Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (85%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$54.94

Smart Money Entry

87.5¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,817

Combined PnL+$2.2

Up2 traders

Total Value$4.04

Total Shares404

Combined PnL-$57.15

Down — 85%Up — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 99¢	$688.94	$688.94	-$0	81% 140-33 (173)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 68.9¢	$312.27	$385.94	+$74.32	55% 6735-5525 (12260)
SE seeeeeeb	Downavg 97¢	$261.9	$267.3	+$5.4	48% 346-372 (718)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 86.5¢	$193.07	$116.17	-$76.89	61% 11520-7517 (19037)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 82¢	$112.73	$99.17	-$13.55	56% 11648-9203 (20851)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 87.2¢	$64.04	$54.46	-$9.59	62% 16993-10545 (27538)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 78.2¢	$41.82	$52.95	+$11.13	63% 19263-11278 (30541)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100	Downavg 93.6¢	$48.2	$50.99	+$2.78	57% 1254-932 (2186)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 84.8¢	$57.96	$48.24	-$9.72	56% 18794-14534 (33328)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 41¢	$20.15	$25.37	+$5.23	65% 15024-8050 (23074)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 28.7¢	$5.35	$18.45	+$13.1	56% 15000-11947 (26947)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 9.7¢	$31.35	$3.24	-$31.35	57% 32486-24933 (57419)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 33.2¢	$26.6	$0.8	-$25.8	60% 9464-6262 (15726)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$688.94

Value

$688.94

PnL

-$0

Record

81%

140-33 (173)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$312.27

Value

$385.94

PnL

+$74.32

Record

55%

6735-5525 (12260)

seeeeeeb

Down

Invested

$261.9

Value

$267.3

PnL

+$5.4

Record

48%

346-372 (718)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$193.07

Value

$116.17

PnL

-$76.89

Record

61%

11520-7517 (19037)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$112.73

Value

$99.17

PnL

-$13.55

Record

56%

11648-9203 (20851)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$64.04

Value

$54.46

PnL

-$9.59

Record

62%

16993-10545 (27538)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$41.82

Value

$52.95

PnL

+$11.13

Record

63%

19263-11278 (30541)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100

Down

Invested

$48.2

Value

$50.99

PnL

+$2.78

Record

57%

1254-932 (2186)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$57.96

Value

$48.24

PnL

-$9.72

Record

56%

18794-14534 (33328)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$20.15

Value

$25.37

PnL

+$5.23

Record

65%

15024-8050 (23074)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$5.35

Value

$18.45

PnL

+$13.1

Record

56%

15000-11947 (26947)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$31.35

Value

$3.24

PnL

-$31.35

Record

57%

32486-24933 (57419)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$26.6

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$25.8

Record

60%

9464-6262 (15726)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDown 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.