Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$640.48

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,364

Combined PnL+$780.99

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$140.5

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.08	79% 28217-7375 (35592)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	79% 54764-14368 (69132)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.06	69% 12861-5779 (18640)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 60.9¢	$490.52	$707.2	+$216.69	56% 13515-10540 (24055)
└ Down leg	Downavg 6¢	$59.66	—	-$59.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.9¢	$430.86	$707.2	+$276.35
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 73.8¢	$431.59	$490.53	+$58.94	56% 7661-6028 (13689)
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.9¢	$69.75	—	-$69.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.8¢	$361.84	$490.53	+$128.69
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 56.8¢	$373.31	$451.72	+$78.42	56% 14589-11312 (25901)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.8¢	$256.58	$451.72	+$195.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.7¢	$116.73	—	-$116.73
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 67.2¢	$432.1	$555.5	+$123.4	56% 6895-5360 (12255)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$269.24	$201.64	-$67.6	65% 15002-8029 (23031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.5¢	$164.06	—	-$164.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$105.18	$201.64	+$96.46
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 70.1¢	$285.45	$366.77	+$81.33	58% 12869-9199 (22068)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 66.8¢	$220.38	$215	-$5.38	57% 11585-8911 (20496)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.8¢	$143.7	$215	+$71.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.9¢	$76.68	—	-$76.68
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$151.39	$194.83	+$43.44	49% 4604-4721 (9325)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$119.68	$194.83	+$75.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.1¢	$31.71	—	-$31.71
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$147	$154.08	+$7.08	55% 14678-11791 (26469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$77.61	$154.08	+$76.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 56¢	$69.39	—	-$69.39
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$117.21	$105.25	-$11.96	57% 10613-8007 (18620)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$59.79	—	-$59.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$57.42	$105.25	+$47.83
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 84.5¢	$126.1	$113.19	-$10.61	55% 6711-5512 (12223)
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.9¢	$26.24	—	-$26.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.5¢	$95.64	$113.19	+$15.63
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$123.86	$156.02	+$32.16	61% 11502-7498 (19000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$100.63	$156.02	+$55.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.2¢	$23.23	—	-$23.23
pspspsps5	Upavg 82.4¢	$136.71	$165.81	+$29.1	59% 15217-10664 (25881)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 74.3¢	$122.56	$164.89	+$42.33	60% 15115-9973 (25088)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$70.16	—	-$70.16	70% 28260-12370 (40630)
0X 0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$38.88	—	-$38.88	52% 811-742 (1553)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Upavg 67¢	$61.91	$60	-$1.91	56% 11631-9183 (20814)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67¢	$40.2	$60	+$19.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.2¢	$21.71	—	-$21.71
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72.6¢	$78.42	$108	+$29.58	83% 28210-5788 (33998)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 56¢	$45.8	$80	+$34.2	60% 9446-6238 (15684)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 64.3¢	$46.8	$50	+$3.2	56% 18773-14518 (33291)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$44.93	$68.87	+$23.94	62% 16976-10525 (27501)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$24.99	$53.49	+$28.5	67% 13565-6732 (20297)

0x50f7

Invested

$2,977.93

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.08

Record

79%

28217-7375 (35592)

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

79%

54764-14368 (69132)

THG.

Invested

$2,579.94

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.06

Record

69%

12861-5779 (18640)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$490.52

Value

$707.2

PnL

+$216.69

Record

56%

13515-10540 (24055)

Both legs:

Down$59.666¢-$59.66

Up$430.8660.9¢+$276.35

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$431.59

Value

$490.53

PnL

+$58.94

Record

56%

7661-6028 (13689)

Both legs:

Down$69.756.9¢-$69.75

Up$361.8473.8¢+$128.69

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$373.31

Value

$451.72

PnL

+$78.42

Record

56%

14589-11312 (25901)

Both legs:

Up$256.5856.8¢+$195.15

Down$116.7332.7¢-$116.73

wzbbb

Invested

$432.1

Value

$555.5

PnL

+$123.4

Record

56%

6895-5360 (12255)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$269.24

Value

$201.64

PnL

-$67.6

Record

65%

15002-8029 (23031)

Both legs:

Down$164.0641.5¢-$164.06

Up$105.1852.2¢+$96.46

GoodFallen

Invested

$285.45

Value

$366.77

PnL

+$81.33

Record

58%

12869-9199 (22068)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$220.38

Value

$215

PnL

-$5.38

Record

57%

11585-8911 (20496)

Both legs:

Up$143.766.8¢+$71.3

Down$76.6847.9¢-$76.68

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$151.39

Value

$194.83

PnL

+$43.44

Record

49%

4604-4721 (9325)

Both legs:

Up$119.6861.4¢+$75.15

Down$31.7118.1¢-$31.71

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$147

Value

$154.08

PnL

+$7.08

Record

55%

14678-11791 (26469)

Both legs:

Invested

$117.21

Value

$105.25

PnL

-$11.96

Record

57%

10613-8007 (18620)

Both legs:

Down$59.7944.1¢-$59.79

Up$57.4254.6¢+$47.83

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$126.1

Value

$113.19

PnL

-$10.61

Record

55%

6711-5512 (12223)

Both legs:

Down$26.2420.9¢-$26.24

Up$95.6484.5¢+$15.63

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$123.86

Value

$156.02

PnL

+$32.16

Record

61%

11502-7498 (19000)

Both legs:

Up$100.6364.5¢+$55.39

Down$23.2351.2¢-$23.23

pspspsps5

Invested

$136.71

Value

$165.81

PnL

+$29.1

Record

59%

15217-10664 (25881)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$122.56

Value

$164.89

PnL

+$42.33

Record

60%

15115-9973 (25088)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$70.16

Value

—

PnL

-$70.16

Record

70%

28260-12370 (40630)

0x9783F45CE35F794BE38cA47dD0816A5C241383B9-1766113722324CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$38.88

Value

—

PnL

-$38.88

Record

52%

811-742 (1553)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Invested

$61.91

Value

$60

PnL

-$1.91

Record

56%

11631-9183 (20814)

Both legs:

Up$40.267¢+$19.8

Down$21.7142.2¢-$21.71

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$78.42

Value

$108

PnL

+$29.58

Record

83%

28210-5788 (33998)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$45.8

Value

$80

PnL

+$34.2

Record

60%

9446-6238 (15684)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$46.8

Value

$50

PnL

+$3.2

Record

56%

18773-14518 (33291)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Invested

$44.93

Value

$68.87

PnL

+$23.94

Record

62%

16976-10525 (27501)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$24.99

Value

$53.49

PnL

+$28.5

Record

67%

13565-6732 (20297)

Smart Money Signal

20 of 26 top traders (77%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x833efb4b...321727

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792950000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $3.0K

+$30.08

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

+$30.01

THG.

Up — $2.6K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$78.42

wzbbb

Up — $555.5

+$123.4

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$67.6

GoodFallen

Up — $366.77

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded