Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
39
Down 76%
2 arb excluded
$5.3K
-$160.5
Smart Money Signal
29 of 39 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.7¢ | $776.96 | $780.79 | +$3.83 | 56% 13491-10521 (24012) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.8¢ | $514.15 | $582.2 | +$68.05 | 56% 14568-11299 (25867) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 83.2¢ | $536.7 | $460.48 | -$76.21 | 56% 6868-5341 (12209) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 89.7¢ | $394.37 | $439.7 | +$45.33 | 56% 7639-6014 (13653) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 74.5¢ | $372.77 | $388.22 | +$15.46 | 83% 28149-5754 (33903) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 44.9¢ | $326.91 | — | -$326.91 | 71% 20566-8388 (28954) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 75¢ | $183.2 | $199.99 | +$16.79 | 51% 12985-12359 (25344) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $203.79 | $200 | -$3.79 | 57% 11566-8896 (20462) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.5¢ | $151 | $200 | +$49 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.3¢ | $52.79 | — | -$52.79 | |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 58.9¢ | $151.02 | $232.36 | +$81.34 | 65% 14981-8008 (22989) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 38.8¢ | $240.78 | — | -$240.78 | 58% 12852-9182 (22034) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507 | Downavg 65¢ | $195 | $300 | +$105 | 52% 14375-13129 (27504) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 68.9¢ | $115.41 | $163.2 | +$47.8 | 61% 11476-7486 (18962) |
TH thesidehustle | Downavg 80.2¢ | $142.91 | $149.48 | +$6.57 | 54% 9487-8073 (17560) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $127.79 | $118.36 | -$9.43 | 49% 4585-4703 (9288) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR | Upavg 31.6¢ | $133.96 | — | -$133.96 | 57% 10590-7987 (18577) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 72.5¢ | $128.13 | $176.63 | +$48.5 | 58% 11031-8085 (19116) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $85.55 | $95.06 | +$9.51 | 57% 32402-24870 (57272) |
PB PBot-6 | Downavg 51.6¢ | $86.03 | $166.75 | +$80.72 | 70% 28196-12341 (40537) |
BO bosona<$100 | Downavg 83.8¢ | $79.42 | $84.62 | +$5.2 | 56% 39158-30351 (69509) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $59.8 | $77.12 | +$17.32 | 56% 14905-11884 (26789) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $45.88 | $62 | +$16.12 | 56% 41132-32523 (73655) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $66.71 | $44 | -$22.71 | 55% 6690-5495 (12185) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 83¢ | $36.52 | $44 | +$7.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $30.19 | — | -$30.19 | |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 79¢ | $79.31 | $100.39 | +$21.08 | 59% 14585-10291 (24876) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $57.55 | $87.74 | +$30.19 | 76% 26312-8108 (34420) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 93.7¢ | $45.9 | $48.99 | +$3.09 | 58% 16165-11779 (27944) |
Invested
$776.96
Value
$780.79
PnL
+$3.83
Record
56%
13491-10521 (24012)
Invested
$514.15
Value
$582.2
PnL
+$68.05
Record
56%
14568-11299 (25867)
Invested
$536.7
Value
$460.48
PnL
-$76.21
Record
56%
6868-5341 (12209)
machinelearnedInvested
$394.37
Value
$439.7
PnL
+$45.33
Record
56%
7639-6014 (13653)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$372.77
Value
$388.22
PnL
+$15.46
Record
83%
28149-5754 (33903)
Invested
$326.91
Value
—
PnL
-$326.91
Record
71%
20566-8388 (28954)
Invested
$183.2
Value
$199.99
PnL
+$16.79
Record
51%
12985-12359 (25344)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$203.79
Value
$200
PnL
-$3.79
Record
57%
11566-8896 (20462)
Both legs:
Invested
$151.02
Value
$232.36
PnL
+$81.34
Record
65%
14981-8008 (22989)
Invested
$240.78
Value
—
PnL
-$240.78
Record
58%
12852-9182 (22034)
Invested
$195
Value
$300
PnL
+$105
Record
52%
14375-13129 (27504)
Invested
$115.41
Value
$163.2
PnL
+$47.8
Record
61%
11476-7486 (18962)
Invested
$142.91
Value
$149.48
PnL
+$6.57
Record
54%
9487-8073 (17560)
Invested
$127.79
Value
$118.36
PnL
-$9.43
Record
49%
4585-4703 (9288)
Invested
$133.96
Value
—
PnL
-$133.96
Record
57%
10590-7987 (18577)
Invested
$128.13
Value
$176.63
PnL
+$48.5
Record
58%
11031-8085 (19116)
Invested
$85.55
Value
$95.06
PnL
+$9.51
Record
57%
32402-24870 (57272)
Invested
$86.03
Value
$166.75
PnL
+$80.72
Record
70%
28196-12341 (40537)
Invested
$79.42
Value
$84.62
PnL
+$5.2
Record
56%
39158-30351 (69509)
Invested
$59.8
Value
$77.12
PnL
+$17.32
Record
56%
14905-11884 (26789)
Invested
$45.88
Value
$62
PnL
+$16.12
Record
56%
41132-32523 (73655)
Invested
$66.71
Value
$44
PnL
-$22.71
Record
55%
6690-5495 (12185)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$79.31
Value
$100.39
PnL
+$21.08
Record
59%
14585-10291 (24876)
ohioism<$100Invested
$57.55
Value
$87.74
PnL
+$30.19
Record
76%
26312-8108 (34420)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$45.9
Value
$48.99
PnL
+$3.09
Record
58%
16165-11779 (27944)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
CrouchPredictions
Down — $780.79
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $582.2
wzbbb
Down — $460.48
machinelearned
Down — $439.7
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $388.22
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
gansinimen
Down — $199.99
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894
Down — $232.36
GoodFallen
CTRUp — $0