Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$402.9

Smart Money Signal

22 of 32 top traders (69%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up22 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,314

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,393

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.22	93% 20350-1637 (21987)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$868.71	$678.76	-$189.95	56% 14581-11306 (25887)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$318.7	$678.76	+$360.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$550.01	—	-$550.01
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 49.9¢	$576.99	$666.88	+$89.89	58% 12862-9192 (22054)
NIULAI4	Upavg 74.7¢	$479.38	$642.14	+$162.75	78% 8959-2547 (11506)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 50.3¢	$428.19	$522.19	+$94	57% 11577-8907 (20484)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 47.4¢	$404.99	$518.66	+$113.67	55% 6703-5506 (12209)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 49.1¢	$271.84	$553.32	+$281.48	71% 20598-8407 (29005)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 29.7¢	$246.2	$437.53	+$191.33	56% 13507-10529 (24036)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 52.5¢	$594.49	—	-$594.49	56% 6887-5350 (12237)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 57.6¢	$226.87	$320.76	+$93.89	65% 14995-8022 (23017)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 40.4¢	$256.69	$282.39	+$25.7	49% 4597-4715 (9312)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.7¢	$86.81	$282.39	+$195.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$169.88	—	-$169.88
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 60.5¢	$292.32	$259.15	-$29.67	61% 11491-7495 (18986)
machinelearned	Upavg 50.8¢	$166.07	$253.9	+$87.83	56% 7653-6023 (13676)
SI sir-upalotCTR	Downavg 48.4¢	$266.45	—	-$266.45	55% 14668-11789 (26457)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 42.9¢	$143.63	$239.98	+$96.35	57% 10603-8003 (18606)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 38.4¢	$98.88	$173.94	+$75.06	84% 60134-11869 (72003)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Downavg 67¢	$117.11	—	-$117.11	62% 16970-10517 (27487)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$168.58	$101.99	-$66.59	56% 11622-9176 (20798)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$52.99	$101.99	+$49
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$115.59	—	-$115.59
AL almach	Upavg 50¢	$62	$124	+$62	55% 37966-30976 (68942)
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 66.1¢	$121.35	$89.25	-$32.1	56% 18760-14510 (33270)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$35.54	$89.25	+$53.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.1¢	$85.8	—	-$85.8
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$69.03	—	-$69.03	58% 11051-8103 (19154)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 31.5¢	$41.68	—	-$41.68	58% 16208-11821 (28029)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 21.9¢	$17.41	$77.5	+$60.09	59% 15210-10639 (25849)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Downavg 36.1¢	$68.4	$40.91	-$27.49	60% 9436-6232 (15668)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$24.8	$40.91	+$16.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$43.6	—	-$43.6
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$57.91	—	-$57.91	76% 24072-7599 (31671)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,099.89

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.22

Record

93%

20350-1637 (21987)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$868.71

Value

$678.76

PnL

-$189.95

Record

56%

14581-11306 (25887)

Both legs:

Up$318.747¢+$360.06

Down$550.0150.8¢-$550.01

GoodFallen

Invested

$576.99

Value

$666.88

PnL

+$89.89

Record

58%

12862-9192 (22054)

NIULAI4

Invested

$479.38

Value

$642.14

PnL

+$162.75

Record

78%

8959-2547 (11506)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$428.19

Value

$522.19

PnL

+$94

Record

57%

11577-8907 (20484)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$404.99

Value

$518.66

PnL

+$113.67

Record

55%

6703-5506 (12209)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$271.84

Value

$553.32

PnL

+$281.48

Record

71%

20598-8407 (29005)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$246.2

Value

$437.53

PnL

+$191.33

Record

56%

13507-10529 (24036)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$594.49

Value

—

PnL

-$594.49

Record

56%

6887-5350 (12237)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$226.87

Value

$320.76

PnL

+$93.89

Record

65%

14995-8022 (23017)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$256.69

Value

$282.39

PnL

+$25.7

Record

49%

4597-4715 (9312)

Both legs:

Up$86.8130.7¢+$195.58

Down$169.8840.4¢-$169.88

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$292.32

Value

$259.15

PnL

-$29.67

Record

61%

11491-7495 (18986)

machinelearned

Invested

$166.07

Value

$253.9

PnL

+$87.83

Record

56%

7653-6023 (13676)

sir-upalotCTR

Down

Invested

$266.45

Value

—

PnL

-$266.45

Record

55%

14668-11789 (26457)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$143.63

Value

$239.98

PnL

+$96.35

Record

57%

10603-8003 (18606)

antsaslyku

Invested

$98.88

Value

$173.94

PnL

+$75.06

Record

84%

60134-11869 (72003)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Down

Invested

$117.11

Value

—

PnL

-$117.11

Record

62%

16970-10517 (27487)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$168.58

Value

$101.99

PnL

-$66.59

Record

56%

11622-9176 (20798)

Both legs:

Up$52.9952¢+$49

Down$115.5966.5¢-$115.59

almach

Invested

$62

Value

$124

PnL

+$62

Record

55%

37966-30976 (68942)

spartacrayARB<$100

Down

Invested

$121.35

Value

$89.25

PnL

-$32.1

Record

56%

18760-14510 (33270)

Both legs:

Up$35.5439.8¢+$53.7

Down$85.866.1¢-$85.8

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$69.03

Value

—

PnL

-$69.03

Record

58%

11051-8103 (19154)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$41.68

Value

—

PnL

-$41.68

Record

58%

16208-11821 (28029)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$17.41

Value

$77.5

PnL

+$60.09

Record

59%

15210-10639 (25849)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$68.4

Value

$40.91

PnL

-$27.49

Record

60%

9436-6232 (15668)

Both legs:

Invested

$57.91

Value

—

PnL

-$57.91

Record

76%

24072-7599 (31671)

Smart Money Signal

22 of 32 top traders (69%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x22dc6b18...131a90

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792949700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$13.22

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$189.95

GoodFallen

Up — $666.88

+$89.89

NIULAI4

Up — $642.14

+$162.75

FairValueMachine

Up — $522.19

+$94

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $518.66

+$113.67

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $553.32

+$281.48

CrouchPredictions

Up — $437.53

+$191.33

wzbbb

CTR

Down — $0

-$594.49

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Up — $320.76

+$93.89

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