Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.0K

Combined PnL

$6.7K

Smart Money Signal

27 of 50 top traders (54%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up27 traders

Total Value$35.3K

Total Shares35,338

Combined PnL+$9.0K

Down23 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,838

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up — 54%Down — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883	Upavg 43.6¢	$4.3K	$9.9K	+$5.6K	— 10-7 (17)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$6.2	79% 28217-7375 (35592)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	79% 54764-14368 (69132)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 74.8¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$704.78	81% 130-30 (160)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$19.05	93% 20381-1637 (22018)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Upavg 62¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$697.52	52% 222-202 (424)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 68¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$103.48	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 68.5¢	$1.1K	$959.81	-$100.92	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$1.1K	$805.87	-$317.19	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$562.82	$805.87	+$243.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.3¢	$560.24	—	-$560.24
31 3123123121313	Upavg 76.4¢	$894.21	$1.1K	+$239.11	55% 636-510 (1146)
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529	Upavg 73.5¢	$818.08	$1.1K	+$294.39	54% 827-706 (1533)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.9¢	$828.51	$759.72	-$68.79	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 76¢	$840.67	$797.54	-$43.13	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh	Upavg 73.9¢	$736.85	$997.24	+$260.39	57% 1249-928 (2177)
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e	Upavg 71.4¢	$710.41	$995.38	+$284.98	53% 1539-1341 (2880)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 79¢	$967.49	$705.01	-$262.47	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$556.78	$705.01	+$148.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.9¢	$410.71	—	-$410.71
Bossgirl	Upavg 58.7¢	$572.4	$975	+$402.6	54% 3678-3080 (6758)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.2¢	$730.36	$686.53	-$40.28	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05	Upavg 72.2¢	$436.03	$603.96	+$167.93	54% 3299-2835 (6134)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 26.6¢	$529.16	—	-$529.16	57% 32454-24904 (57358)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$583	$387.27	-$195.72	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$286.15	$387.27	+$101.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$296.85	—	-$296.85
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176	Upavg 74.6¢	$385.29	$516.51	+$131.22	54% 5730-4900 (10630)
Atomforge	Upavg 73.5¢	$345.39	$469.78	+$124.39	65% 3151-1671 (4822)
AS asdaasda	Upavg 71.8¢	$287.75	$400.9	+$113.15	55% 914-741 (1655)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 75.2¢	$349.9	$283.28	-$66.62	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.2¢	$213.03	$283.28	+$70.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.9¢	$136.86	—	-$136.86

0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883

Invested

$4,308.73

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

—

10-7 (17)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,094.21

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$6.2

Record

79%

28217-7375 (35592)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

79%

54764-14368 (69132)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$2,285.07

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$704.78

Record

81%

130-30 (160)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,885.95

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$19.05

Record

93%

20381-1637 (22018)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$1,137.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$697.52

Record

52%

222-202 (424)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,408.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$103.48

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

wzbbb

Invested

$1,060.73

Value

$959.81

PnL

-$100.92

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$1,123.06

Value

$805.87

PnL

-$317.19

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

Both legs:

Up$562.8269.8¢+$243.05

Down$560.2428.3¢-$560.24

3123123121313

Invested

$894.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$239.11

Record

55%

636-510 (1146)

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529

Invested

$818.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$294.39

Record

54%

827-706 (1533)

GoodFallen

Invested

$828.51

Value

$759.72

PnL

-$68.79

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$840.67

Value

$797.54

PnL

-$43.13

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh

Invested

$736.85

Value

$997.24

PnL

+$260.39

Record

57%

1249-928 (2177)

0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e

Invested

$710.41

Value

$995.38

PnL

+$284.98

Record

53%

1539-1341 (2880)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$967.49

Value

$705.01

PnL

-$262.47

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

Both legs:

Up$556.7879¢+$148.23

Down$410.7139.9¢-$410.71

Bossgirl

Invested

$572.4

Value

$975

PnL

+$402.6

Record

54%

3678-3080 (6758)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$730.36

Value

$686.53

PnL

-$40.28

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05

Invested

$436.03

Value

$603.96

PnL

+$167.93

Record

54%

3299-2835 (6134)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$529.16

Value

—

PnL

-$529.16

Record

57%

32454-24904 (57358)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$583

Value

$387.27

PnL

-$195.72

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

Both legs:

Up$286.1573.9¢+$101.12

Down$296.8544.9¢-$296.85

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Invested

$385.29

Value

$516.51

PnL

+$131.22

Record

54%

5730-4900 (10630)

Atomforge

Invested

$345.39

Value

$469.78

PnL

+$124.39

Record

65%

3151-1671 (4822)

asdaasda

Invested

$287.75

Value

$400.9

PnL

+$113.15

Record

55%

914-741 (1655)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$349.9

Value

$283.28

PnL

-$66.62

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

Both legs:

Up$213.0375.2¢+$70.25

Down$136.8633.9¢-$136.86

Smart Money Signal

27 of 50 top traders (54%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2ba0f013...75a7d3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792951200

Traders in this Market

0xb4f8df877a319789b857ec02b49338b7bcdf0213-1792799199883

Up — $9.9K

+$5.6K

0x50f7

Up — $3.1K

-$6.2

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

+$30.01

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Up — $3.0K

+$704.78

hoodquant

Up — $1.9K

+$19.05

oxe78sh4w98

Up — $1.8K

+$697.52

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

-$103.48

wzbbb

Up — $959.81

-$100.92

machinelearned

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$317.19

3123123121313

Up — $1.1K

+$239.11

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