Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 87% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$755.29

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 39 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down34 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares6,944

Combined PnL+$789.01

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares454

Combined PnL-$33.72

Down — 87%Up — 13%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$12.59	69% 13092-6019 (19111)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 87.5¢	$856.11	$848.52	-$7.59	56% 13548-10576 (24124)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 79.2¢	$688.3	$634.47	+$84.16	83% 28626-5825 (34451)
machinelearned	Downavg 83.6¢	$388.08	$458.35	+$70.27	56% 7685-6055 (13740)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 66.9¢	$377.86	$415.76	+$37.89	56% 6930-5384 (12314)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 96.3¢	$356.56	$364.23	+$7.67	60% 15290-10046 (25336)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 60.1¢	$269.64	$346.33	+$76.69	56% 14615-11331 (25946)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 93¢	$230.08	$227.69	-$2.39	54% 9542-8116 (17658)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.5¢	$221.28	$227	+$5.72	93% 20452-1648 (22100)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 82.4¢	$205.5	$218.32	+$12.83	61% 11529-7525 (19054)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 93.2¢	$158.71	$138.71	-$20	55% 6747-5530 (12277)
pspspsps5	Downavg 98¢	$130.04	$132.69	+$2.65	59% 15276-10726 (26002)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 44¢	$91.34	$117	+$25.66	58% 12896-9215 (22111)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44¢	$51.48	$117	+$65.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.2¢	$39.86	—	-$39.86
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 77.4¢	$101.76	$131.44	+$29.68	66% 14159-7203 (21362)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.9¢	$75.75	$130.91	+$55.16	57% 11608-8929 (20537)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 67¢	$95.96	$111.58	+$15.62	65% 15034-8065 (23099)
DV dvasdkasodk	Downavg 95.3¢	$100.99	$104.45	+$3.46	63% 19451-11308 (30759)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 87¢	$110.38	$100	-$10.38	51% 13485-12903 (26388)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 98¢	$98.98	$101	+$2.02	58% 16308-11929 (28237)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 46¢	$88.83	$189.84	+$101.01	71% 20732-8473 (29205)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 46.2¢	$86.59	$187.41	+$100.81	70% 29462-12518 (41980)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 35¢	$61.6	$176	+$114.4	71% 48783-19833 (68616)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$86.71	$80	-$6.71	49% 4626-4745 (9371)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 64.2¢	$45.66	$42.1	-$3.56	59% 19671-13549 (33220)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$34.6	$45.16	+$10.56	56% 18819-14546 (33365)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,246.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$12.59

Record

69%

13092-6019 (19111)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$856.11

Value

$848.52

PnL

-$7.59

Record

56%

13548-10576 (24124)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$688.3

Value

$634.47

PnL

+$84.16

Record

83%

28626-5825 (34451)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$388.08

Value

$458.35

PnL

+$70.27

Record

56%

7685-6055 (13740)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$377.86

Value

$415.76

PnL

+$37.89

Record

56%

6930-5384 (12314)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$356.56

Value

$364.23

PnL

+$7.67

Record

60%

15290-10046 (25336)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$269.64

Value

$346.33

PnL

+$76.69

Record

56%

14615-11331 (25946)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$230.08

Value

$227.69

PnL

-$2.39

Record

54%

9542-8116 (17658)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$221.28

Value

$227

PnL

+$5.72

Record

93%

20452-1648 (22100)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$205.5

Value

$218.32

PnL

+$12.83

Record

61%

11529-7525 (19054)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$158.71

Value

$138.71

PnL

-$20

Record

55%

6747-5530 (12277)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$130.04

Value

$132.69

PnL

+$2.65

Record

59%

15276-10726 (26002)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$91.34

Value

$117

PnL

+$25.66

Record

58%

12896-9215 (22111)

Both legs:

Down$51.4844¢+$65.52

Up$39.8633.2¢-$39.86

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$101.76

Value

$131.44

PnL

+$29.68

Record

66%

14159-7203 (21362)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$75.75

Value

$130.91

PnL

+$55.16

Record

57%

11608-8929 (20537)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$95.96

Value

$111.58

PnL

+$15.62

Record

65%

15034-8065 (23099)

dvasdkasodk

Down

Invested

$100.99

Value

$104.45

PnL

+$3.46

Record

63%

19451-11308 (30759)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$110.38

Value

$100

PnL

-$10.38

Record

51%

13485-12903 (26388)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$98.98

Value

$101

PnL

+$2.02

Record

58%

16308-11929 (28237)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$88.83

Value

$189.84

PnL

+$101.01

Record

71%

20732-8473 (29205)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$86.59

Value

$187.41

PnL

+$100.81

Record

70%

29462-12518 (41980)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$61.6

Value

$176

PnL

+$114.4

Record

71%

48783-19833 (68616)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$86.71

Value

$80

PnL

-$6.71

Record

49%

4626-4745 (9371)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$45.66

Value

$42.1

PnL

-$3.56

Record

59%

19671-13549 (33220)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$34.6

Value

$45.16

PnL

+$10.56

Record

56%

18819-14546 (33365)

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 39 top traders (87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc52cd235...ab58b3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792970100

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $1.3K

+$12.59

CrouchPredictions

Down — $848.52

-$7.59

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $634.47

+$84.16

machinelearned

Down — $458.35

+$70.27

wzbbb

Down — $415.76

+$37.89

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $364.23

+$7.67

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $346.33

+$76.69

thesidehustle

Down — $227.69

-$2.39

hoodquant

Down — $227

+$5.72

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $218.32

+$12.83

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