150 (19273)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$42.68

Value

$59.2

PnL

+$16.52

Record

56%

18847-14560 (33407)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$36.44

Value

$41.08

PnL

+$4.64

Record

63%

19526-11360 (30886)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$31.79

Value

$77.53

PnL

+$45.74

Record

70%

29557-12549 (42106)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$34.71

Value

$32.98

PnL

-$1.73

Record

76%

24812-7703 (32515)

Smart Money Signal

Down

28 of 34 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x30d7001e...8b70e6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792978500

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.3K

+$14.95

0x50f7

Down — $1.0K

+$1.01

CrouchPredictions

Down — $873.47

+$110.89

wzbbb

Down — $869.18

+$76.97

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$509.2

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $426.96

+$49.92

GoodFallen

Down — $310.01

+$49.98

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $201.54

+$53.69

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $169

+$18.49

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $150

+$40.17

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