Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

$435.54

Smart Money Signal

Down

33 of 40 top traders (83%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down33 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares17,790

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,848

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 96.2¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$178.47	71% 20609-8429 (29038)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.14	69% 12861-5779 (18640)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.84	93% 20381-1637 (22018)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 70.3¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$295.42	81% 130-30 (160)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 87.7¢	$762.13	$869.33	+$107.2	58% 16229-11843 (28072)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR	Upavg 35.3¢	$882.02	—	-$882.02	52% 811-742 (1553)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 44.1¢	$400.77	$908	+$507.23	70% 47133-19790 (66923)
machinelearned	Downavg 73.4¢	$521.03	$563.26	+$42.24	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 61.2¢	$347.52	$567.49	+$219.97	52% 14398-13171 (27569)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 78¢	$519.1	$665.65	+$146.55	57% 32454-24904 (57358)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 69.5¢	$380.52	$455.01	+$75.29	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 63¢	$278.16	$439.95	+$161.79	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
pspspsps5	Downavg 77.8¢	$345.41	$443.84	+$98.43	59% 15217-10664 (25881)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 72.1¢	$283.88	$351.94	+$68.06	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 72.8¢	$203.23	$278.99	+$75.76	60% 15115-9973 (25088)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 80.6¢	$290.29	$228.46	-$61.83	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Downavg 61.7¢	$184.54	$229.37	+$44.83	65% 15002-8029 (23031)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.2¢	$215.06	$455.18	+$240.13	70% 28260-12370 (40630)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 74.9¢	$252.61	$217.98	-$34.63	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
AtomforgeCTR	Upavg 35.7¢	$193.01	—	-$193.01	65% 3151-1671 (4822)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR	Upavg 39.6¢	$180.17	—	-$177.65	59% 1208-852 (2060)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 74.3¢	$192.36	$150.97	-$41.38	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 59.3¢	$119.85	$199.94	+$80.09	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 82.4¢	$145.77	$111	-$34.77	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
Bossgirl	Downavg 74.3¢	$133.35	$105	-$28.35	54% 3678-3080 (6758)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$4,505.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$178.47

Record

71%

20609-8429 (29038)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,587.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.14

Record

69%

12861-5779 (18640)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,370.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.84

Record

93%

20381-1637 (22018)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$1,467.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$295.42

Record

81%

130-30 (160)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$762.13

Value

$869.33

PnL

+$107.2

Record

58%

16229-11843 (28072)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR

Invested

$882.02

Value

—

PnL

-$882.02

Record

52%

811-742 (1553)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$400.77

Value

$908

PnL

+$507.23

Record

70%

47133-19790 (66923)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$521.03

Value

$563.26

PnL

+$42.24

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$347.52

Value

$567.49

PnL

+$219.97

Record

52%

14398-13171 (27569)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$519.1

Value

$665.65

PnL

+$146.55

Record

57%

32454-24904 (57358)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$380.52

Value

$455.01

PnL

+$75.29

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$278.16

Value

$439.95

PnL

+$161.79

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$345.41

Value

$443.84

PnL

+$98.43

Record

59%

15217-10664 (25881)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$283.88

Value

$351.94

PnL

+$68.06

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$203.23

Value

$278.99

PnL

+$75.76

Record

60%

15115-9973 (25088)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$290.29

Value

$228.46

PnL

-$61.83

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Down

Invested

$184.54

Value

$229.37

PnL

+$44.83

Record

65%

15002-8029 (23031)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$215.06

Value

$455.18

PnL

+$240.13

Record

70%

28260-12370 (40630)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$252.61

Value

$217.98

PnL

-$34.63

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

AtomforgeCTR

Invested

$193.01

Value

—

PnL

-$193.01

Record

65%

3151-1671 (4822)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700CTR

Invested

$180.17

Value

—

PnL

-$177.65

Record

59%

1208-852 (2060)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$192.36

Value

$150.97

PnL

-$41.38

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$119.85

Value

$199.94

PnL

+$80.09

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$145.77

Value

$111

PnL

-$34.77

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$133.35

Value

$105

PnL

-$28.35

Record

54%

3678-3080 (6758)

Smart Money Signal

Down

33 of 40 top traders (83%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9d9f71fa...59276d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792951800

Traders in this Market

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $4.7K

+$178.47

THG.

Down — $2.6K

+$26.14

hoodquant

Down — $1.4K

+$13.84

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $1.2K

-$295.42

MayorMamdani

Down — $869.33

+$107.2

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

CTR

Up — $0

-$882.02

Bonereaper

Down — $908

+$507.23

machinelearned

Down — $563.26

+$42.24

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $567.49

+$219.97

uninformedfloww

Down — $665.65

+$146.55

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