Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

15 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$727.9

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 28 top traders (86%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,837

Combined PnL+$749.08

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$21.18

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 80.3¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$72.93	56% 6952-5402 (12354)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 70.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$198.01	56% 14630-11342 (25972)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$1.0K	$974.64	-$38.75	56% 13575-10600 (24175)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.7¢	$747.11	$974.64	+$227.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.2¢	$266.28	—	-$266.28
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$958.64	$968.32	+$9.68	66% 14442-7437 (21879)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$831.58	$881.61	+$50.03	55% 13064-10502 (23566)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.7¢	$632.39	$881.61	+$249.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.6¢	$199.19	—	-$199.19
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$750.65	$670.84	-$79.81	51% 13594-13017 (26611)
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.1¢	$517.51	$670.84	+$153.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.4¢	$233.14	—	-$233.14
FairValueMachine	Downavg 62.2¢	$526.74	$643.3	+$116.56	57% 11627-8940 (20567)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$598.27	$522.92	-$75.35	55% 6768-5539 (12307)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.9¢	$428.46	$522.92	+$94.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.5¢	$169.81	—	-$169.81
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$590.53	$523.25	-$67.29	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.1¢	$377.27	$523.25	+$145.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.9¢	$213.26	—	-$213.26
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 68¢	$382.14	$452.28	+$73.44	60% 11544-7540 (19084)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 75.9¢	$312.65	$408.38	+$95.73	56% 15141-12065 (27206)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$333.63	$354.91	+$21.29	57% 10785-8171 (18956)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$250.88	$354.91	+$104.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.2¢	$82.75	—	-$82.75
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$259.07	$302.8	+$63.77	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.7¢	$217.01	$302.8	+$90.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 6.1¢	$27.01	—	-$27.01
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$230.31	$271.58	+$41.27	49% 4637-4764 (9401)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$142.98	$271.58	+$128.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.2¢	$87.33	—	-$87.33
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 74.7¢	$217.95	$285.06	+$67.11	57% 33114-25464 (58578)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$210.65	$222.87	+$12.22	56% 7703-6082 (13785)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.4¢	$170.36	$222.87	+$52.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.7¢	$40.28	—	-$40.28
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 65.9¢	$118.12	$152.78	+$34.66	66% 14228-7218 (21446)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.9¢	$100.63	$152.78	+$52.15
└ Up leg	Upavg 4.7¢	$17.49	—	-$17.49
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 74.6¢	$197.34	$228.17	+$30.82	56% 11678-9228 (20906)
SP spartacray	Downavg 75.8¢	$188.91	$214.76	+$25.85	56% 18847-14560 (33407)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$132.59	$113.66	-$18.93	77% 27124-8199 (35323)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.4¢	$84.53	$113.66	+$29.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.1¢	$48.06	—	-$48.06
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$97.94	$91.88	-$6.06	63% 19526-11360 (30886)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.9¢	$70.66	$91.88	+$21.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.4¢	$27.28	—	-$27.28
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 69.1¢	$108.79	$145.81	+$37.02	62% 17027-10567 (27594)
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 25¢	$96.1	$30.01	-$66.09	78% 8984-2562 (11546)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25¢	$77.5	—	-$77.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$18.61	$30.01	+$11.4
BO bosona	Downavg 85.1¢	$101.19	$111.01	+$9.82	56% 40908-32497 (73405)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 85.5¢	$101.94	$105.55	+$3.61	56% 18736-14987 (33723)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$2,354.85

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$72.93

Record

56%

6952-5402 (12354)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$1,244.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$198.01

Record

56%

14630-11342 (25972)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,013.39

Value

$974.64

PnL

-$38.75

Record

56%

13575-10600 (24175)

Both legs:

Down$747.1176.7¢+$227.53

Up$266.2819.2¢-$266.28

THG.

Down

Invested

$958.64

Value

$968.32

PnL

+$9.68

Record

66%

14442-7437 (21879)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$831.58

Value

$881.61

PnL

+$50.03

Record

55%

13064-10502 (23566)

Both legs:

Down$632.3971.7¢+$249.22

Up$199.1929.6¢-$199.19

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$750.65

Value

$670.84

PnL

-$79.81

Record

51%

13594-13017 (26611)

Both legs:

Down$517.5177.1¢+$153.33

Up$233.1426.4¢-$233.14

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$526.74

Value

$643.3

PnL

+$116.56

Record

57%

11627-8940 (20567)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$598.27

Value

$522.92

PnL

-$75.35

Record

55%

6768-5539 (12307)

Both legs:

Down$428.4681.9¢+$94.46

Up$169.8125.5¢-$169.81

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$590.53

Value

$523.25

PnL

-$67.29

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Both legs:

Down$377.2772.1¢+$145.98

Up$213.2636.9¢-$213.26

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$382.14

Value

$452.28

PnL

+$73.44

Record

60%

11544-7540 (19084)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$312.65

Value

$408.38

PnL

+$95.73

Record

56%

15141-12065 (27206)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$333.63

Value

$354.91

PnL

+$21.29

Record

57%

10785-8171 (18956)

Both legs:

Down$250.8870.7¢+$104.03

Up$82.7525.2¢-$82.75

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$259.07

Value

$302.8

PnL

+$63.77

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

Both legs:

Down$217.0171.7¢+$90.78

Up$27.016.1¢-$27.01

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$230.31

Value

$271.58

PnL

+$41.27

Record

49%

4637-4764 (9401)

Both legs:

Down$142.9852.6¢+$128.6

Up$87.3321.2¢-$87.33

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$217.95

Value

$285.06

PnL

+$67.11

Record

57%

33114-25464 (58578)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$210.65

Value

$222.87

PnL

+$12.22

Record

56%

7703-6082 (13785)

Both legs:

Down$170.3676.4¢+$52.5

Up$40.2820.7¢-$40.28

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$118.12

Value

$152.78

PnL

+$34.66

Record

66%

14228-7218 (21446)

Both legs:

Down$100.6365.9¢+$52.15

Up$17.494.7¢-$17.49

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$197.34

Value

$228.17

PnL

+$30.82

Record

56%

11678-9228 (20906)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$188.91

Value

$214.76

PnL

+$25.85

Record

56%

18847-14560 (33407)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$132.59

Value

$113.66

PnL

-$18.93

Record

77%

27124-8199 (35323)

Both legs:

Down$84.5374.4¢+$29.13

Up$48.0628.1¢-$48.06

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.94

Value

$91.88

PnL

-$6.06

Record

63%

19526-11360 (30886)

Both legs:

Down$70.6676.9¢+$21.22

Up$27.2812.4¢-$27.28

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$108.79

Value

$145.81

PnL

+$37.02

Record

62%

17027-10567 (27594)

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$96.1

Value

$30.01

PnL

-$66.09

Record

78%

8984-2562 (11546)

Both legs:

Invested

$101.19

Value

$111.01

PnL

+$9.82

Record

56%

40908-32497 (73405)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$101.94

Value

$105.55

PnL

+$3.61

Record

56%

18736-14987 (33723)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 28 top traders (86%)15 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x33085848...19f447

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792978200

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $2.4K

+$72.93

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.4K

+$198.01

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$38.75

THG.

Down — $968.32

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Down — $643.3

+$116.56

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$75.35

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.29

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $452.28

+$73.44

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