Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

27 of 33 top Polymarket traders hold Up (82%) · Up at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 25

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$217.48

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

27 of 33 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,498

Combined PnL+$86.15

Down6 traders

Total Value$734.12

Total Shares2,889

Combined PnL-$303.63

Up — 82%Down — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$68.1	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 84.2¢	$767.62	$707.44	-$60.18	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
machinelearned	Upavg 92.3¢	$664.88	$598.31	-$66.57	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
RO robustmstCTR	Downavg 35¢	$900	$579.37	-$320.63	47% 85-94 (179)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 60.8¢	$399.62	$420.43	+$20.81	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
pspspsps5	Upavg 83.4¢	$397.3	$369.12	-$28.18	59% 15217-10664 (25881)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 53¢	$190.32	$241.84	+$51.51	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 50.4¢	$151.64	$181.11	+$29.47	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 50.4¢	$113.77	$174.87	+$61.1	71% 20609-8429 (29038)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 86.9¢	$214.26	$174.64	-$39.62	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$147.86	$151.18	+$3.31	65% 15002-8029 (23031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$98.38	$110.23	+$11.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$49.48	$40.95	-$8.53
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 59.8¢	$117.08	$133.22	+$17.29	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 70.3¢	$131.1	$120.39	-$10.71	57% 10613-8007 (18620)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$109.24	$100.22	-$9.02	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.2¢	$67.4	$76.6	+$9.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.9¢	$41.84	$23.62	-$18.22
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 62.8¢	$74.52	$97.31	+$22.79	60% 15115-9973 (25088)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 78.2¢	$83.22	$82.49	-$0.73	55% 38143-31228 (69371)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$52.2	$72.34	+$20.14	60% 9446-6238 (15684)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$68.8	$72.05	+$3.25	58% 11064-8112 (19176)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$55.2	$59.4	+$4.2	70% 47133-19790 (66923)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 48¢	$45.25	$51.42	+$6.16	56% 11631-9183 (20814)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 97.9¢	$48.95	$49.75	+$0.8	93% 20381-1637 (22018)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 92¢	$58.02	$47.48	-$10.54	76% 24117-7611 (31728)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 93.3¢	$45.48	$36.77	-$8.71	62% 13878-8687 (22565)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 63.8¢	$24.43	$26.59	+$2.16	58% 16229-11843 (28072)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 60¢	$16.38	$20.94	+$4.56	56% 18773-14518 (33291)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,138.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$68.1

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

wzbbb

Invested

$767.62

Value

$707.44

PnL

-$60.18

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

machinelearned

Invested

$664.88

Value

$598.31

PnL

-$66.57

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

robustmstCTR

Down

Invested

$900

Value

$579.37

PnL

-$320.63

Record

47%

85-94 (179)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$399.62

Value

$420.43

PnL

+$20.81

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

pspspsps5

Invested

$397.3

Value

$369.12

PnL

-$28.18

Record

59%

15217-10664 (25881)

ply-pm0

Invested

$190.32

Value

$241.84

PnL

+$51.51

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

GoodFallen

Invested

$151.64

Value

$181.11

PnL

+$29.47

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$113.77

Value

$174.87

PnL

+$61.1

Record

71%

20609-8429 (29038)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$214.26

Value

$174.64

PnL

-$39.62

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$147.86

Value

$151.18

PnL

+$3.31

Record

65%

15002-8029 (23031)

Both legs:

Up$98.3869.2¢+$11.84

Down$49.4827.2¢-$8.53

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$117.08

Value

$133.22

PnL

+$17.29

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$131.1

Value

$120.39

PnL

-$10.71

Record

57%

10613-8007 (18620)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$109.24

Value

$100.22

PnL

-$9.02

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

Both legs:

Up$67.468.2¢+$9.2

Down$41.8439.9¢-$18.22

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$74.52

Value

$97.31

PnL

+$22.79

Record

60%

15115-9973 (25088)

almach<$100

Invested

$83.22

Value

$82.49

PnL

-$0.73

Record

55%

38143-31228 (69371)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$52.2

Value

$72.34

PnL

+$20.14

Record

60%

9446-6238 (15684)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$68.8

Value

$72.05

PnL

+$3.25

Record

58%

11064-8112 (19176)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$55.2

Value

$59.4

PnL

+$4.2

Record

70%

47133-19790 (66923)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$45.25

Value

$51.42

PnL

+$6.16

Record

56%

11631-9183 (20814)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$48.95

Value

$49.75

PnL

+$0.8

Record

93%

20381-1637 (22018)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$58.02

Value

$47.48

PnL

-$10.54

Record

76%

24117-7611 (31728)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$45.48

Value

$36.77

PnL

-$8.71

Record

62%

13878-8687 (22565)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$24.43

Value

$26.59

PnL

+$2.16

Record

58%

16229-11843 (28072)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$16.38

Value

$20.94

PnL

+$4.56

Record

56%

18773-14518 (33291)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

27 of 33 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.