Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 35%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$745.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 28 top traders (39%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL+$158.82

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL-$904.7

Down — 39%Up — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.5¢	$994.73	$1.1K	+$62.45	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.1¢	$397.45	—	-$397.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.5¢	$597.28	$1.1K	+$459.9
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 74.4¢	$856.46	$989.73	+$133.28	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 71¢	$703.5	$693.65	-$9.86	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$605.8	$611.92	+$6.12	93% 20381-1637 (22018)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 60.9¢	$479.03	$443.07	-$35.96	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.5¢	$209.42	—	-$209.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.9¢	$269.61	$443.07	+$173.46
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$476.38	$483.91	+$7.54	65% 15002-8029 (23031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$102.02	—	-$102.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 77.4¢	$374.35	$483.91	+$109.56
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$394.25	$345.8	-$48.46	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.8¢	$129.59	—	-$129.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.5¢	$264.66	$345.8	+$81.14
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$63.16	—	-$63.16	60% 10550-7003 (17553)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 24.3¢	$123.91	—	-$123.91	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$356.24	$371.58	+$15.34	57% 10613-8007 (18620)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$105.89	—	-$105.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$250.36	$371.58	+$121.23
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 55.6¢	$168.6	$202.61	+$34	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$250.22	$238.45	-$11.77	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.5¢	$114.44	—	-$114.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$135.79	$238.45	+$102.66
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$463.37	$518.29	+$54.92	78% 8962-2549 (11511)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.6¢	$453.9	$518.29	+$64.38
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.1¢	$9.47	—	-$9.47
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 67.4¢	$305.54	$339.68	+$35.14	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$73.94	—	-$75.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.4¢	$228.99	$339.68	+$110.69
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$250.73	$299.61	+$48.89	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.8¢	$73.2	—	-$73.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$177.52	$299.61	+$122.09
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 40.9¢	$98.06	—	-$98.06	60% 9446-6238 (15684)
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 53.7¢	$125.21	—	-$125.21	70% 47133-19790 (66923)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$93.32	—	-$93.32	62% 16976-10525 (27501)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 58.4¢	$125.1	$68.99	-$55.06	69% 69291-31631 (100922)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$44.15	$68.99	+$24.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.4¢	$78.03	—	-$79.9
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$72.41	—	-$72.41	56% 11631-9183 (20814)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 67.8¢	$65.63	$52.48	-$13.15	76% 24117-7611 (31728)
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$68.71	—	-$68.71	56% 18773-14518 (33291)
AL almachCTR<$100	Upavg 34.5¢	$36.62	—	-$36.62	55% 38143-31228 (69371)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 25.3¢	$34.62	—	-$34.62	60% 15115-9973 (25088)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$33.42	—	-$33.42	70% 28260-12370 (40630)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$994.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$62.45

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

Both legs:

Up$397.4540.1¢-$397.45

Down$597.2856.5¢+$459.9

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$856.46

Value

$989.73

PnL

+$133.28

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$703.5

Value

$693.65

PnL

-$9.86

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$605.8

Value

$611.92

PnL

+$6.12

Record

93%

20381-1637 (22018)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$479.03

Value

$443.07

PnL

-$35.96

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

Both legs:

Up$209.4238.5¢-$209.42

Down$269.6160.9¢+$173.46

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$476.38

Value

$483.91

PnL

+$7.54

Record

65%

15002-8029 (23031)

Both legs:

Up$102.0220.1¢-$102.02

Down$374.3577.4¢+$109.56

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$394.25

Value

$345.8

PnL

-$48.46

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

Both legs:

Up$129.5930.8¢-$129.59

Down$264.6676.5¢+$81.14

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$63.16

Value

—

PnL

-$63.16

Record

60%

10550-7003 (17553)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$123.91

Value

—

PnL

-$123.91

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$356.24

Value

$371.58

PnL

+$15.34

Record

57%

10613-8007 (18620)

Both legs:

Up$105.8937.9¢-$105.89

Down$250.3667.4¢+$121.23

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$168.6

Value

$202.61

PnL

+$34

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$250.22

Value

$238.45

PnL

-$11.77

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

Both legs:

Up$114.4441.5¢-$114.44

Down$135.7956.9¢+$102.66

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$463.37

Value

$518.29

PnL

+$54.92

Record

78%

8962-2549 (11511)

Both legs:

Down$453.987.6¢+$64.38

Up$9.4712.1¢-$9.47

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$305.54

Value

$339.68

PnL

+$35.14

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

Both legs:

Up$73.9452.2¢-$75.55

Down$228.9967.4¢+$110.69

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$250.73

Value

$299.61

PnL

+$48.89

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

Both legs:

Up$73.247.8¢-$73.2

Down$177.5259.3¢+$122.09

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$98.06

Value

—

PnL

-$98.06

Record

60%

9446-6238 (15684)

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$125.21

Value

—

PnL

-$125.21

Record

70%

47133-19790 (66923)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100

Invested

$93.32

Value

—

PnL

-$93.32

Record

62%

16976-10525 (27501)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$125.1

Value

$68.99

PnL

-$55.06

Record

69%

69291-31631 (100922)

Both legs:

Down$44.1564¢+$24.84

Up$78.0358.4¢-$79.9

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$72.41

Value

—

PnL

-$72.41

Record

56%

11631-9183 (20814)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$65.63

Value

$52.48

PnL

-$13.15

Record

76%

24117-7611 (31728)

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$68.71

Value

—

PnL

-$68.71

Record

56%

18773-14518 (33291)

almachCTR<$100

Invested

$36.62

Value

—

PnL

-$36.62

Record

55%

38143-31228 (69371)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$34.62

Value

—

PnL

-$34.62

Record

60%

15115-9973 (25088)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$33.42

Value

—

PnL

-$33.42

Record

70%

28260-12370 (40630)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 28 top traders (39%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4b917847...f20631

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792950300

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$62.45

wzbbb

Down — $989.73

+$133.28

CrouchPredictions

Down — $693.65

-$9.86

hoodquant

Down — $611.92

+$6.12

GoodFallen

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$35.96

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.54

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

wowitsamazing

Up — $0

machinelearned

Up — $0

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded