Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 94% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 97%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$496.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 34 top traders (94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down32 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares5,873

Combined PnL+$505.22

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares281

Combined PnL-$8.42

Down — 94%Up — 6%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 87.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$22.95	56% 13478-10508 (23986)
machinelearned	Downavg 90.4¢	$584.66	$646.5	+$61.84	56% 7630-6002 (13632)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$516.1	$521.31	+$5.21	75% 12222-4046 (16268)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 86.1¢	$372.28	$399.41	+$27.13	56% 6853-5332 (12185)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 88.6¢	$344.08	$388.26	+$44.18	57% 32394-24860 (57254)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.4¢	$344.02	$353.33	+$9.31	58% 16129-11743 (27872)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 74.2¢	$208.65	$245.62	+$36.97	56% 14558-11290 (25848)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 74.6¢	$171.6	$230	+$58.4	57% 11559-8884 (20443)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 89.7¢	$165	$167.04	+$2.04	54% 9455-8054 (17509)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 77.6¢	$120.4	$142.07	+$21.68	55% 6678-5484 (12162)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 96.4¢	$117.88	$105	-$12.88	83% 27963-5718 (33681)
└ Down leg	Downavg 96.4¢	$101.25	$105	+$3.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 4¢	$16.63	—	-$16.63
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 83.5¢	$131.82	$143.21	+$11.38	61% 11466-7473 (18939)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 81.3¢	$122.36	$143.75	+$21.39	55% 14644-11771 (26415)
OhioRiskManagement	Downavg 88.6¢	$124.03	$133.33	+$9.3	60% 15015-9882 (24897)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 86.4¢	$93.12	$88	-$5.12	49% 4584-4697 (9281)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$62.04	$91	+$28.96	65% 14972-7993 (22965)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 93.1¢	$42.71	$43.03	+$0.32	59% 15172-10589 (25761)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93.1¢	$40.08	$43.03	+$2.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$2.63	—	-$2.63
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$55	$60	+$5	60% 9405-6206 (15611)
ohioism	Downavg 66.7¢	$67.1	$100.66	+$33.56	76% 26083-8095 (34178)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 66¢	$66.03	$100.05	+$34.02	65% 13433-7163 (20596)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Downavg 87.8¢	$45.47	$47.99	+$2.52	56% 11593-9158 (20751)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95.6¢	$44.47	$46.5	+$2.03	63% 18916-11136 (30052)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 65¢	$29.4	$40	+$10.6	57% 10536-7912 (18448)
GO GoodFallen<$100	Downavg 66.6¢	$38.08	$41.41	+$3.32	58% 12845-9170 (22015)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 95.5¢	$37.05	$37.31	+$0.26	62% 16943-10499 (27442)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,441.27

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$22.95

Record

56%

13478-10508 (23986)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$584.66

Value

$646.5

PnL

+$61.84

Record

56%

7630-6002 (13632)

THG.

Down

Invested

$516.1

Value

$521.31

PnL

+$5.21

Record

75%

12222-4046 (16268)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$372.28

Value

$399.41

PnL

+$27.13

Record

56%

6853-5332 (12185)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$344.08

Value

$388.26

PnL

+$44.18

Record

57%

32394-24860 (57254)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$344.02

Value

$353.33

PnL

+$9.31

Record

58%

16129-11743 (27872)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$208.65

Value

$245.62

PnL

+$36.97

Record

56%

14558-11290 (25848)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$171.6

Value

$230

PnL

+$58.4

Record

57%

11559-8884 (20443)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$165

Value

$167.04

PnL

+$2.04

Record

54%

9455-8054 (17509)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$120.4

Value

$142.07

PnL

+$21.68

Record

55%

6678-5484 (12162)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$117.88

Value

$105

PnL

-$12.88

Record

83%

27963-5718 (33681)

Both legs:

Down$101.2596.4¢+$3.75

Up$16.634¢-$16.63

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$131.82

Value

$143.21

PnL

+$11.38

Record

61%

11466-7473 (18939)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$122.36

Value

$143.75

PnL

+$21.39

Record

55%

14644-11771 (26415)

OhioRiskManagement

Down

Invested

$124.03

Value

$133.33

PnL

+$9.3

Record

60%

15015-9882 (24897)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$93.12

Value

$88

PnL

-$5.12

Record

49%

4584-4697 (9281)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$62.04

Value

$91

PnL

+$28.96

Record

65%

14972-7993 (22965)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$42.71

Value

$43.03

PnL

+$0.32

Record

59%

15172-10589 (25761)

Both legs:

Down$40.0893.1¢+$2.95

Up$2.631¢-$2.63

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$55

Value

$60

PnL

+$5

Record

60%

9405-6206 (15611)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$67.1

Value

$100.66

PnL

+$33.56

Record

76%

26083-8095 (34178)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$66.03

Value

$100.05

PnL

+$34.02

Record

65%

13433-7163 (20596)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Down

Invested

$45.47

Value

$47.99

PnL

+$2.52

Record

56%

11593-9158 (20751)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$44.47

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$2.03

Record

63%

18916-11136 (30052)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$29.4

Value

$40

PnL

+$10.6

Record

57%

10536-7912 (18448)

GoodFallen<$100

Down

Invested

$38.08

Value

$41.41

PnL

+$3.32

Record

58%

12845-9170 (22015)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$37.05

Value

$37.31

PnL

+$0.26

Record

62%

16943-10499 (27442)

Smart Money Signal

Down

32 of 34 top traders (94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2923691e...6a552e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792934700

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.5K

+$22.95

machinelearned

Down — $646.5

+$61.84

THG.

Down — $521.31

+$5.21

wzbbb

Down — $399.41

+$27.13

uninformedfloww

Down — $388.26

+$44.18

MayorMamdani

Down — $353.33

+$9.31

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $245.62

+$36.97

FairValueMachine

Down — $230

+$58.4

thesidehustle

Down — $167.04

+$2.04

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $142.07

+$21.68

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