Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$975.11

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 36 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares7,661

Combined PnL+$673.53

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,866

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 84¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$5.1	56% 6952-5402 (12354)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$22.12	80% 29203-7472 (36675)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 55.9¢	$688.68	—	-$688.68	56% 14630-11342 (25972)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 40.5¢	$433.04	$640.25	+$207.21	56% 13575-10600 (24175)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.9¢	$599.53	$612.35	+$12.82	93% 20539-1653 (22192)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 52.4¢	$390.68	$379.16	-$11.51	88% 48649-6911 (55560)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 50.6¢	$190.32	$316.5	+$126.18	60% 11544-7540 (19084)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 60.1¢	$298.04	—	-$298.04	55% 13064-10502 (23566)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 71.9¢	$269.93	$218.11	-$51.82	56% 15141-12065 (27206)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 55.7¢	$156.2	$203.41	+$47.21	83% 28668-5871 (34539)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 87.2¢	$173.9	$199.32	+$25.42	50% 52086-52143 (104229)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 50¢	$128.4	$192.78	+$64.38	62% 17027-10567 (27594)
SP spartacray	Downavg 55.2¢	$158.52	$174.67	+$16.14	56% 18847-14560 (33407)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 52.9¢	$123.51	$174.11	+$50.6	57% 11627-8940 (20567)
pspspsps5	Downavg 96¢	$164.7	$171.49	+$6.79	59% 15305-10802 (26107)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 41.3¢	$120.03	—	-$120.03	49% 4637-4764 (9401)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 57.4¢	$106.72	$126.65	+$19.93	56% 11678-9228 (20906)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 76¢	$124.17	$131.61	+$7.44	51% 13594-13017 (26611)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.6¢	$48.17	$131.61	+$83.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 76¢	$75.99	—	-$75.99
0X 0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR	Upavg 57.5¢	$117.04	—	-$117.04	70% 44729-19033 (63762)
machinelearned	Downavg 70.4¢	$112.35	$113.36	+$1	56% 7703-6082 (13785)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 54.7¢	$167.98	—	-$167.98	55% 6768-5539 (12307)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 29¢	$39.77	$137.07	+$97.3	57% 10785-8171 (18956)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 24.4¢	$16.83	$63.97	+$47.14	68% 75669-35734 (111403)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$64.66	$63.14	-$1.52	76% 24812-7703 (32515)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 59.5¢	$20.5	$34.48	+$13.98	67% 13816-6882 (20698)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$1,921.76

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$5.1

Record

56%

6952-5402 (12354)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$1,850.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$22.12

Record

80%

29203-7472 (36675)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$688.68

Value

—

PnL

-$688.68

Record

56%

14630-11342 (25972)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$433.04

Value

$640.25

PnL

+$207.21

Record

56%

13575-10600 (24175)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$599.53

Value

$612.35

PnL

+$12.82

Record

93%

20539-1653 (22192)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$390.68

Value

$379.16

PnL

-$11.51

Record

88%

48649-6911 (55560)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$190.32

Value

$316.5

PnL

+$126.18

Record

60%

11544-7540 (19084)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$298.04

Value

—

PnL

-$298.04

Record

55%

13064-10502 (23566)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$269.93

Value

$218.11

PnL

-$51.82

Record

56%

15141-12065 (27206)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$156.2

Value

$203.41

PnL

+$47.21

Record

83%

28668-5871 (34539)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$173.9

Value

$199.32

PnL

+$25.42

Record

50%

52086-52143 (104229)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$128.4

Value

$192.78

PnL

+$64.38

Record

62%

17027-10567 (27594)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$158.52

Value

$174.67

PnL

+$16.14

Record

56%

18847-14560 (33407)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$123.51

Value

$174.11

PnL

+$50.6

Record

57%

11627-8940 (20567)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$164.7

Value

$171.49

PnL

+$6.79

Record

59%

15305-10802 (26107)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$120.03

Value

—

PnL

-$120.03

Record

49%

4637-4764 (9401)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$106.72

Value

$126.65

PnL

+$19.93

Record

56%

11678-9228 (20906)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$124.17

Value

$131.61

PnL

+$7.44

Record

51%

13594-13017 (26611)

Both legs:

Down$48.1736.6¢+$83.44

Up$75.9976¢-$75.99

0xcE25E214D5cfE4f459cf67F08DF581885AAE7Fdc-1777575398144CTR

Invested

$117.04

Value

—

PnL

-$117.04

Record

70%

44729-19033 (63762)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$112.35

Value

$113.36

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

7703-6082 (13785)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$167.98

Value

—

PnL

-$167.98

Record

55%

6768-5539 (12307)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$39.77

Value

$137.07

PnL

+$97.3

Record

57%

10785-8171 (18956)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$16.83

Value

$63.97

PnL

+$47.14

Record

68%

75669-35734 (111403)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$64.66

Value

$63.14

PnL

-$1.52

Record

76%

24812-7703 (32515)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$20.5

Value

$34.48

PnL

+$13.98

Record

67%

13816-6882 (20698)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 36 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd4052068...0adf70

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792977900

Traders in this Market

wzbbb

Down — $1.9K

-$5.1

0x50f7

Down — $1.8K

-$22.12

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

-$688.68

CrouchPredictions

Down — $640.25

+$207.21

hoodquant

Down — $612.35

+$12.82

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $379.16

-$11.51

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $316.5

+$126.18

GoodFallen

CTR

Up — $0

-$298.04

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $218.11

-$51.82

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $203.41

+$47.21

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