Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$323.26

Smart Money Entry

91.6¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,515

Combined PnL+$82.85

Down7 traders

Total Value$116.23

Total Shares808

Combined PnL-$406.11

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrDown 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Up 50% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0	69% 12879-5784 (18663)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 59.4¢	$185.86	$287.76	+$101.9	55% 6735-5525 (12260)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$48.09	$69.33	+$21.24	56% 18794-14534 (33328)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 55.2¢	$57.25	$61.54	+$4.29	56% 11648-9203 (20851)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 96¢	$112.97	$61.01	-$51.96	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR	Downavg 71.3¢	$139.27	$38.09	-$101.18	61% 11520-7517 (19037)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 88¢	$25.89	$29.13	+$3.24	67% 13654-6785 (20439)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$27.36	$25.65	-$1.71	65% 15024-8050 (23074)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$57.89	$25.52	-$32.37	60% 9464-6262 (15726)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$35.38	$22.22	-$13.16	62% 16993-10545 (27538)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.05	$5.2	+$4.15	56% 15000-11947 (26947)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Downavg 59.2¢	$226.08	$3.82	-$226.08	52% 14685-13385 (28070)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 25¢	$13.75	$0.55	-$13.75	57% 32486-24933 (57419)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$18.26	$0.39	-$17.86	70% 28789-12461 (41250)

THG.

Invested

$1,977.59

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

69%

12879-5784 (18663)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$185.86

Value

$287.76

PnL

+$101.9

Record

55%

6735-5525 (12260)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$48.09

Value

$69.33

PnL

+$21.24

Record

56%

18794-14534 (33328)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$57.25

Value

$61.54

PnL

+$4.29

Record

56%

11648-9203 (20851)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$112.97

Value

$61.01

PnL

-$51.96

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR

Down

Invested

$139.27

Value

$38.09

PnL

-$101.18

Record

61%

11520-7517 (19037)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$25.89

Value

$29.13

PnL

+$3.24

Record

67%

13654-6785 (20439)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$27.36

Value

$25.65

PnL

-$1.71

Record

65%

15024-8050 (23074)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.89

Value

$25.52

PnL

-$32.37

Record

60%

9464-6262 (15726)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.38

Value

$22.22

PnL

-$13.16

Record

62%

16993-10545 (27538)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$4.15

Record

56%

15000-11947 (26947)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Down

Invested

$226.08

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$226.08

Record

52%

14685-13385 (28070)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.75

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$13.75

Record

57%

32486-24933 (57419)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.26

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$17.86

Record

70%

28789-12461 (41250)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 71% · 7

Diverging

ctrDown 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Up 50% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.