Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

18 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$516.81

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 21 top traders (38%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,227

Combined PnL-$619.83

Up13 traders

Total Value$741.61

Total Shares742

Combined PnL+$103.02

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$175.58	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$440.73	—	-$440.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.1¢	$594.48	$1.2K	+$616.31
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$952.41	$1.2K	+$225.3	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$695.21	$1.2K	+$482.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.2¢	$257.2	—	-$257.2
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 46.4¢	$687.52	$803.6	+$116.08	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47¢	$314.82	—	-$314.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.4¢	$372.7	$803.6	+$430.9
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$570.39	$527.13	-$43.26	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$199.56	—	-$199.56
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$370.83	$527.13	+$156.3
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$476.48	$478.59	+$2.11	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$211.83	—	-$211.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.3¢	$264.65	$478.59	+$213.95
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 69.8¢	$523.56	$443.25	-$80.31	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$214.08	—	-$214.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.8¢	$309.48	$443.25	+$133.77
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$376.37	$332.03	-$44.34	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$203.61	—	-$203.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$172.76	$332.03	+$159.27
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$338.86	$362.29	+$23.43	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.3¢	$168.31	—	-$168.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.1¢	$170.55	$362.29	+$191.74
NIULAI4CTR	Downavg 52¢	$306.71	—	-$306.71	78% 8962-2549 (11511)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 62.5¢	$218.56	$198	-$20.56	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$305.35	$233.89	-$71.47	57% 10613-8007 (18620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.7¢	$151.31	—	-$151.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.9¢	$154.05	$233.89	+$79.84
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 27.9¢	$70.77	—	-$70.77	58% 11064-8112 (19176)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 39.4¢	$129.22	—	-$129.22	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$153.28	$241.5	+$88.22	83% 60158-11892 (72050)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$130.01	$241.5	+$111.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$23.27	—	-$23.27
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 47.3¢	$120.09	$105.42	-$14.67	56% 18773-14518 (33291)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.3¢	$60.35	—	-$60.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$59.75	$105.42	+$45.67
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 86.5¢	$130.87	$151.32	+$20.45	66% 13643-7182 (20825)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Upavg 29.9¢	$57.93	$149.33	+$91.39	59% 15217-10664 (25881)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.9¢	$44.59	$149.33	+$104.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.9¢	$13.34	—	-$13.34
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$99.66	$84.39	-$15.27	60% 9446-6238 (15684)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.3¢	$48.86	—	-$48.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$50.8	$84.39	+$33.59
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$112.75	$89.96	-$22.79	76% 24117-7611 (31728)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$45.43	—	-$45.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 74.8¢	$67.32	$89.96	+$22.64
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 59.9¢	$104.4	$111.42	+$7.02	56% 11631-9183 (20814)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$66.69	$111.42	+$44.73
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$37.71	—	-$37.71
OhioRiskManagementARB<$100	Upavg 41.7¢	$48.79	$60.32	+$11.52	60% 15115-9973 (25088)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.9¢	$23.64	—	-$23.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.7¢	$25.15	$60.32	+$35.17
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$74.24	$71.99	-$2.25	62% 16976-10525 (27501)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.8¢	$33.69	—	-$33.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$40.55	$71.99	+$31.44
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$44.19	$81.89	+$37.7	65% 15002-8029 (23031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.6¢	$32.46	$81.89	+$49.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 23¢	$11.73	—	-$11.73
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 60.4¢	$85.95	$136.41	+$50.46	56% 14956-11913 (26869)
AL almach<$100	Upavg 70¢	$43.4	$62	+$18.6	55% 38143-31228 (69371)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,035.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$175.58

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

Both legs:

Down$440.7344.7¢-$440.73

Up$594.4849.1¢+$616.31

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$952.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$225.3

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

Both legs:

Up$695.2159¢+$482.5

Down$257.239.2¢-$257.2

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$687.52

Value

$803.6

PnL

+$116.08

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

Both legs:

Down$314.8247¢-$314.82

Up$372.746.4¢+$430.9

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$570.39

Value

$527.13

PnL

-$43.26

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

Both legs:

Down$199.5640.7¢-$199.56

Up$370.8370.3¢+$156.3

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$476.48

Value

$478.59

PnL

+$2.11

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

Both legs:

Down$211.8345.1¢-$211.83

Up$264.6555.3¢+$213.95

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$523.56

Value

$443.25

PnL

-$80.31

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

Both legs:

Down$214.0846.6¢-$214.08

Up$309.4869.8¢+$133.77

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$376.37

Value

$332.03

PnL

-$44.34

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

Both legs:

Down$203.6149.2¢-$203.61

Up$172.7652¢+$159.27

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$338.86

Value

$362.29

PnL

+$23.43

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

Both legs:

Down$168.3146.3¢-$168.31

Up$170.5547.1¢+$191.74

NIULAI4CTR

Down

Invested

$306.71

Value

—

PnL

-$306.71

Record

78%

8962-2549 (11511)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$218.56

Value

$198

PnL

-$20.56

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$305.35

Value

$233.89

PnL

-$71.47

Record

57%

10613-8007 (18620)

Both legs:

Down$151.3153.7¢-$151.31

Up$154.0565.9¢+$79.84

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.77

Value

—

PnL

-$70.77

Record

58%

11064-8112 (19176)

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$129.22

Value

—

PnL

-$129.22

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$153.28

Value

$241.5

PnL

+$88.22

Record

83%

60158-11892 (72050)

Both legs:

Up$130.0153.8¢+$111.5

Down$23.2732¢-$23.27

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.09

Value

$105.42

PnL

-$14.67

Record

56%

18773-14518 (33291)

Both legs:

Down$60.3547.3¢-$60.35

Up$59.7556.7¢+$45.67

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$130.87

Value

$151.32

PnL

+$20.45

Record

66%

13643-7182 (20825)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Invested

$57.93

Value

$149.33

PnL

+$91.39

Record

59%

15217-10664 (25881)

Both legs:

Up$44.5929.9¢+$104.73

Down$13.3419.9¢-$13.34

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$99.66

Value

$84.39

PnL

-$15.27

Record

60%

9446-6238 (15684)

Both legs:

Down$48.8644.3¢-$48.86

Up$50.860.2¢+$33.59

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$112.75

Value

$89.96

PnL

-$22.79

Record

76%

24117-7611 (31728)

Both legs:

Down$45.4343.1¢-$45.43

Up$67.3274.8¢+$22.64

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$104.4

Value

$111.42

PnL

+$7.02

Record

56%

11631-9183 (20814)

Both legs:

Up$66.6959.9¢+$44.73

Down$37.7160.1¢-$37.71

OhioRiskManagementARB<$100

Invested

$48.79

Value

$60.32

PnL

+$11.52

Record

60%

15115-9973 (25088)

Both legs:

Down$23.6426.9¢-$23.64

Up$25.1541.7¢+$35.17

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$74.24

Value

$71.99

PnL

-$2.25

Record

62%

16976-10525 (27501)

Both legs:

Down$33.6945.8¢-$33.69

Up$40.5556.3¢+$31.44

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$44.19

Value

$81.89

PnL

+$37.7

Record

65%

15002-8029 (23031)

Both legs:

Up$32.4639.6¢+$49.43

Down$11.7323¢-$11.73

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$85.95

Value

$136.41

PnL

+$50.46

Record

56%

14956-11913 (26869)

almach<$100

Invested

$43.4

Value

$62

PnL

+$18.6

Record

55%

38143-31228 (69371)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 21 top traders (38%)18 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x9da89287...a5dff9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792950600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$80.31

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Up — $198

-$20.56

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