Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 76%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

$282.51

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 34 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,067

Combined PnL+$491.31

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares599

Combined PnL-$208.8

Down — 76%Up — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 54.4¢	$428.67	$510.34	+$81.67	56% 14564-11296 (25860)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 76.6¢	$570.15	$490.92	-$79.23	56% 13486-10515 (24001)
machinelearned	Downavg 63.9¢	$376.33	$500.76	+$124.42	56% 7634-6010 (13644)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 64.2¢	$349.5	$317.88	-$31.62	56% 6862-5338 (12200)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 50.7¢	$248.4	$308.96	+$60.57	58% 12849-9178 (22027)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 58.1¢	$309.57	$270.13	-$39.43	57% 10546-7917 (18463)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 67.1¢	$237.95	$256.75	+$18.8	61% 11473-7481 (18954)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 59.5¢	$215.97	$363	+$147.03	71% 20519-8381 (28900)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$157.08	$164.82	+$7.74	57% 11563-8892 (20455)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$87.75	$164.82	+$77.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.6¢	$69.33	—	-$69.33
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 68.8¢	$150.82	$139.43	-$11.39	55% 6685-5492 (12177)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.8¢	$95.98	$139.43	+$43.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.2¢	$54.84	—	-$54.84
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 64.2¢	$77.11	$107.23	+$30.13	56% 11603-9163 (20766)
TH thesidehustle	Downavg 66.5¢	$89.16	$104.27	+$15.11	54% 9474-8067 (17541)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 43.6¢	$70.24	$148.33	+$78.09	83% 59683-11828 (71511)
BO BonereaperCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$80	—	-$80	70% 46480-19752 (66232)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100	Downavg 71.7¢	$72.85	$81.2	+$8.36	62% 16951-10506 (27457)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 64.8¢	$93.88	$76.67	-$17.22	49% 4584-4698 (9282)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 99¢	$59.93	$60.54	+$0.61	62% 40596-24877 (65473)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 73.8¢	$60.35	$54.24	-$6.11	59% 19613-13491 (33104)
SP spartacray<$100	Downavg 66.4¢	$49.08	$59.99	+$10.92	56% 18725-14487 (33212)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$36.82	$57.03	+$20.21	67% 13414-6676 (20090)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100	Downavg 57¢	$54.35	$95.35	+$41	52% 14164-13019 (27183)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$50.19	—	-$50.19	58% 11025-8080 (19105)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$30.73	$42.44	+$11.71	76% 23856-7556 (31412)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$39.76	$25.5	-$14.26	65% 14977-8003 (22980)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$21.8	$30.9	+$9.1	55% 14649-11779 (26428)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$428.67

Value

$510.34

PnL

+$81.67

Record

56%

14564-11296 (25860)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$570.15

Value

$490.92

PnL

-$79.23

Record

56%

13486-10515 (24001)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$376.33

Value

$500.76

PnL

+$124.42

Record

56%

7634-6010 (13644)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$349.5

Value

$317.88

PnL

-$31.62

Record

56%

6862-5338 (12200)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$248.4

Value

$308.96

PnL

+$60.57

Record

58%

12849-9178 (22027)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$309.57

Value

$270.13

PnL

-$39.43

Record

57%

10546-7917 (18463)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$237.95

Value

$256.75

PnL

+$18.8

Record

61%

11473-7481 (18954)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$215.97

Value

$363

PnL

+$147.03

Record

71%

20519-8381 (28900)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.08

Value

$164.82

PnL

+$7.74

Record

57%

11563-8892 (20455)

Both legs:

Down$87.7553.2¢+$77.07

Up$69.3346.6¢-$69.33

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150.82

Value

$139.43

PnL

-$11.39

Record

55%

6685-5492 (12177)

Both legs:

Down$95.9868.8¢+$43.45

Up$54.8426.2¢-$54.84

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$77.11

Value

$107.23

PnL

+$30.13

Record

56%

11603-9163 (20766)

thesidehustle

Down

Invested

$89.16

Value

$104.27

PnL

+$15.11

Record

54%

9474-8067 (17541)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$70.24

Value

$148.33

PnL

+$78.09

Record

83%

59683-11828 (71511)

BonereaperCTR<$100

Invested

$80

Value

—

PnL

-$80

Record

70%

46480-19752 (66232)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b<$100

Down

Invested

$72.85

Value

$81.2

PnL

+$8.36

Record

62%

16951-10506 (27457)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$93.88

Value

$76.67

PnL

-$17.22

Record

49%

4584-4698 (9282)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$59.93

Value

$60.54

PnL

+$0.61

Record

62%

40596-24877 (65473)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$60.35

Value

$54.24

PnL

-$6.11

Record

59%

19613-13491 (33104)

spartacray<$100

Down

Invested

$49.08

Value

$59.99

PnL

+$10.92

Record

56%

18725-14487 (33212)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$36.82

Value

$57.03

PnL

+$20.21

Record

67%

13414-6676 (20090)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507<$100

Down

Invested

$54.35

Value

$95.35

PnL

+$41

Record

52%

14164-13019 (27183)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$50.19

Value

—

PnL

-$50.19

Record

58%

11025-8080 (19105)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$30.73

Value

$42.44

PnL

+$11.71

Record

76%

23856-7556 (31412)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894<$100

Down

Invested

$39.76

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$14.26

Record

65%

14977-8003 (22980)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$21.8

Value

$30.9

PnL

+$9.1

Record

55%

14649-11779 (26428)

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 34 top traders (76%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcc355154...d0701a

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1792934400

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $510.34

+$81.67

CrouchPredictions

Down — $490.92

-$79.23

machinelearned

Down — $500.76

+$124.42

wzbbb

Down — $317.88

-$31.62

GoodFallen

Down — $308.96

+$60.57

EZTRADENL2

Down — $270.13

-$39.43

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $256.75

+$18.8

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $363

+$147.03

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.74

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.39

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