Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 51% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
43
Down 51%
2 arb excluded
$25.8K
$-2.5K
Smart Money Signal
22 of 43 top traders (51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.9K | $8.0K | +$79.81 | 79% 28202-7369 (35571) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30.01 | 79% 54267-14082 (68349) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.3¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$1.05 | 56% 13507-10529 (24036) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$26.03 | 75% 12348-4055 (16403) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$22.85 | 93% 20350-1637 (21987) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 80.7¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 56% 6887-5350 (12237) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 66.3¢ | $963.94 | $1.1K | +$159.28 | 51% 13000-12381 (25381) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 53¢ | $914.96 | $931.82 | +$16.85 | 56% 14581-11306 (25887) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $653.35 | $778.72 | +$125.38 | 49% 4597-4715 (9312) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 98¢ | $787.81 | $735 | -$52.81 | 58% 16208-11821 (28029) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $376.77 | $622.43 | +$245.66 | 71% 20598-8407 (29005) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $383.75 | $424.6 | +$40.84 | 57% 10603-8003 (18606) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 56.5¢ | $436.22 | $404.62 | -$31.59 | 58% 12862-9192 (22054) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57.9¢ | $319.19 | $365.55 | +$46.36 | 57% 11577-8907 (20484) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 35.6¢ | $192.14 | $369.1 | +$180.21 | 61% 11491-7495 (18986) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR | Upavg 54¢ | $424.89 | — | -$424.89 | 55% 6703-5506 (12209) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 73¢ | $607.05 | — | -$607.05 | 83% 28182-5775 (33957) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 66.2¢ | $266.05 | $310.74 | +$44.69 | 84% 60134-11869 (72003) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 43.7¢ | $192.62 | $269.38 | +$76.77 | 65% 14995-8022 (23017) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 74.1¢ | $493.47 | — | -$493.47 | 56% 7653-6023 (13676) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR | Upavg 75.9¢ | $109.17 | — | -$109.17 | 60% 15104-9944 (25048) |
AS asdaefefCTR | Upavg 61.9¢ | $107.07 | — | -$107.07 | 76% 24072-7599 (31671) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 49.9¢ | $70.66 | $141.69 | +$71.04 | 57% 32436-24893 (57329) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 41.5¢ | $85.85 | — | -$85.85 | 55% 37966-30976 (68942) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $99.12 | — | -$99.12 | 62% 16970-10517 (27487) |
Invested
$7,901.38
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$79.81
Record
79%
28202-7369 (35571)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970.89
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30.01
Record
79%
54267-14082 (68349)
Invested
$2,603.55
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$1.05
Record
56%
13507-10529 (24036)
Invested
$2,576.97
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$26.03
Record
75%
12348-4055 (16403)
Invested
$2,262.15
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$22.85
Record
93%
20350-1637 (21987)
Invested
$1,179.21
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
56%
6887-5350 (12237)
Invested
$963.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$159.28
Record
51%
13000-12381 (25381)
Invested
$914.96
Value
$931.82
PnL
+$16.85
Record
56%
14581-11306 (25887)
Invested
$653.35
Value
$778.72
PnL
+$125.38
Record
49%
4597-4715 (9312)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$787.81
Value
$735
PnL
-$52.81
Record
58%
16208-11821 (28029)
Invested
$376.77
Value
$622.43
PnL
+$245.66
Record
71%
20598-8407 (29005)
Invested
$383.75
Value
$424.6
PnL
+$40.84
Record
57%
10603-8003 (18606)
Invested
$436.22
Value
$404.62
PnL
-$31.59
Record
58%
12862-9192 (22054)
FairValueMachineInvested
$319.19
Value
$365.55
PnL
+$46.36
Record
57%
11577-8907 (20484)
Invested
$192.14
Value
$369.1
PnL
+$180.21
Record
61%
11491-7495 (18986)
Invested
$424.89
Value
—
PnL
-$424.89
Record
55%
6703-5506 (12209)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$607.05
Value
—
PnL
-$607.05
Record
83%
28182-5775 (33957)
Invested
$266.05
Value
$310.74
PnL
+$44.69
Record
84%
60134-11869 (72003)
Invested
$192.62
Value
$269.38
PnL
+$76.77
Record
65%
14995-8022 (23017)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$493.47
Value
—
PnL
-$493.47
Record
56%
7653-6023 (13676)
OhioRiskManagementCTRInvested
$109.17
Value
—
PnL
-$109.17
Record
60%
15104-9944 (25048)
Invested
$107.07
Value
—
PnL
-$107.07
Record
76%
24072-7599 (31671)
Invested
$70.66
Value
$141.69
PnL
+$71.04
Record
57%
32436-24893 (57329)
Invested
$85.85
Value
—
PnL
-$85.85
Record
55%
37966-30976 (68942)
Invested
$99.12
Value
—
PnL
-$99.12
Record
62%
16970-10517 (27487)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $8.0K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $2.6K
THG.
Down — $2.6K
hoodquant
Down — $2.3K
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
Down — $1.1K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $931.82
ply-pm0
Down — $778.72
MayorMamdani
Down — $735