Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$414.83

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,518

Combined PnL+$639.66

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares886

Combined PnL-$224.83

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.12	69% 12861-5779 (18640)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.2¢	$685.4	$740.52	+$55.12	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$635.12	$641.54	+$6.42	79% 54764-14368 (69132)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$594.99	$601	+$6.01	93% 20381-1637 (22018)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$504.9	$369.72	-$135.18	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.9¢	$313.77	$369.72	+$55.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.6¢	$191.12	—	-$191.12
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$426.47	$368.23	-$58.24	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$218.02	$368.23	+$150.21
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$208.45	—	-$208.45
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 52.5¢	$415.57	$791.2	+$375.63	71% 20609-8429 (29038)
machinelearned	Downavg 85.6¢	$423.61	$441.16	+$17.55	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 59.5¢	$305.9	$306.31	+$0.42	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 70.5¢	$155.78	$175.99	+$20.21	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Downavg 91.6¢	$160.89	$148.2	-$12.69	60% 15115-9973 (25088)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.6¢	$135.81	$148.2	+$12.39
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.6¢	$25.08	—	-$25.08
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 75.5¢	$167.77	$165.7	-$2.08	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$166.71	$148.18	-$14.68	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.5¢	$110.44	$148.18	+$37.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$52.55	—	-$52.55
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.8¢	$134.28	$165	+$30.72	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
pspspsps5	Downavg 93.1¢	$116.22	$121.29	+$5.07	59% 15217-10664 (25881)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 69.5¢	$116.22	$116.55	+$0.33	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 71.4¢	$77.65	$108	+$30.35	62% 16976-10525 (27501)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 93¢	$103	$100	-$3	51% 13181-12608 (25789)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 73.5¢	$84.29	$99.45	+$15.16	56% 18773-14518 (33291)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 45.7¢	$84.3	—	-$84.3	70% 28260-12370 (40630)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$76.23	$85.22	+$8.99	56% 11631-9183 (20814)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$16.78	—	-$16.78	79% 28217-7375 (35592)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$66.13	$71.74	+$5.61	62% 13878-8687 (22565)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 78.3¢	$55.18	$70.47	+$15.29	55% 38143-31228 (69371)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$52.98	$60.85	+$7.86	76% 24117-7611 (31728)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,585.88

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.12

Record

69%

12861-5779 (18640)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$685.4

Value

$740.52

PnL

+$55.12

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$635.12

Value

$641.54

PnL

+$6.42

Record

79%

54764-14368 (69132)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$594.99

Value

$601

PnL

+$6.01

Record

93%

20381-1637 (22018)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$504.9

Value

$369.72

PnL

-$135.18

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

Both legs:

Down$313.7784.9¢+$55.95

Up$191.1220.6¢-$191.12

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$426.47

Value

$368.23

PnL

-$58.24

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

Both legs:

Down$218.0259.2¢+$150.21

Up$208.4536.3¢-$208.45

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$415.57

Value

$791.2

PnL

+$375.63

Record

71%

20609-8429 (29038)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$423.61

Value

$441.16

PnL

+$17.55

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$305.9

Value

$306.31

PnL

+$0.42

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$155.78

Value

$175.99

PnL

+$20.21

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.89

Value

$148.2

PnL

-$12.69

Record

60%

15115-9973 (25088)

Both legs:

Down$135.8191.6¢+$12.39

Up$25.0811.6¢-$25.08

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$167.77

Value

$165.7

PnL

-$2.08

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.71

Value

$148.18

PnL

-$14.68

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

Both legs:

Down$110.4474.5¢+$37.86

Up$52.5529.3¢-$52.55

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$134.28

Value

$165

PnL

+$30.72

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

pspspsps5

Down

Invested

$116.22

Value

$121.29

PnL

+$5.07

Record

59%

15217-10664 (25881)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$116.22

Value

$116.55

PnL

+$0.33

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$77.65

Value

$108

PnL

+$30.35

Record

62%

16976-10525 (27501)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$103

Value

$100

PnL

-$3

Record

51%

13181-12608 (25789)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$84.29

Value

$99.45

PnL

+$15.16

Record

56%

18773-14518 (33291)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$84.3

Value

—

PnL

-$84.3

Record

70%

28260-12370 (40630)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$76.23

Value

$85.22

PnL

+$8.99

Record

56%

11631-9183 (20814)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$16.78

Value

—

PnL

-$16.78

Record

79%

28217-7375 (35592)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$66.13

Value

$71.74

PnL

+$5.61

Record

62%

13878-8687 (22565)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$55.18

Value

$70.47

PnL

+$15.29

Record

55%

38143-31228 (69371)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$52.98

Value

$60.85

PnL

+$7.86

Record

76%

24117-7611 (31728)

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 31 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x069f1fbd...35e2fa

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792951500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $2.6K

+$26.12

CrouchPredictions

Down — $740.52

+$55.12

BoneOhio

Down — $641.54

+$6.42

hoodquant

Down — $601

+$6.01

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$135.18

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$58.24

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $791.2

+$375.63

machinelearned

Down — $441.16

+$17.55

GoodFallen

Down — $306.31

+$0.42

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $175.99

+$20.21

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