Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.7K

Combined PnL

$137.11

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 47 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$32.2K

Total Shares32,212

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Up22 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,988

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324	Downavg 64¢	$4.6K	$7.2K	+$2.6K	52% 811-742 (1553)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$40.78	79% 28217-7375 (35592)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	79% 54764-14368 (69132)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.09	69% 12861-5779 (18640)
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Downavg 62.4¢	$2.5K	$3.6K	+$1.1K	81% 130-30 (160)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 82.3¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$180.83	58% 16229-11843 (28072)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 62.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$179.46	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 39.2¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
machinelearned	Downavg 60.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$71.39	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 63.5¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$178.81	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
YO YouSayUpISayDown	Downavg 57.3¢	$751.46	$1.3K	+$559.78	62% 1603-999 (2602)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 94.8¢	$881.72	$783	-$98.72	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 60.5¢	$721.31	$711.43	-$9.88	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 36¢	$546.75	—	-$546.75	57% 32454-24904 (57358)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 63.8¢	$497.93	$435.58	-$62.36	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.8¢	$277.89	$435.58	+$157.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.4¢	$220.04	—	-$220.04
Atomforge	Downavg 63.8¢	$453.46	$703.21	+$249.75	65% 3151-1671 (4822)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 39¢	$646.34	—	-$646.34	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 61.3¢	$396.69	$613.93	+$217.24	71% 20609-8429 (29038)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 57.2¢	$326.91	$327.44	+$0.52	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 39¢	$350.55	—	-$350.55	52% 14398-13171 (27569)
0X 0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700	Downavg 61¢	$303.34	$481.44	+$188.18	59% 1208-852 (2060)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 37.5¢	$373.5	—	-$373.5	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
wowitsamazing	Downavg 59¢	$147.66	$246.14	+$98.48	60% 10550-7003 (17553)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 45.1¢	$235.12	$100	-$135.12	70% 47133-19790 (66923)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$188.67	—	-$188.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.5¢	$46.45	$100	+$53.55
Bossgirl	Downavg 63.2¢	$230.68	$332.98	+$102.3	54% 3678-3080 (6758)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down

Invested

$4,618

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

52%

811-742 (1553)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$4,037.23

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$40.78

Record

79%

28217-7375 (35592)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

79%

54764-14368 (69132)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,582.91

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.09

Record

69%

12861-5779 (18640)

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down

Invested

$2,470.56

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

81%

130-30 (160)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$2,154.79

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$180.83

Record

58%

16229-11843 (28072)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$1,313.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$179.46

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,612.67

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$1,116.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$71.39

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$1,288.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$178.81

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

YouSayUpISayDown

Down

Invested

$751.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$559.78

Record

62%

1603-999 (2602)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$881.72

Value

$783

PnL

-$98.72

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$721.31

Value

$711.43

PnL

-$9.88

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$546.75

Value

—

PnL

-$546.75

Record

57%

32454-24904 (57358)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$497.93

Value

$435.58

PnL

-$62.36

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

Both legs:

Down$277.8963.8¢+$157.68

Up$220.0435.4¢-$220.04

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$453.46

Value

$703.21

PnL

+$249.75

Record

65%

3151-1671 (4822)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$646.34

Value

—

PnL

-$646.34

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$396.69

Value

$613.93

PnL

+$217.24

Record

71%

20609-8429 (29038)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$326.91

Value

$327.44

PnL

+$0.52

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$350.55

Value

—

PnL

-$350.55

Record

52%

14398-13171 (27569)

0x9CBB1a5C3352691F07E2e26209193Ce5a2C433d0-1777993226700

Down

Invested

$303.34

Value

$481.44

PnL

+$188.18

Record

59%

1208-852 (2060)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$373.5

Value

—

PnL

-$373.5

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

wowitsamazing

Down

Invested

$147.66

Value

$246.14

PnL

+$98.48

Record

60%

10550-7003 (17553)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$235.12

Value

$100

PnL

-$135.12

Record

70%

47133-19790 (66923)

Both legs:

Up$188.6745.1¢-$188.67

Down$46.4546.5¢+$53.55

Bossgirl

Down

Invested

$230.68

Value

$332.98

PnL

+$102.3

Record

54%

3678-3080 (6758)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 47 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed22 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7a41df3f...38f121

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792950900

Traders in this Market

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324

Down — $7.2K

+$2.6K

0x50f7

Down — $4.1K

+$40.78

BoneOhio

Down — $3.0K

+$30.01

THG.

Down — $2.6K

+$26.09

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Down — $3.6K

+$1.1K

MayorMamdani

Down — $2.0K

-$180.83

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $1.5K

+$179.46

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.6K

machinelearned

Down — $1.2K

+$71.39

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $1.1K

-$178.81

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