Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (57%) · Down at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 57%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$118.77

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,647

Combined PnL+$304.26

Up6 traders

Total Value$46.55

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL-$185.5

Down — 57%Up — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 92¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$239.22	81% 140-33 (173)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Downavg 94.8¢	$386.86	$404.17	+$17.31	57% 1254-932 (2186)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 98¢	$264.6	$267.3	+$2.7	48% 346-372 (718)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 89.3¢	$178.89	$198.39	+$19.49	55% 6735-5525 (12260)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$125.51	$125.51	-$0	69% 12879-5784 (18663)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 70.2¢	$76.42	$106.24	+$29.81	65% 15024-8050 (23074)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 90.3¢	$83.39	$79.12	-$4.27	60% 9464-6262 (15726)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Upavg 17.5¢	$61.15	$31.06	-$30.09	61% 11520-7517 (19037)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$14.24	$14.24	-$0	62% 40770-24941 (65711)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 15.9¢	$137.5	$8.66	-$137.5	57% 32486-24933 (57419)
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$10.11	$6.01	-$4.09	56% 18794-14534 (33328)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 2.7¢	$1.55	$0.58	-$0.97	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$6.48	$0.12	-$6.36	56% 11648-9203 (20851)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$6.6	$0.12	-$6.48	62% 16993-10545 (27538)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$3,166.28

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$239.22

Record

81%

140-33 (173)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Down

Invested

$386.86

Value

$404.17

PnL

+$17.31

Record

57%

1254-932 (2186)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$264.6

Value

$267.3

PnL

+$2.7

Record

48%

346-372 (718)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$178.89

Value

$198.39

PnL

+$19.49

Record

55%

6735-5525 (12260)

THG.

Down

Invested

$125.51

Value

$125.51

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

12879-5784 (18663)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$76.42

Value

$106.24

PnL

+$29.81

Record

65%

15024-8050 (23074)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$83.39

Value

$79.12

PnL

-$4.27

Record

60%

9464-6262 (15726)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Invested

$61.15

Value

$31.06

PnL

-$30.09

Record

61%

11520-7517 (19037)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$14.24

Value

$14.24

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

40770-24941 (65711)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$137.5

Value

$8.66

PnL

-$137.5

Record

57%

32486-24933 (57419)

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$10.11

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$4.09

Record

56%

18794-14534 (33328)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.97

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$6.48

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$6.36

Record

56%

11648-9203 (20851)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$6.48

Record

62%

16993-10545 (27538)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.