Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 61%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$878.99

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 32 top traders (59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,724

Combined PnL+$677.36

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,496

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 50.9¢	$712.25	$893.14	+$180.89	56% 13478-10508 (23986)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$726.59	$787.55	+$60.96	56% 14558-11290 (25848)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$406.36	—	-$406.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$320.24	$787.55	+$467.31
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$583.09	$589	+$5.91	93% 20288-1627 (21915)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 46.8¢	$767.8	—	-$767.8	56% 6853-5332 (12185)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 27.5¢	$442.18	—	-$223.63	83% 27963-5718 (33681)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 37.8¢	$462.38	$686.69	+$224.31	58% 12845-9170 (22015)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$202.81	—	-$202.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.8¢	$259.57	$686.69	+$427.12
MayorMamdani	Downavg 85.7¢	$347.33	$379.51	+$32.19	58% 16129-11743 (27872)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$262.65	$265.3	+$2.65	80% 53864-13832 (67696)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$237.7	$432.39	+$194.69	57% 11559-8884 (20443)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.2¢	$186.87	$432.39	+$245.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$50.83	—	-$50.83
machinelearned	Downavg 45.1¢	$91.07	$185.56	+$94.49	56% 7630-6002 (13632)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 49.9¢	$155.59	$178.86	+$23.27	49% 4584-4697 (9281)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 59.7¢	$154.35	$188.89	+$36.79	61% 11466-7473 (18939)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$163.6	$208.11	+$44.51	57% 10536-7912 (18448)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$70.4	—	-$70.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$93.21	$208.11	+$114.9
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 52.5¢	$110.43	$148.56	+$38.13	83% 59673-11815 (71488)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$141.65	$168.96	+$27.31	57% 32394-24860 (57254)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$71.25	—	-$71.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$70.4	$168.96	+$98.56
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Upavg 58.6¢	$175.59	—	-$175.59	55% 6678-5484 (12162)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$152	$131	-$21	71% 20504-8371 (28875)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 56.2¢	$122.08	$125.51	+$3.42	54% 9455-8054 (17509)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$77.84	—	-$77.84	55% 14644-11771 (26415)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Upavg 53.6¢	$112.07	—	-$112.07	62% 16943-10499 (27442)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 61.2¢	$78.54	$81.56	+$3.03	65% 14972-7993 (22965)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.2¢	$40.41	—	-$40.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.8¢	$38.13	$81.56	+$43.43
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$82.88	—	-$82.88	56% 18716-14481 (33197)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 48.6¢	$54.42	—	-$54.42	59% 19577-13458 (33035)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 38.5¢	$47.76	$124	+$76.24	70% 46473-19740 (66213)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100	Upavg 54.1¢	$47.09	—	-$47.09	56% 11593-9158 (20751)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$712.25

Value

$893.14

PnL

+$180.89

Record

56%

13478-10508 (23986)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$726.59

Value

$787.55

PnL

+$60.96

Record

56%

14558-11290 (25848)

Both legs:

Up$406.3657.3¢-$406.36

Down$320.2440.7¢+$467.31

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$583.09

Value

$589

PnL

+$5.91

Record

93%

20288-1627 (21915)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$767.8

Value

—

PnL

-$767.8

Record

56%

6853-5332 (12185)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$442.18

Value

—

PnL

-$223.63

Record

83%

27963-5718 (33681)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$462.38

Value

$686.69

PnL

+$224.31

Record

58%

12845-9170 (22015)

Both legs:

Up$202.8158.8¢-$202.81

Down$259.5737.8¢+$427.12

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$347.33

Value

$379.51

PnL

+$32.19

Record

58%

16129-11743 (27872)

BoneOhio

Down

Invested

$262.65

Value

$265.3

PnL

+$2.65

Record

80%

53864-13832 (67696)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$237.7

Value

$432.39

PnL

+$194.69

Record

57%

11559-8884 (20443)

Both legs:

Down$186.8743.2¢+$245.52

Up$50.8349.4¢-$50.83

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$91.07

Value

$185.56

PnL

+$94.49

Record

56%

7630-6002 (13632)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$155.59

Value

$178.86

PnL

+$23.27

Record

49%

4584-4697 (9281)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$154.35

Value

$188.89

PnL

+$36.79

Record

61%

11466-7473 (18939)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$163.6

Value

$208.11

PnL

+$44.51

Record

57%

10536-7912 (18448)

Both legs:

Up$70.450.3¢-$70.4

Down$93.2144.8¢+$114.9

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$110.43

Value

$148.56

PnL

+$38.13

Record

83%

59673-11815 (71488)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$141.65

Value

$168.96

PnL

+$27.31

Record

57%

32394-24860 (57254)

Both legs:

Up$71.2561¢-$71.25

Down$70.441.7¢+$98.56

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Invested

$175.59

Value

—

PnL

-$175.59

Record

55%

6678-5484 (12162)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$152

Value

$131

PnL

-$21

Record

71%

20504-8371 (28875)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$122.08

Value

$125.51

PnL

+$3.42

Record

54%

9455-8054 (17509)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$77.84

Value

—

PnL

-$77.84

Record

55%

14644-11771 (26415)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Invested

$112.07

Value

—

PnL

-$112.07

Record

62%

16943-10499 (27442)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$78.54

Value

$81.56

PnL

+$3.03

Record

65%

14972-7993 (22965)

Both legs:

Up$40.4161.2¢-$40.41

Down$38.1346.8¢+$43.43

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$82.88

Value

—

PnL

-$82.88

Record

56%

18716-14481 (33197)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$54.42

Value

—

PnL

-$54.42

Record

59%

19577-13458 (33035)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$47.76

Value

$124

PnL

+$76.24

Record

70%

46473-19740 (66213)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cCTR<$100

Invested

$47.09

Value

—

PnL

-$47.09

Record

56%

11593-9158 (20751)

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 32 top traders (59%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x59b3a1b4...4f434f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792935000

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $893.14

+$180.89

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$60.96

hoodquant

Down — $589

wzbbb

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

MayorMamdani

Down — $379.51

+$32.19

BoneOhio

Down — $265.3

+$2.65

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$194.69

machinelearned

Down — $185.56

+$94.49

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