Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$354.54

Smart Money Signal

28 of 37 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up28 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares10,841

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,958

Combined PnL-$758.04

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$30.01	79% 54267-14082 (68349)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.9¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$227.87	56% 13507-10529 (24036)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$174.86	56% 14581-11306 (25887)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.3¢	$656.33	$1.1K	+$470.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.5¢	$645.23	—	-$645.23
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.63	93% 20350-1637 (21987)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 70.5¢	$517.64	$578.46	+$60.82	61% 11491-7495 (18986)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 19.4¢	$449.98	$282.63	-$167.35	56% 6887-5350 (12237)
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.4¢	$274.99	—	-$274.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.9¢	$175	$282.63	+$107.63
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 67.4¢	$507.13	$466.85	-$40.28	58% 12862-9192 (22054)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.4¢	$314.64	$466.85	+$152.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.3¢	$192.49	—	-$192.49
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 20.4¢	$514.14	—	-$514.14	56% 7653-6023 (13676)
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 43.6¢	$316.07	$546.41	+$230.34	57% 32436-24893 (57329)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 73.8¢	$473.45	$464.14	-$7.85	55% 6703-5506 (12209)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 60.2¢	$377.74	$462.48	+$84.74	49% 4597-4715 (9312)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 44.9¢	$333.4	$378	+$44.61	83% 28182-5775 (33957)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 59.5¢	$261.03	$377.03	+$116	57% 11577-8907 (20484)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 75.6¢	$331.5	$314.44	-$17.06	65% 14995-8022 (23017)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.6¢	$237.78	$314.44	+$76.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.7¢	$93.73	—	-$93.73
0X 0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529ARB<$100	Upavg 85.9¢	$443.62	$298.65	-$144.97	54% 826-706 (1532)
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.9¢	$256.57	$298.65	+$42.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.1¢	$187.05	—	-$187.05
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 39¢	$168	$299.99	+$132	51% 13000-12381 (25381)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39¢	$117	$299.99	+$183
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$51	—	-$51
0X 0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176	Upavg 76.4¢	$400.11	$284.32	-$115.79	54% 5719-4878 (10597)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 45¢	$155.06	$300.29	+$145.23	65% 13609-7178 (20787)
AR arbfinder2026ARB<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$359.63	$263.08	-$96.55	55% 4810-3880 (8690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.3¢	$216.6	$263.08	+$46.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.9¢	$143.03	—	-$143.03
AS asdaasdaARB<$100	Upavg 78.9¢	$267.75	$200	-$67.75	55% 914-741 (1655)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.9¢	$157.76	$200	+$42.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$109.99	—	-$109.99
0X 0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05ARB<$100	Upavg 84.1¢	$277.79	$199.99	-$77.8	54% 3297-2835 (6132)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.1¢	$168.23	$199.99	+$31.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$109.56	—	-$109.56
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 37.4¢	$100.41	$205.27	+$104.86	60% 15104-9944 (25048)
pspspsps5	Upavg 38¢	$98.8	$216.81	+$118	59% 15210-10639 (25849)
NIULAI4	Upavg 87.7¢	$188.17	$212.99	+$24.82	78% 8959-2547 (11506)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$218.42	$139.24	-$79.18	55% 14668-11789 (26457)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.3¢	$88.15	$139.24	+$51.08
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.1¢	$130.26	—	-$130.26

BoneOhio

Invested

$2,970.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$30.01

Record

79%

54267-14082 (68349)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$1,486.07

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$227.87

Record

56%

13507-10529 (24036)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,301.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$174.86

Record

56%

14581-11306 (25887)

Both legs:

Up$656.3358.3¢+$470.37

Down$645.2339.5¢-$645.23

hoodquant

Invested

$1,151.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.63

Record

93%

20350-1637 (21987)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$517.64

Value

$578.46

PnL

+$60.82

Record

61%

11491-7495 (18986)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$449.98

Value

$282.63

PnL

-$167.35

Record

56%

6887-5350 (12237)

Both legs:

Down$274.9919.4¢-$274.99

Up$17561.9¢+$107.63

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$507.13

Value

$466.85

PnL

-$40.28

Record

58%

12862-9192 (22054)

Both legs:

Up$314.6467.4¢+$152.21

Down$192.4933.3¢-$192.49

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$514.14

Value

—

PnL

-$514.14

Record

56%

7653-6023 (13676)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$316.07

Value

$546.41

PnL

+$230.34

Record

57%

32436-24893 (57329)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$473.45

Value

$464.14

PnL

-$7.85

Record

55%

6703-5506 (12209)

ply-pm0

Invested

$377.74

Value

$462.48

PnL

+$84.74

Record

49%

4597-4715 (9312)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$333.4

Value

$378

PnL

+$44.61

Record

83%

28182-5775 (33957)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$261.03

Value

$377.03

PnL

+$116

Record

57%

11577-8907 (20484)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$331.5

Value

$314.44

PnL

-$17.06

Record

65%

14995-8022 (23017)

Both legs:

Up$237.7875.6¢+$76.67

Down$93.7327.7¢-$93.73

0xC87836BEf73740Dd2206c05628E59faA529ARB<$100

Invested

$443.62

Value

$298.65

PnL

-$144.97

Record

54%

826-706 (1532)

Both legs:

Up$256.5785.9¢+$42.08

Down$187.0558.1¢-$187.05

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$168

Value

$299.99

PnL

+$132

Record

51%

13000-12381 (25381)

Both legs:

Up$11739¢+$183

Down$5117¢-$51

0xe3eeb127d5763a6e4ad597f773f9d9c94d5176

Invested

$400.11

Value

$284.32

PnL

-$115.79

Record

54%

5719-4878 (10597)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$155.06

Value

$300.29

PnL

+$145.23

Record

65%

13609-7178 (20787)

arbfinder2026ARB<$100

Invested

$359.63

Value

$263.08

PnL

-$96.55

Record

55%

4810-3880 (8690)

Both legs:

Up$216.682.3¢+$46.48

Down$143.0355.9¢-$143.03

asdaasdaARB<$100

Invested

$267.75

Value

$200

PnL

-$67.75

Record

55%

914-741 (1655)

Both legs:

Up$157.7678.9¢+$42.24

Down$109.9955¢-$109.99

0xe41faaaaea1b6eae4546eca7713066dc05ARB<$100

Invested

$277.79

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$77.8

Record

54%

3297-2835 (6132)

Both legs:

Up$168.2384.1¢+$31.76

Down$109.5654.8¢-$109.56

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$100.41

Value

$205.27

PnL

+$104.86

Record

60%

15104-9944 (25048)

pspspsps5

Invested

$98.8

Value

$216.81

PnL

+$118

Record

59%

15210-10639 (25849)

NIULAI4

Invested

$188.17

Value

$212.99

PnL

+$24.82

Record

78%

8959-2547 (11506)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.42

Value

$139.24

PnL

-$79.18

Record

55%

14668-11789 (26457)

Both legs:

Up$88.1563.3¢+$51.08

Down$130.2643.1¢-$130.26

Smart Money Signal

28 of 37 top traders (76%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xacbcd473...5f0b2b

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792949400

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $3.0K

+$30.01

CrouchPredictions

Up — $1.7K

+$227.87

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$174.86

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$11.63

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $578.46

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $546.41

+$230.34

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $464.14

-$7.85

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